Daily Kos: A squeaker on its way

A squeaker on its way

by kos

Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 07:57:59 PM PDT

The 1 p.m. tracking polls had the LA Times exit polling operation giving Dean the slight lead, while the media consortium gave Kerry the lead. The 4 p.m. results supposedly show similar numbers.

In other words, a true tossup. They may actually have to count votes before declaring a winner tonight.

Tags: (all tags) :: Previous Tag Versions

Woah! (3.50 / 2)

Great to see Dean bounce back!

"How do you ask a man to be the last to die for a mistake?" -John Kerry, 1971 but what we needed to hear in 2003/2004

by Demise on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 07:59:48 PM PDT
- Close = Win for Dean (none / 1)
  
  Considering that Dean was hammered relentlessly by the media for the past week (and not just hammered, humiliated), giving his opponents the equivalent of millions of dollars worth of attack ads, I personally would consider Dean coming in a strong second a big victory, giving him a lot of momentum.
  
  "Animals are my friends. And I don't eat my friends." -- George Bernard Shaw
  
  by Hudson on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:57:20 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
  - Go to CNN for the "Buzz" poll (none / 1)
    
    They are asking if Dean needs to actually beat Kerry to be having a "comeback"
    As diligent guardian of those mobile goalposts, I of course voted NO.
    The YESES are ahead, though
    
    The Perfect is the Enemy of the Better
    
    by dabize on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:21:17 PM PDT
    
    [ Parent ]
In The End... (3.50 / 2)

For the past week or so I've been hearing Dean's folks say that if they are within 5 points or so they would consider it a win. Now that we look like it may be just that tight: if Dean comes out on the losing side do Deaniacs still consider that a "win"?

by Smolen22 on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:00:41 PM PDT
- win (none / 1)
  
  Well, this Dean supporter would consider it a victory, considering that Kerry has no money and no ground troops in 2/3 states.
  
  by NYCO on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:02:19 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
  - Kerry's Southern Strategy (4.00 / 2)
    
    I believe JK said something this week to the effect that his southern strategy would be to take Missouri and Ohio and all the states Gore took, then that's enough.
    A valid national strategy unless you actually say it aloud to the press.
    
    The moral arc of the universe is long, but it bends towards justice. - Martin Luther King, Jr.
    
    by easong on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:05:03 PM PDT
    
    [ Parent ]
    - So... (none / 0)
      
      Would that qualify as a 'gaffe'?
      
      The times, they are a-changin'
      
      by Malacandra on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:16:09 PM PDT
      
      [ Parent ]
      - Hmm... (3.66 / 3)
        
        Well, under the Dean Definition where a gaffe is where you tell the truth, but the media thinks you shouldn't have, this probably qualifies. Kerry has no strategy in the South.
        
        by Jefe Le Gran on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:18:06 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        Actually... (none / 0)
        
        ...I think that's Michael Kinsley's definition, which is "when a politician accidentally tells the truth."
        
        Yes, I'm still for Dean.
        
        by Mike Jones on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:20:08 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
      - It's a gaffe... (none / 0)
        
        ...Only if you scream it.
        
        Let every man make known what kind of government would command his respect, and that would be one step toward obtaining it. --Henry David Thoreau
        
        by pam on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:12:03 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
    - Kerry's Southern Strategy (none / 1)
      
      At the Jan 4 Iowa debate:
      
      And in the end, if I'm the nominee, I could always pick a running mate from the South, and we'll do just fine.
      
      http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn?pagename=article&node=&contentId=A54363-2004Jan4&am p;;notFound=true
      
      99% perspiration
      
      by DaveOinSF on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:25:46 PM PDT
      
      [ Parent ]
      - Well ... (none / 1)
        
        If Kerry picks Gephardt as he VP - look out!
        
        Blogs: Politizine & Nader didn't cost Gore in 2000
        
        by radiotony on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:03:39 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
  - Listening to Tweety (3.50 / 2)
    
    Campbell, Jacques De Fraf, Fineman and Joe Scarbrough and they are spinning to postion themselves got a close close final.
    It is all aobut Dean and smiles smiles smiles. They feel he will be with them and the race for some time...
    "Ted" can sit down. (oh and take a flying fuck too )
    Tweety just said: Stay with us til Midnight.
    That is a lock on a close race. In my Tedless book.
    
    by Marisacat on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:08:37 PM PDT
    
    [ Parent ]
    - Tad Devine (none / 1)
      
      Kerry strategist is low balling on MSNBC. He is saying "we are in the mix". Even Tweety called him on it...
      YAAAA HOOOOO! This could happen...
      McMahan is on now...Jamie Rubin also. Rubin spinning back too, asking to stay "in the 4 to go national".
      
      by Marisacat on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:14:48 PM PDT
      
      [ Parent ]
  - Re: win (none / 1)
    
    "considering that Kerry has no money and no ground troops in 2/3 states"
    i think you'll find yourself wrong about both of these items.
    
