Daily Kos

The Next Week

by Petey

Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:52:28 AM PDT

While NH always has the potential to surprise, the results look in reasonably sharp focus.  

Kerry's going to win big, and open up a shining path to the nomination.  Dean's going to get his far off second, and Edwards will beat Clark.  If someone really surprises today, it could obviously change everything I've written below.  But let's assume today goes according to script.

So what's the next week going to look like?

Edwards looks reasonably safe in SC.  I don't think Kerry has the resources to make a strong effort there.  And I think Clark is too wounded to be a serious challenger.  The one caveat would be if Clymer threw in with Kerry.

OK is a battleground.  It should be a test of whether Clark has any kind of pulse, and whether Edwards can mount a mulit-state campaign.

Dean is thinking about concentrating on NM and AZ, but I'd imagine he'll have trouble getting any traction against Kerry there.  This could be a very discouraging week for Dean.  They don't have an easy route to a win anywhere, unless the field gives them Delaware.  I imagine Burlington will be tempted to play lightly next week, and make a stand in MI, but that strategy has its own perils.

The real prize is going to be MO.  This could be the real showdown between Edwards and Kerry, assuming Kerry leaves SC alone.  I've seen reports that Geppy isn't going to endorse before MO, and even if this is true, he can still throw his support short of an actual endorsement.  It makes little sense for him to go anywhere but Kerry.  Because of this is the kind of support that should really help its recipient, I'd strongly assume Kerry has a smooth inside track in MO.

Shorter Petey on Feb 3 results:

If Clymer and Geppy throw in with Kerry, he could really swamp the field.  If not, Edwards has an outside shot at putting his finger in the dike.  Dean doesn't have much of an opening.

---

Taking an even longer view:

Dean is clearly the undead at this point.  I expect him to survive until Mar 2, and expect him to get his god given share of NY and CA delegates, which is about 25% in a 3 candidate field, or 37% of a 2 candidate field.  But he's going to have trouble winning more than a state or two beyond Vermont.

Edwards is still alive, but just barely.  Unless he can quickly demonstrate that NH happened because it's in Kerry's backyard, he will join Dean in being undead.

If Edwards doesn't reverse the tide this week, we're looking at a very simiilar replay of '88 with Kerry as Dukakis, Edwards as Gore, and Dean as Jackson.

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Permalink | 19 comments

  •  Do you (none / 0)

    mean Clyburne instead of Clymer?

    I'm too disgusted right now to think of a sig.

    by Ga6thDem on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:59:08 AM PDT

  •  I know, I should post in the correct diary... (none / 1)

    Deja vu:

    Unless it's an absolute blowout, Kerry by 30 points, I think next week's a mess.  I don't see anyone running the board next week, and it's possible there will be three different primary winners.  Not sure if a win out of Delaware will give anyone a lift, but a South win, a West win, or a Midwest win is probably a ticket to the next round.

    We're going to the golden arches our life's so perfect it glows - Graham Parker

    by PSoTD on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 10:41:22 AM PDT

    •  Re: I should post in the correct diary (none / 1)

      This seems like the correct diary to me...

      Visit Petey's Diary

      by Petey on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 10:46:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Next Week (none / 0)

      "Unless it's an absolute blowout, Kerry by 30 points, I think next week's a mess.  I don't see anyone running the board next week, and it's possible there will be three different primary winners.  Not sure if a win out of Delaware will give anyone a lift, but a South win, a West win, or a Midwest win is probably a ticket to the next round. "

      I think Kerry wins by 20, not 30, but it's still hard to see where he gets beat, other than maybe SC, and maybe OK and ND.  He should have a clear path to MO, AZ, NM.  And if he really gets his act together, he could swamp OK, ND, and SC too.

      Visit Petey's Diary

      by Petey on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 10:49:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Visibility foggy (none / 0)

        He should have a clear path to MO, AZ, NM.  And if he really gets his act together, he could swamp OK, ND, and SC too.

        I guess I see it in a different light.

        The past week has been the reaction to Iowa's anti-Dean caucus recommendation.  Most of the news outside of New Hampshire has been about Dean's collapse, or Kerry's poll swelling (children, look away), and hasn't been about the candidates' positions much at all.  (Except for the Michael Moore/Clark episode)

        If the Dean result ends up as how the pollsters are showing it, the 1 day buzz will be Kerry's momentum.

        But where does the news media go after that?  If Kerry is all but declared the nominee, what will they fill their pages/broadcasts with - Kerry versus Bush already?  I think not.  The same news folks that marvelled about Kerry's surge still want a horserace to report.  So...

        If Kerry wins decisively today, I suspect free media will go against him next week considerably.

        We're going to the golden arches our life's so perfect it glows - Graham Parker

        by PSoTD on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 10:59:24 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Petey is Blue (4.00 / 7)

    Petey feels as blue today as an injured dog lying in the middle of the road.  He feels as blue as the Dean supporters felt last Monday.

    It's never fun to sense a faint stentch of coming death on your beloved candidate.

