[UPDATE. I THOUGHT I ADDED THIS EARLIER BUT IT'S NOT THERE ANY MORE. GIVEN THE NEWSWEEK POLL. TIME IS NOT AN OUTLIER. THE CRITICISM ABOUT TIME FRAMES STILL HOLDS. JK WOULD HAVE HAD HIGHER NUMBERS IF THEY POLLED DURING OUR CONVENTION NOT AFTER. BUT WE HAVE TO TAKE THIS FOR WHAT IT IS. THEY WENT NEGATIVE FOR 3 DAYS (EVEN NUTTY ZELL WAS EFFECTIVE BECAUSE THERE NO LONGER IS A MAINSTREAM MEDIA IN CONTROL OF THE AIRWAVES AS THERE WAS IN '92 THAT CONDEMNED BUCHANAN'S SPEECH) AND THEN BUSH WAS MOSTLY POSITIVE. WE AND THE CAMPAIGN HAVE TO GO BACK TO REMIND PEOPLE ALL OVER AGAIN WHAT IS WRONG WITH GW BUSH AND RIGHT WITH KERRY.
Armando asked me to take the emails I wrote and make a diary of it. [nbsp;Some of this is my take and a lot of it comes from Armando. But it takes a lot of problems with this poll and explains why it is a manipulated outlier.
[Armando says to recommend this diary. Honest!!!]
First i wrote to Hardball and the Note and Wolf Blitzer. I tried writing to Woodruff and to Mark leibovich of the Washington Post, who had been on Hardball, about the date discrepancy. But the Leibovich and Woodruff one came back. When I read Armando's post I incorporated his points into a second post to these folks. Armando is right, going from not pushing leaners just prior to the convention and then pushing them during the the convention does manipulate the figures. It seems inexplicable in terms of methodology.
I am going to send another email to Ruy Texeira and to a contact at the DNC.
I will copy and paste my 2 emails into this thread. Feel free to use it. I can't keep wtiing because I am getting bleary and punchy.
Please Note that this polling company did something unheard of during a convention they pushed the the undecided likely voters to make a choice. Also again I want to point out that this poll was done during the RNC while the Time poll for the DNC was done 5-7 days later, not at the height of the convention.
Why is this bad? Because this far out you don't push leaners. Because you don't push undecideds during a convention. The reason is obvious from they are caught in the moment to they have no contradictory information yet and they are involved and not distracted.
Note the dates of 8/24-26 in which Kerry and Bush are tied 46-46 just prior to the Republican convention. In the LV section this date has an asterisk next to it.The asterisk says that in that poll they didn't push the leaners. BUT in the convention poll they did push the leaners. This act alone, just changing from not pushing the leaners to pushing the leaners surely accounts for much of the seemingly large difference. This change in methodology raises questions. And why are they not aware of the methodological problems and why don't they tell us.
This indicates even more so that this poll should be or played down.
Time Poll conducted by SRBI Public Affairs. Aug. 31-Sept. 2, 2004. N=1,128 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 3), 926 likely voters (MoE ± 4).
.
"Suppose the 2004 election for president were being held today, and you had to choose between John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats, and George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans. For whom would you vote?" If undecided: "Even though you haven't made up your mind yet, do you lean more toward supporting Kerry or Bush?
Bush/
Cheney Kerry/
Edwards Other
(vol.) Unsure
% % % %
Among likely voters:
8/31 - 9/2/04
53 43 1 3
8/24-26/04*
46 46 - 7
8/3-5/04
44 51 1 4
7/20-22/04
46 50 1 3
.
Among registered voters:
8/31 - 9/2/04
50 42 1 7
8/3-5/04
43 51 1 5
7/20-22/04
45 50 1 4
.
* Excludes leaners
ANOTHER EMAIL
Dear Mr. Leibovich:
I saw you on Hardball and I was astonished by your credulity toward this poll. This Time poll for reasons that professionally are hard to fathom was conducted during the Republican convention. Please note below that the Time poll also showed the greatest lead for Kerry after the convention. But it was not conducted during the convention, but 5-7 days after.
The DNC Time poll was conducted 5 days after the convention ended. 5 days afterward, not during and after the terrorism alert, Kerry lead Bush by 51-44among RV's and 51-44 amongst LV's. This was also outside the margin of error. I don't recall you or anyone else in the press using that earlier poll to say that Kerry was beating Bush. You all kept to the CW tht the race was a statistical tie. For the entire spring Kerry was ahead of Bush in 90% of the polls within and without the margin of error and you all stuck to the "it's tied" CW. When it really wasn't.
This present poll inexplicably was conducted during the height of the convention when Repubs were likely home watching and Dems weren't. The only poll I know of during the Democratic convention was an overnight Newsweek poll which showed Kerry 54-Bush 41. If Time or others polled during the convention then Kerry also would have had higher numbers. So it brings up a question of why are they polling during the RNC convention, the most labile time frame, but not during the DNC? Who and why do they make such a decision? Even if there is no "manipulative" reason it is still comparing apples to grapefruit and so should be played down not played up.
Why are you so ready to credit Bush and the RNC with brilliance when even now there are other polls like Zogby which shows a small Bush lead, 48-46 and ARG which shows a tie. Why are you highlighting this poll which has timing and methodological problems. Why is the press so ready to roll over when Republicans call the shots. What is it, Pavlovian conditioning.? Well it could be?
There is an interesting possible methodological problem, which is ,for some reason, they first ask to speak to a male ,and if the male is not there they then ask to speak to a woman. This could skew the poll Republican as women skew Democratic.
All in all you are making too much at this point of very little. But the fat that this poll and the RN C's efficacy does create a story line that biases a future outcome.
Debra
by debcoop on Sat Sep 4th, 2004 at 02:15:57 EST
[UPDATE Please check out my reply to Eugene further down the thread. He makes a point worth considering. That pushing the leaners did push people to Bush. I think that the pool of changables is higher than the small undecided numbers showed prior to the RNC. And this does indicate that we have work to do. The Kerry campaign has to remind people over again why they were unhappy with GWB prior to his convention. We have to push this stone back up the mountain again.]
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Can you tell me some email addresses (none / 0)
so I can bombard them with this email?
by hillarious on Sat Sep 4th, 2004 at 02:17:56 EST
[ Parent | Reply to This | none0: Super Troll1: Troll2: Marginal3: Good4: Excellent ]
Email addresses (none / 0)
Courtesy of 9/11 Visibility Project:
http://www.septembereleventh.org/mediaemails.php