    Visit Petey's Diary
    
    by Petey on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:10:38 PM PDT
    
    [ Parent ]
    - Well ... (none / 0)
      
      He isn't going to be able to rely on hundreds of volunteers from Massachusetts driving down to in South Carolina, Delaware, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arizona, like they did coming up to NH. That ain't gonna happen. However, he will get a little bit of a bounce in some of these states but I expect a collapse. Feb. 3 is going to be a free-for-all. And Dick Gephardt is the wild card.
      
      Blogs: Politizine & Nader didn't cost Gore in 2000
      
      by radiotony on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:14:27 PM PDT
      
      [ Parent ]
      - Well... (none / 0)
        
        The Gep is throwing all his resources and machine and the Mayor of St. Louis to Kerry in MO to Kerry, and Edwards has been endorsed by the Mayor of Kansas City for the other quarter of the state. We've got college kids. Read the diary posts. In St. Louis Kerry is already calling voters to ask them to hear K speak tomorrow night in StL. Check out the diary posts.
        
        by gogol on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:24:18 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        Re: Well... (none / 0)
        
        "The Gep is throwing all his resources and machine and the Mayor of St. Louis to Kerry in MO to Kerry, and Edwards has been endorsed by the Mayor of Kansas City for the other quarter of the state. We've got college kids. Read the diary posts. In St. Louis Kerry is already calling voters to ask them to hear K speak tomorrow night in StL. Check out the diary posts."
        MO is shaping up to be a do or die moment for Edwards, in my mind.
        
        Visit Petey's Diary
        
        by Petey on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:33:34 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        Do-or-die? Doubt it (none / 0)
        
        MO is shaping up to be a do or die moment for Edwards, in my mind.
        Eh, not really. Edwards can win South Carolina and lose Missouri, and place well in other states and still be in it - unless Kerry wins all the other states. That is doubtful.
        Lieberman is strong in Delaware. Clark is strong in Arizona and Oklahoma. Dean and Clark are strong in New Mexico. Who knows about North Dakota.
        
        Blogs: Politizine & Nader didn't cost Gore in 2000
        
        by radiotony on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:43:30 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        Re: Do-or-die? Doubt it (none / 0)
        
        "Eh, not really. Edwards can win South Carolina and lose Missouri, and place well in other states and still be in it - unless Kerry wins all the other states. That is doubtful."
        depends what you mean by "still be in it"
        if you mean "not have to drop out", then you are correct.
        if you mean "able to win the nomination", then i think you're wrong.
        Kerry is now on a tight inside track to the nomination. and unless he is forcibly derailed soon, that dynamic will only reinforce itself.
        Edwards is expected to win SC. it's like NH is to Kerry or Dean. by winning MO, he'd be able to put the money and Party people on notice that he still has a shot.
        without MO, i strongly fear Edwards would join Dean in the ranks of the undead.
        
        Visit Petey's Diary
        
        by Petey on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:50:34 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        Don't agree (none / 0)
        
        Edwards could also win Oklahoma. He would be nice to win Missouri, but it's not a do or die situation. He has to win South Carolina though.
        
        I'm getting off the bus before I get thrown under it.
        
        by Paleo on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:20:21 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        Re: Don't agree (none / 0)
        
        "Edwards could also win Oklahoma. He would be nice to win Missouri, but it's not a do or die situation. He has to win South Carolina though."
        if Kerry wins 5 or 6 states on Tuesday, i just don't see a path for Edwards to get to the nomination.
        there's a much more of a powerful front-runner effect in this race than many here assume. if Kerry comes close to sweeping next Tuesday, he'll have won 3 weeks in a row. the Party is already more comfortable with him than any other candidate.
        if Kerry comes close to sweeping, the ranks will start closing behind Kerry, and the doors will start closing in Edwards' face.
        Edwards needs to really beat expectations on 2/3 to change the dynamic. a moral victory is a loss at this point. only an actual victory will do any good.
        
