Sweet merciful crap. Reading
the thread about the latest LA Times poll, I thought it was November 6, 2002 around here all over again (or January 20, 2004). And to think that just two days ago a post-SBL Zogby poll showed
Kerry leading in 14 out the 16 closest states. To think that within the last week, two polls have shown the race tied--
in Colorado after the SBVfT. To think that a post SBVfT
Economist poll today showed Bush with an approval rating double-digits in the red, and direction of the country numbers more than twenty points in the red. To think that even
Real Clear Politics shows Kerry up by 3.4--and they use the
LV models that are consistently pro-Bush whenever possible.
Listen up you soup-spined, knee-knocking numbnuts: no matter how much you seem to enjoy panicking, Bush's poll numbers suck, and it is time for you to learn to deal with it. The LA Times is definitely not a pro-Dem poll. In fact, their job approval ratings for Bush, both national and statewide, are easily the most pro-GOP of any other outfit. Hell, in July, they had Bush at 56/40 approve / disapprove in Florida. Even in the June poll that supposedly was biased toward Kerry, Bush's approval rating was 51/47 pre-Reagan, the second highest he had the entire month of June.
How can anyone call the LA Times, in all of is four glorious datapoints, a pro-Dem poll because exactly one of its datapoints--from June--showed Kerry up six? That defies all reasonable explanation. Even further, how can anyone think Kerry is doomed because one poll shows Bush under 50 and Kerry within the MoE? Incumbents lose in that position far more often than they win. So, even Bush's good news still favors Kerry!
In 156 out of 180 polls taken in AZ, AR, CO, FL, MO, NV, NH, NC, OH, TN, VA and WV since Super Tuesday,
Bush is under 50. Bush's trial heat average from the last five polls from each of these states shows him under 50, and Kerry either leading or within the MoE. In 2000, Bush won all twelve of these states, worth 136 EV's, and right now he is in danger in all of them.
Bush has led by one point or more in less than 10 out of the more than 200 post-Super Tuesday polls taken in states Gore won by less than 7 points. He has reached 50 in only two of them---both in Wisconsin, and both from the wildly pro-Bush Badger poll. Kerry only has to pickup 10 EV's out of 136 in states where Bush in under 50, and we are supposed to panick? What the hell is wrong with you people?!
Nationally, Bush has been slowly losing ground to Kerry since April. Even with the LA Times poll, nationally Bush is still stuck at around 44-46% in the vast majority of trail heats. He averages 46% unfavorable, while Kerry only averages 36% unfavorables.
This is not going to be an uninterrupted, slow climb to the top for Kerry. There will be hiccups--there have been hiccups before. In a world where a story is old news if it happened six hours ago, it might be hard to remember but Reagan was a zillion times worse than all of this SBVfT crap. In June, Harris, the most reliable pollster of them all, showed Bush up 10 way outside the MoE right in the middle of the Reagan stuff. Kerry led in only 3 out of 16 polls conducted the entire month of June. And that happened after May, when Kerry had finally pulled ahead of Bush in some trial heats after being slightly behind during most of March and April. This is nothing compared to the damage Gipperporn wreaked on the polls.
If not being down by more than the MoE in any poll for two months isn't good enough for you, if Bush basically never, ever reaching 50 either nationally or in the 21 closest states isn't good enough for you, if the well-documented fact that undecided usually break overwhelmingly for the challenger isn't enough for you, I suggest you stop paying close attention to polls and politics. If you can only avoid panicking when a poll shows Kerry up by more than the MoE in August (which actually indicates that the race is going to be a Kerry blowout), then I don't think you have the guts to be a political junkie, much less an activist. Kerry remains in an extremely solid position, and in less than two weeks SBVfT will be long forgotten.
And if nothing else can convince you, just think that if the best news Bush can muster up about his poll numbers is a single outlier showing him up 3 in August, then things must really be bad for him. I mean, if one poll that shows Kerry with a 50% shot to win causes panick, what have the other 400+ shown?