The
new Ohio Poll conducted by the University of Cincinnati shows some pretty bad trends for the Kerry camp.
9/12-9/18 (August results in parentheses)
456 likely voters, MOE: 4.6%
Kerry/Edwards 43 (48)
Bush/Cheney 54 (46)
Nader/Camejo 2 (1)
Other 0 (1)
Undecided 1 (4)
Yes that's right folks, it's a 13 point swing in one month. Bush is over 50 by almost the margin of error. Seems to me that Kerry's main problem is that he is just barely pulling 50% in urban areas while Bush has a 25 point lead in the suburbs and rural areas. This does seem to contradict some of the post-convention polls in OH, but the UC poll has been known to be a little right leaning. It's probably something to do with their likely voter model. Still, if polls continue to agree with this one, it could mean the end Kerry's hopes in Ohio. Being on the ground here, I don't think Bush has an 11 point lead but he probably does have a few points at least. Kerry needs the debates to swing the soft Bush support to him.