        Visit Petey's Diary
        
        by Petey on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:35:31 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        Yes and no (none / 0)
        
        I agree about the frontrunner effect. Kerry could get three wins on Feb. 3: Missouri, Arizona and Delaware. If Edwards wins South Carolina and Oklahoma, he will blunt the effect of those victories. But you're right. Kerry could follow the Dukakis model and get at least a win every week, and roll on to the nomination.
        
        I'm getting off the bus before I get thrown under it.
        
        by Paleo on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:49:30 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        Re: Yes and no (none / 0)
        
        "Kerry could follow the Dukakis model and get at least a win every week, and roll on to the nomination."
        exactly. i think Edwards needs MO to keep this from turning into '88. it's still possible. Edwards isn't dead yet. but it's not going to be easy, and next week is crucial.
        if he fails, we're looking at a very similar replay of:
        Kerry = Dukakis
        Edwards = Gore
        Dean = Jackson
        
        Visit Petey's Diary
        
        by Petey on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:52:47 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        15% (none / 0)
        
        If he gets under 15% tonight, I will be disappointed.
        
        I'm getting off the bus before I get thrown under it.
        
        by Paleo on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 10:08:43 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        Re: 15% (none / 0)
        
        "If he gets under 15% tonight, I will be disappointed."
        i'm already disappointed. a few days ago, i thought Edwards had an outside chance of winning NH.
        now that we're here, i'm not sure the 15% threshold matters all that much, (although every extra percentage point is a good thing). all i'm concerned about is the margin over Clark.
        
        Visit Petey's Diary
        
        by Petey on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 10:14:42 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        margin (none / 0)
        
        votes right now.
        to 4232
        
        We need not think alike to love alike -- Ferenc Dávid
        
        by ogre on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 10:19:16 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        Three New Englanders (none / 0)
        
        Don't forget, he's up against three New Englanders. This was always going to be a tough state for him.
        
        I'm getting off the bus before I get thrown under it.
        
        by Paleo on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 10:34:59 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        Re: Three New Englanders (none / 0)
        
        "Don't forget, he's up against three New Englanders. This was always going to be a tough state for him."
        that's how he gets a ticket out with 14% of the vote.
        but just imagine how nice the landscape would've looked if he could have really connected up there.
        
        Visit Petey's Diary
        
        by Petey on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 10:48:54 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        I think you're off ... (none / 0)
        
        depends what you mean by "still be in it ... if you mean "able to win the nomination", then i think you're wrong."
        Well, you can think that but look I don't think you are being realistic. I don't know if you are a Kerry person or not, but the key to looking at these things are to be realistic.
        If Edwards wins South Carolina, and the other states split between the other candidates, then the nomination it is still up for grabs. Sure, Kerry could win them all - and then you would be right, it will be hard for the others to stay in it - but that isn't going to happen.
        So, he doesn't have the nomination.
        Next comes Michigan and Washington - both caucuses - with Kerry running strong in one, Dean running strong in the latter. Kerry and Dean split the Maine caucus a day later, and then Edwards wins Tennessee and Virgina.
        Nevada is a toss up four days later and Wisconsin becomes a brawl between Dean and Kerry.
        Nomination still up for grabs.
        A week later, Idaho, Hawaii, and Utah, all up for grabs.
        Another week later, Super Tuesday:
        Dean: California, Massachusetts, Vermont, Minnesota.
        Edwards: Georgia
        Kerry: Rhode Island, Maryland, probably New York, maybe Ohio if he gets the Gephardt endorsement.
        Lieberman, if he is still in it, gets Connecticut, otherwise it goes to Kerry.
        Still, no clinch.
        A week later, Edwards sweeps Mississippi, Florida, Louisiana, and Texas.
        A few days later, Edwards wins Kansas.
        A few days later, Kerry wins Illinois.
        Still no clinch.
        A few days later, Kerry wins Wyoming; Dean wins Alaska.
        Colorado on April 13 and Pennsylvania on April 27 become blood-baths and decide the nomination.
        
        Blogs: Politizine & Nader didn't cost Gore in 2000
        
        by radiotony on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:22:31 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        Re: I think you're off... (none / 0)
        
        "Well, you can think that but look I don't think you are being realistic. I don't know if you are a Kerry person or not, but the key to looking at these things are to be realistic."
        i'm 100% an Edwards person, and have been so for over a year.
        
