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From the GREAT STATE OF MAINE...
Are things so bad? Not today, they ain't. Jeering takes a lot more energy than cheering, so today you and I are teammates at the Endorphin Olympics. Let's start the feel-good marathon with some comforting words from Mark Mellman, senior strategist for the Kerry/Edwards campaign (edited from an email we received yesterday to highlight the best stuff):
"By any standard, President Bush heads into his convention in a very weak position. His current position stems from the fact that voters judge the incumbent on his performance and on the state of the nation. By this measure, the president is in grave difficulty. There are some basic benchmarks by which an incumbent's success can be measured as the campaign heads into the fall:
- The average winning incumbent has had a job approval rating of 60%. Indeed, every incumbent who has won reelection has had his job approval in the mid-50's or higher at this point. In recent polling, Bush's average approval rating has been 48%.
- In recent years, when incumbents have gone on to victory, 52% of voters, on average, said the country was on the right track. Now, just 37% think things are moving in the right direction.
- Every incumbent who has gone on to be reelected has had a double-digit lead at this point.
- Incumbents who went on to win reelection had an average lead of 27 points after their convention. Indeed, the average elected incumbent---winners and losers---had a lead of 16 points after their conventions.
An average bounce would still leave Bush well below the historical mark set by other incumbents, particularly those who went on to victory. Perhaps most important, the average elected incumbent experienced a 4-point drop in his share of the two-party vote from the post-convention polling to Election Day. Thus, to beat the odds, President Bush will need to be garnering 55% of the two-party vote after his convention. Anything less than that and the president will remain in grave political danger.
Grave...Political...Danger.
"Cheers and Cheers starts in the Extended Copy section... [Swooosh!] RIGHTNOW! [Gong!]
Cheers and Cheers for Wednesday, August 25, 2004
By the Numbers:
Days 'til Republican Convention: 5
Days `til the First Debate: 36
Days 'til General Election: 69
U.S. Olympic medals: 72 (25 gold)
http://www.electoral-vote.com/ : Kerry 280 Bush 238
CHEERS to Driving Osama bin Daisy. The evil one's personal driver, Salim Ahmed Hamdan, becomes the first detainee to be arraigned in Guantanamo: http://www.cnn.com/2004/LAW/08/24/gitmo.detainees/index.html. He'll likely get the severest penalty available: 20 years in line at the DMV.
CHEERS to smart Floridians. Poll shows that Bush's post-hurricane trip to the Sunshine State didn't do anything to help his numbers there. Actually, he should be thankful they didn't blame it on him.
CHEERS to the straight man. John Kerry wisely agrees to appear on The Daily Show (Great pic: http://images.usatoday.com/news/_photos/2004/08/24/kerry-daily.jpg), giving Jon Stewart a chance to do 15 minutes of stand-up about Bush's dirty tricks and mistakes. But a little free C&J advice, Senator: America doesn't want to know what goes on when you report for duty in the men's room.
CHEERS to enduring celluloid. Today is the 2nd monthiversary of the release of `Fahrenheit 9/11.' Its domestic haul so far: $117 million, making it the #11 film of 2004. And that's just for starters. The second shoe drops---on DVD---October 5.
CHEERS to twisted briefs. The Underoos at the Family Research Council are in post-wedgie position this morning, thanks to Cheney's apparent flip-flop on his gay marriage stance: http://www.frc.org/get.cfm?i=PR04H08. Someone at Secret service is going to pay for losing track of Dick's medication schedule.
CHEERS to pissed-off Democrats. The DNC raised almost two million bucks more than the RNC in July. Chris Bowers at MyDD has the details: http://www.mydd.com/story/2004/8/24/13510/6094. Man...we can only imagine what it's like now for Republicans who thought this election was going to be a slam-dunk for Bush. I believe the term is shell shock.
CHEERS to Verona Johnston. At 114, the Worthington, Ohio resident---a retired Latin teacher---is the oldest living American. She lived on her own until 98, and traveled solo until 100. She tells Time magazine, "You can get too old to enjoy life [but] I never got that old." Finally...we have a running mate for Granny D.
CHEERS to Pulitzer-winning copy. The most heart-warming line on today's New York Times Op-Ed page: "William Safire is on vacation."
CHEERS to great moments in pop culture. On August 25, 1979, The Knack's "My Sharona"---with a bass line par excellence---started its 6-week reign at #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 chart. All together now: "My! My! My! I! Yi! Woo!"
CHEERS to Charley Reese. I missed this conservative writer's May 17 column, and you may have, too, but it's a whopper. He's off the Bush bandwagon in no uncertain terms: http://www.lewrockwell.com/reese/reese74.html. You may applaud politely.
CHEERS to nerd power. The New York Jets couldn't find hotel rooms in downtown Indianapolis August 20th when they traveled to play the Colts. They were all taken by folks in town for a Star Trek convention. Not exactly the crowd to mess around with when you realize that half of their phasers actually work.
CHEERS to the Scrappy Scot. Happy 74th birthday, Sean Connery. Today we officially forgive you for `League of Extraordinary Gentlemen.'
CHEERS to the Al Franken Show, Part 1. Radio hit a high point yesterday when `Boston Public' star Fyvush Finkel stopped by to co-host the `Oy Oy Oy Show.' Further proof that Al has a quality Limbaugh, O'Reilly and Hannity never will: effervescence. (Thank you, Roget's.)
CHEERS to the Al Franken Show, Part 2. Last month, during his Good Ribbin' segment, Al spoke with listeners at Big Bob Gibson's Barbeque in Decatur, Alabama, which boasted of having the best red sauce in the country. C&J tried a bottle. Now we order it by the case. You won't be sorry: http://www.bigbobgibson.com/Merchant2/merchant.mv?Screen=CTGY&Store_Code=BBGB&Category_Code=
S. Tell `em Franken sent ya---we might pick up another southern vote or two.
CHEERS to warped minds. Tim Burton turns 44 today. `Ed Wood' and `Beetlejuice' remain two of our favorites. And these guys just keep getting better with age: http://users.breathe.com/redplanet/ambass.jpg. Ack Ack!!
CHEERS to Jerry Goldsmith. All the recent Vietnam-related hullabaloo gave us the reason we needed to pull out the recently-departed film composer's red-blooded action scores for the three `Rambo' movies. And I'll be darned if they don't provide the perfect backdrop for this cut-throat election season. By November 2, the landlord's gonna have to come over and re-caulk the windows.
CHEERS to CNN's `Crossfire.' The one show on TV the elderly can watch without ever having to turn on their BelTones. (Or brains.)
CHEERS to Thanksgiving, 2004. Yesterday Eric Alterman featured this delicious parable from reader David Bernstein of Boston: "So, my extended family is all gathered around for Thanksgiving dinner, and my sister's boyfriend starts telling these horrendous lies about our uncle Pete---about how his war medals are all based on lies, and how Pete's not really a hero, etc. Everything he's saying is obviously made up, but he won't shut up about it. So I turn to my sister and say: "Will you please tell your boyfriend to shut up with that crap about Uncle Pete?" And she says: "No, but I do object in principle to ALL non-blood-relatives being allowed to speak at the dinner table. I hope you'll join me in calling for all of these outsiders to be silenced." Ha!
Floor's open. What are you cheering and...um, cheering about today?
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