    Give Petey some mojo to let him know you love him.  Or give him some bad ratings to let him know you care.

    I can see John Edwards debating George Bush so clearly, goddamnit!  I can see him running a good, successful, and popular administration, goddamnit!

    Visit Petey's Diary

    by Petey on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 10:45:11 AM PDT

    •  I'm not blue, I'm red...just like the country! (4.00 / 3)

      The big winner here is Bush, and don't try to tell me otherwise!

      Don't like XOM and OPEC? What have YOU done to reduce your oil consumption? Hot air does NOT constitute a renewable resource!

      by Asak on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 10:50:47 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  But the Media (none / 1)

      But the media wants John Kerry to be the nominee, so that they can stage the big Liberal v. Conservative culture war that they have planned for the remainder of the year.

      Give to the Daily KOS 8!

      by Aaron Gillies on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:07:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Media want Dean (none / 0)

        The media clearly want Dean to be the nominee.  Look at Tim Russert announcing the Zogby poll this morning and you could see somebody very unhappy.  He has been totally harsh in all his interviews with Kerry.  Media even yesterday were claiming a comeback for Dean, talking of "anecdotal evidences", given they dont have anything else.

        The voters have decided the opposite in IA.  We will see what they decide now in NH and next week in SC. MO, and others.

        by votekerry on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 11:14:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  If you really like Edwards (none / 0)

      You ought to see it as tremendously positive.  He'll have the next 4 years of a likely Bush administration if Kerry is really the inevitable Dem nominee to work his message and even get into the Dean "take back the government" message.  I, personally, see his current "Two Americas" message as hurriedly contrived but its not cast in stone as THE Edwards message for all time.  Edwards is in a great position, IMO. He'll have gotten more out of this than he expected to and learned a lot (especially not to take the matching funds; no serious candidate will ever again take the federal matching funds).

      by Lois on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 12:36:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Dude, (none / 0)

      open the garage door before you start your car next time.

      Petey, buddy, Edwards is in the catbird's seat if he beats Clark in New Hampshire.  He'll blow Clark's doors off in Oklahoma and South Carolina and he just might win North Dakota.

      And with Kerry's lovely comment about "winning without the South" I don't see him getting over 10 percent in South Carolina.

      Today is not going to be a Kerry blowout - Zogby's on speed.  It's going to be a close win by Kerry that is close enough to delude Dean into thinking he has a shot on 2/3 (which he won't) and which deprives Kerry of the oxygen he needs to dominate the field.

      The big result will be the death of the Wes Clark campaign, to the clear benefit of our boy Johnny.

      Buck up, big guy.  

      "Man is free at the moment he wishes to be." - Voltaire

      by DrFrankLives on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 03:42:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Re: Dude, (none / 0)

        Petey, buddy, Edwards is in the catbird's seat if he beats Clark in New Hampshire.  He'll blow Clark's doors off in Oklahoma and South Carolina and he just might win North Dakota.

        Today is not going to be a Kerry blowout - Zogby's on speed.  It's going to be a close win by Kerry that is close enough to delude Dean into thinking he has a shot on 2/3 (which he won't) and which deprives Kerry of the oxygen he needs to dominate the field.

        well, after the first round of exit polls showed Clark and Edwards tied, i felt really blue.  but i feel better now.

        i agree that the closeness at the top is good.  however, Edwards still needs to outperform on Feb 3 to keep this thing alive.  SC and OK are good, but considering where the race goes on Feb 7, i think he needs MO, flat and simple.

        Visit Petey's Diary

        by Petey on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 06:21:35 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Edwards (none / 0)

    Edwards made a huge mistake taking the federal matching funds.  Gee, has he ever got to be kicking himself for that one. The big Democratic donors all know about the problems with that $45 million limit, which will be exhausted by the end of March, and then 4 months - a WHOLE FOUR MONTHS because the conventions are so late - of a Democratic nominee who isn't allowed to spend any money vs Bush with $200 million.  The thing about that push polling issue is that they don't have to tell the truth!  

     Kerry is a terrible candidate, as proven by his having had to loan himself $8.6 million.  

    by Lois on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 12:24:42 PM PDT

    •  Edwards matching funds (none / 0)

      I agree, taking the matching funds was a huge mistake for Edwards.

      The weird thing is, he really didn't need the money.  JE is worth somewhere betweeen $30 and $70 million, not sure how much he's received in matching fund, but it can't be more than $10 million. He could written a check for that himself, or more practically, taken out a loan against other assets.

      Instead he's hamstrung by spending limits.

      by Beowulf on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 01:11:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  FMF is a Lie (none / 0)

        The FMF issue is a lie straight out of Burlington.

        The 527 committees will prop up any Dem candidate this spring and summer with amounts that will dwarf the hard money available to any candidate, cap-buster or not.

        Gore was not overmatched in this time period in '00, specifically because of soft money.

        It will be the same this year.

        Visit Petey's Diary

        by Petey on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 04:43:23 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

Permalink | 19 comments