        Visit Petey's Diary
        
        by Petey on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:27:32 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        asdf (none / 0)
        
        No way edwards wins virginia. Just an FYI.
        
        turtles consider
        every single vote deeply
        yet always vote dem
        
        by TealVeal on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:39:33 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        asdf (none / 0)
        
        No way edwards wins virginia. Just an FYI.
        
        turtles consider
        every single vote deeply
        yet always vote dem
        
        by TealVeal on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:45:02 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        College kid?!? (none / 0)
        
        I posted the diary on St. Louis and am a Dean supporter, but I am into my fifth decade.
        And goes for a lot of Dean folks I know in St. Louis and Alaska (where I relocated from to work for the campaign).
        
        by marcopolo on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:50:42 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
    - kerry's main ground troops are... (none / 0)
      
      firefighters and veterans -- and they live everywhere
      
      Two Dudes, One Blog
      
      by John on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:31:57 PM PDT
      
      [ Parent ]
      - Re: kerry's main ground troops are... (none / 0)
        
        "kerry's main ground troops are firefighters and veterans -- and they live everywhere."
        aren't you paying attention to this site?
        Dean is the only one with organization. Just like he was the only with organization in Iowa.
        Don't you understand that no one likes Kerry except the voters?
        
        Visit Petey's Diary
        
        by Petey on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:35:45 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        And remember that voters.... (none / 0)
        
        don't really count! Only money, organization, and the Supreme Court!
        
        by DenfromWisc on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:48:40 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        Petey... (3.50 / 2)
        
        Why be a wiseass?
        
        "How do you ask a man to be the last to die for a mistake?" -John Kerry, 1971 but what we needed to hear in 2003/2004
        
        by Demise on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:00:17 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        Re: Petey... (none / 1)
        
        "Why be a wiseass?"
        cuz that's how god made me.
        Petey's gift is his snark, as well as his occassional odd trait of referring to himself in the 3rd person.
        
        Visit Petey's Diary
        
        by Petey on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:02:49 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        Hmmmm (none / 1)
        
        not sure on the wise portion, but displaying solid evidence of the remainder.
        Think we have a squeaker decision here.
        
        cheers,
        Mitch Gore
        Wanna win in '08...?
        Put your money where your mouth is.
        
        by Lestatdelc on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:13:35 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
  - Money (none / 0)
    
    I wonder how the money situation is shaping up these days, given that Dean spent twice as much as any other candidate in the last week, and that Edwards and Kerry both were supposedly matching Dean in fundraising during that time.
    
    by Trapper John on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:22:18 PM PDT
    
    [ Parent ]
    - Well, Trap, if he finishes really close here... (none / 1)
      
      ... I imagine the floodgates will open again for the online contributions.
      One thing you gotta' give the guy... he a tough little bastard.
      Knock him down, he gets back up and keeps marching forward,
      
      by Bob Johnson on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:27:02 PM PDT
      
      [ Parent ]
    - Re: Money (none / 0)
      
      "I wonder how the money situation is shaping up these days, given that Dean spent twice as much as any other candidate in the last week, and that Edwards and Kerry both were supposedly matching Dean in fundraising during that time."
      The money primary is about to start up again.
      My gut tells me that at the moment Edwards and Kerry are broke, and Dean is almost broke.
      My gut also tells me that Kerry will not be broke in 48 hours.
      Just saw Susan Estrch talking about the possibility of Edwards loaning his campaign $5 million, which would be enough to get him through Feb 3. (Gotta win MO, Johnny Sunshine, if you want to be President this year.)
      
      Visit Petey's Diary
      
      by Petey on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:29:16 PM PDT
      
      [ Parent ]
      - x (none / 0)
        
        Petey, what happens if Clark and Edwards tie, here? Granted, the results could shift, but it looks to me like there are a bunch of exit polls showing them tied, and one with Edwards out front 3-4 points (which is putting him out front when people average the results).
        And how far apart to they have to be for the media to treat one as a meaningful winner over the other--especially if the gap behind Kerry/Dean holds up, does a point between these guys matter?
        Be gentle on this Clark fan, oh unbiased Edwards-fan analyst...
        
        by jsavage on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:36:39 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        Re: x (none / 0)
        
        "Petey, what happens if Clark and Edwards tie, here?"
        i really feel pretty confident that Edwards is going to get his third place finish.
        if they tie, or Clark comes out ahead, it's obviously an enormous win for him and would leave him viable for next week. but, as i say, i don't see it happening that way.
        
        Visit Petey's Diary
        
        by Petey on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:42:20 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        Petey (none / 0)
        
        you should visit the Kerry blog. Some guy named Ted has Edwards edging out Dean for second in NH. Now, whether this guy really knows anything or not is another story.
        You don't think Edwards could go on with just a win in SC and OK? I think these are his two strongest states in the next round.
        
        I'm too disgusted right now to think of a sig.
        
        by Ga6thDem on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:47:51 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        Re: Petey (none / 0)
        
        "You don't think Edwards could go on with just a win in SC and OK? I think these are his two strongest states in the next round."
        as stated slightly upthread, depends what you mean by "go on". if the goal is to actually win the nomination, he's got to do better than just SC and OK.
        Dean is able to "go on", but he's as undead as a zombie from Night of the Living Dead. without really thumping Kerry on neutral ground next Tuesday, Edwards will join him.
        
        Visit Petey's Diary
        
        by Petey on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:53:54 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        Night of the Living Dead (none / 0)
        
        So, a second place finish in NH turns you into a zombie?
        
        "How do you ask a man to be the last to die for a mistake?" -John Kerry, 1971 but what we needed to hear in 2003/2004
        
        by Demise on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:02:45 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        Re: Night of the Living Dead (none / 0)
        
        "So, a second place finish in NH turns you into a zombie?"
        Dean got turned into a zombie last week. Even if he'd won tonight, he still wouldn't have been the nominee.
        That said, losing a high profile early primary in your backyard tends to be deadly. It happened to Geppy. If Edwards were to lose SC, it would have similar results. In fact, if I were running Kerry's campaign, I'd let loose with both barrels in SC.
        
        Visit Petey's Diary
        
        by Petey on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:06:12 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        Petey.. (none / 0)
        
        Keep slopping it up. Dean did what anyone who expects to win the White House needs to do- he got bashed for something taken completely out of context and has managed to come back from it.
        I have a question for you, if he wins the nomination- will you stop bashing Dean and support his presidency?
        
        "How do you ask a man to be the last to die for a mistake?" -John Kerry, 1971 but what we needed to hear in 2003/2004
        
        by Demise on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:17:02 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        Re: Petey.. (none / 1)
        
        "I have a question for you, if he wins the nomination- will you stop bashing Dean and support his presidency?"
        i'm a Democrat. i'd vote for a stuffed ferret if it ran on the Democratic line.
        and while i spent all summer and fall bashing Dean, that's not what i'm doing now. the guy really is the undead. he doesn't need to be bashed. on this thread, i'm just giving you the news. shoot the messenger if it makes you feel better.
        
        Visit Petey's Diary
        
        by Petey on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:25:45 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
  - Kerry (none / 0)
    
    Kerry's bought significant airtime in all 7 Feb 3 states as of tomorrow (according to an AP story earlier today); Dean is dark right now everywhere, pending the outcome tonight.
    
    by desmoulins on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:03:40 PM PDT
    
    [ Parent ]
    - Re: Kerry (none / 0)
      
      "Kerry's bought significant airtime in all 7 Feb 3 states as of tomorrow (according to an AP story earlier today); Dean is dark right now everywhere, pending the outcome tonight."
      you also obviously haven't been reading this site. everyone here knows Dean is flush and Kerry is broke.
      
      Visit Petey's Diary
      
      by Petey on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:07:52 PM PDT
      
      [ Parent ]
    - The AP (none / 0)
      
      How many times have they been wrong?
      If Kerry's the nom. you'll find out soon enough
      
      McCain: He's Constipated and Ready to GO
      
      by Al Rodgers on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:11:39 PM PDT
      
      [ Parent ]
- YYEEEEEEAAAAAAAAW (none / 1)
  
  or, Yes. that would be a win.
  
  Enjoy every sandwich-Warren
  
  by barr on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:02:52 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
  - 7 (none / 1)
    
    Is the magic number for me. If Dean can get 7 points or closer to Kerry, he's made a move. Remember, he was polling down in the double digits...to close to 7 points of the frontrunner (when everyone had written him off) is a huge move forward in the final three days.
    Anything lower than seven is huge. Beating Kerry would probably knock him off his legs for the rest of the race...which would benefit both Clark and Edwards.
    
    by Azrael on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:08:06 PM PDT
    
    [ Parent ]
- You betcha! (none / 1)
  
  Second is a big win!
  Third in Iowa, Second in New Hampshire..only the beginning!
  Most Money! Best Organization!
  DEAN IS BACK!
  Former Deaniac for Dean
  
  Patriotic, flag waving, radical centrist Howard Dean Democrat. Until we stand on principle and lose our fear of defeat we will never win.
  
  by rusrivman on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:03:37 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
  - "Most Money" (none / 0)
    
    Not anymore. Word is that he's hurting pretty bad and has burned through a ton of green. I suspect my favorite 3rd place candidate, Wes Clark, is actually sitting on the biggest pile
    
    by ColoDem on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:28:44 PM PDT
    
    [ Parent ]
    - Why would Trippi put up a bat right before NH? (none / 0)
      
      I've heard those rumors too.
      
      Two Dudes, One Blog
      
      by John on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:35:23 PM PDT
      
      [ Parent ]
      - Two possible Reasons (none / 0)
        
        the press (and bloggers) were raising questions, what were they afraid of, had they lost the support of their most diehard adherents?
        They decided they wanted to spend more than they had budgeted for NH, and wanted not to dip into their funds that they knew they would need to continue to compete the following week
        Besdies.... what makes you think this was still Trippi's decision to make?
        
        do we still have a Republic and a Constitution if our elected officials will not stand up for it on our behalf?
        
        by teacherken on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:42:42 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
      - Hell, why wouldn't he? (none / 1)
        
        "Go to bat" for any excuse for a little cash-in rally -- end of quarter, beat Bush's 2K/plate luncheon tally or, perhaps, cleverly playing off the sympathies of Dean supporters who were incensed by the media's treatment of the scream heard 'round the world. I for one immediately sent the campaign $50 post-Iowa.
        
        On Media Engagement
        
        by magpie02141 on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:46:43 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
      - IMO (none / 0)
        
        They should have a bat up 24/7.
        
        "How do you ask a man to be the last to die for a mistake?" -John Kerry, 1971 but what we needed to hear in 2003/2004
        
        by Demise on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:04:06 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
    - Just in case you're right... (3.50 / 2)
      
      ..I better do my part. Heading over to contribute to Dean. Thanks for the heads up.
      
      The chips are down. Find your outrage.
      
      by sj on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:49:32 PM PDT
      
      [ Parent ]
    - Reality check (none / 1)
      
      Average donation < $300
      4,000 new supporters per day since Iowa
      Dean supporters know it's a marathon and are prepared to keep digging deeper.
      
      try habitat restoration - good for you, good for all
      
      by jps on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:52:57 PM PDT
      
      [ Parent ]
    - First heard from (none / 1)
      
      Novak.
      Consider the source.
      
      We need not think alike to love alike -- Ferenc Dávid
      
      by ogre on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:25:07 PM PDT
      
      [ Parent ]
  - We're number 2! We're number 2! (none / 0)
    
    'nuff said.
    
    by Bushed on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:39:45 PM PDT
    
    [ Parent ]
    - yes, but... (3.50 / 2)
      
      ...we have moxie.
      
      by NYCO on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:42:24 PM PDT
      
      [ Parent ]
      - Re: yes, but... (none / 0)
        
        "we have moxie"
        that and 3 bucks will get you a latte.
        
        Visit Petey's Diary
        
        by Petey on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:45:51 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        hmm... bitter, petey? why so hostile? (none / 1)
        
        later
        
        by Randomtask on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:48:19 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        RT (none / 0)
        
        I'd be pissed too if my candidate issued orders to surrender the south.
        At least Robert E. Lee put up a fight
        
        McCain: He's Constipated and Ready to GO
        
        by Al Rodgers on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:56:09 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        hhaha (none / 0)
        
        Kerry's Southern Strategy: Fuck it.
        
        later
        
        by Randomtask on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 01:43:03 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        You can get a coffee for $3 bucks where you live? (none / 1)
        
        by aw on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:57:15 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        No he meant (none / 0)
        
        Moxie. The drink. Welcome to New England.
        
        by Gideon S on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:27:12 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
    - Re: We're number 2! (none / 1)
      
      "We're number 2! We're number 2!"
      i believe the actual chant is:
      We're number 2! We're number 2! And we have nowhere to go next week!
      
      Visit Petey's Diary
      
      by Petey on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:44:44 PM PDT
      
      [ Parent ]
  - Put that kool-aid down (none / 0)
    
    If any early state was made for Dean, it was New Hampshire. If he can't win there, where's the next primary he's going to win? He has a shot at Arizona, but Kerry's ahead of him there. Wisconsin might be a good state for him, but if he hasn't won before then, and Kerry beats him in Arizona and Missouri, he's going to have an uphill battle there.
    
    I'm getting off the bus before I get thrown under it.
    
    by Paleo on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:26:32 PM PDT
    
    [ Parent ]
- If he lives to fight another day... (3.50 / 2)
  
  he wins. After the bruhaha after Iowa, he looked like toast. NH has always been a must-win for Kerry... it has never been a must-win for Dean. He just needs to keep it close, and if he can pull it out, well, yyyeeeeeeehhhhhhaaaa! Good for him. And if it's within 5, and his concession speech is upbeat without being manic, he's in it for 41 more states.
  
  Help a Blue Store!
  
  by ultrageek on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:04:09 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
- If he gets back within five... (none / 1)
  
  ... he's come back from the dead, just like Kerry and Edwards did in Iowa.
  He was run over by a truck and left for dead earlier this week.
  A close second here is a big comeback -- picking up 20-25 points in a matter of days.
  
  by Bob Johnson on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:15:32 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
  - Not quite that much (none / 1)
    
    the largest margin in the ARG tracking was 19 points, 34-15, in the 3-day sample Jan 21-23.
    let's for sake of argument presume a 3-point margin. That would be clsoing 16 points in roughly 5 days, whihc is a pretty spectacular comeback by Deanh, and/or collapse by Kerry.
    Could it be that the more people saw and heard Kerry.... and what the talking heads ever offer that?
    
    do we still have a Republic and a Constitution if our elected officials will not stand up for it on our behalf?
    
    by teacherken on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:27:28 PM PDT
    
    [ Parent ]
    - Kerry (3.50 / 2)
      
      Kerry isn't so much a candidate, as a concept.
      At the start of 2003, and way into the summer, I was fully expecting to be a Kerry girl. Why? Because he was a familiar face, he was a known quantity, espoused traditional Democratic values. He was going to be my guy. In the meantime, while I was waiting for him to get started, I got interested in Dean and the rest is history.
      Kerry was a concept to me. I really didn't know the particulars about anything he'd actually done. All I knew was -- Dependable old John Kerry - War veteran - Peacenik - Northeastern liberal - NotBush. I was sure he'd done something to merit the nomination, and that we'd find out about it later.
      
      by NYCO on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:32:34 PM PDT
      
      [ Parent ]
squeaker (4.00 / 6)

Kos, somehow when you say "a squeaker on its way" I just have this bizarre image of a woman in labor, feet in the stirrups, screaming at her husband, "You did this to me!!!!!"
Cause that's what this feels like.

by NYCO on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:00:57 PM PDT
- Actually (none / 1)
  
  I think it's the KOServer that's squeeking.
  
  -- "Yeah, well, that's just, like, your opinion, man."
  
  by Gary on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:16:06 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
Absentee ballots (none / 0)

Are absentee ballots factored into the exit poll results?

by orchid314 on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:01:12 PM PDT
- No (none / 0)
  
  No
  
  by gimmeaD on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:04:02 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
- Re: Absentee Ballots (none / 0)
  
  Nope, not included. By law they can't start counting those until the polls close. And it's very hard to say how those ballots will break, although I would point out that lots of absentee ballots are filed by college students. :-)
  
  by sipples on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:07:20 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
  - Elsewhere (none / 0)
    
    Somewhere else on dKos today, someone posted an official-looking quote that said they'd start counting the absentee ballots at 1:00 p.m. There's no reason to factor those numbers into exit polls, though.
    
    Raging in enthusiastic support of the machine since January, 2008
    
    by abw on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:15:52 PM PDT
    
    [ Parent ]
    - Not quite (none / 1)
      
      They start processing them. Yanking them out, sorting them out, etc. They can't start counting the actual absentee votes until after the polls close.
      But they can -- and do -- get everything ready so the count goes quickly.
      
      by Morat on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 10:00:34 PM PDT
      
      [ Parent ]
      - Cool. (none / 0)
        
        Thanks for the details.
        
        Raging in enthusiastic support of the machine since January, 2008
        
        by abw on Wed Jan 28, 2004 at 02:04:14 AM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
- An interesting question since Dean requested (none / 0)
  
  all of his supporters to vote as early as possible (definitely did on the phone at the January Meet Up)...could it be that there is a block of Dean absentee votes out there waiting to be counted?
  That would really make this interesting.
  
  by marcopolo on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:08:10 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
- Absentee ballots (none / 0)
  
  Absentee ballots can't be factored into the exit polls because at the exits the absentee voters are ... absent.
  BTW, that should be great for Dean because he was on top until last Wednesday morning.
  
  by gogol on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:10:42 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
  - a really thourough poller (4.00 / 4)
    
    would stand by mailboxes and post offices and ask each person if they just voted absentee and for whom.
    
    strong infrastructure and fair play
    
    by pyrrho on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:22:34 PM PDT
    
    [ Parent ]
    - a really thorough poller... (none / 0)
      
      Super LOL. Excuse me, I have to lie down til I stop giggling.
      
      by gogol on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:29:54 PM PDT
      
      [ Parent ]
2 hours to go (none / 1)

It looks like Dean is going to close within 10-5 points. Anything closer will be spun as a big victory for Dean, no doubt about it.
If nothing else, Iowa and NH have done us well by getting rid of our 2 weakest viable candidates.
If you think this past week was crazy, February will be wild!

by thirdparty on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:01:39 PM PDT
- Ow. (none / 1)
  
  My tummy hurts already.
  
  by tittergrrl on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:02:46 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
- Numbers I've seen (none / 1)
  
  Have Dean within 5
  
  by audibledevil on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:04:28 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
  - Which direction? (none / 0)
    
    And what's your source?
    
    Help a Blue Store!
    
    by ultrageek on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:06:57 PM PDT
    
    [ Parent ]
    - The various exit polls so far... (none / 0)
      
      Range from a 7 point lead by Kerry to a one point difference... with Dean leading.
      The average of the six exit polls was a less than 5 point lead by Kerry.
      (For us political junkies, this is about as much fun as... well... almost as much fun as... sex. We're the deranged group that appreciated the long agony in November 2000... even while we were agonizing for the answer)
      
      We need not think alike to love alike -- Ferenc Dávid
      
      by ogre on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:33:39 PM PDT
      
      [ Parent ]
  - hey, audible, any updates? (none / 0)
    
    and are your sources reliable?
    
    Help Chris Dodd retire his campaign debt
    
    by sdf on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:02:52 PM PDT
    
    [ Parent ]
- Will organization matter now? (none / 0)
  
  After Iowa, I was having a hard time buying the "Kerry doesn't have the organization after N.H." line, but if Dean can squeak in even very close in N.H., to the point the media starts cheering for him, Dean's organization might make a solid difference in future states. This is going to make for an excellent dogfight if its neck and neck here, and the longer the Dems are the #1 story, the more it hurts Bush. (Free press coverage!)
  
  by balta1701 on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:04:37 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
  - Yes, keep the contest going (none / 1)
    
    Totally agree. A tight race between 2, 3 or even 4 candidates will be interesting news, and will keep the Democrats, and what they say, in the headlines. Free publicity from Democratic arguments! Excellent whoever ends up winning...
    ...as long as those candidates continue to compete by attacking Bush rather than each other. So far, it looks like going negative is a bad strategy; if everyone sticks with that lesson we can give Bush a very bad few months.
    
    Why not read Things I've Seen?
    
    by tis on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:10:30 PM PDT
    
    [ Parent ]
  - you got that right (4.00 / 2)
    
    anything that's bad for bush is good for America.
    let's keep the press focused on the dem primary.
    
    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx
    
    by DemFromCT on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:17:00 PM PDT
    
    [ Parent ]
    - Re: You got that right! (none / 1)
      
      Amen. It seems like we have really pushed Dubya out of the news! At least we're more interesting to him. I think it's also a good sign that people are showing up to the polls, in record numbers.
      
      together-we win
      
      by ABB on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:08:56 PM PDT
      
      [ Parent ]
newbie. (4.00 / 4)

i'm really new to the process.
please excuse my ignorance, but i have a question:
if this these exit polls are true, it cannot be bad news in anyway for dr. dean, right?
first -- great for obvious reasons.
second -- back on the map; gaining 'comeback' status.
thanks guys.
i really enjoy reading this thing!

you are not what you own.

by whitedawn on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:02:14 PM PDT
- newbie (none / 0)
  
  Well newbie, you are spot on for both counts.
  Welcome, as a newbie we'll take all the prodigies we can get!
  
  by gogol on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:16:17 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
- Welcome whitedawn! (none / 1)
  
  This is a wild and crazy place and when we fight, we're only pretending, right, guys???
  (I wish!!!)
  mwjeepster
  Political Junkie in Training
  STILL waiting for snow in NYC!
  (mw needs a SNOW day!)
  
  Dissent is Patriotic
  
  by mwjeepster on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:18:18 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
- Welcome newbie! (none / 1)
  
  Yes, if Dean is within 5-10 points of Kerry he can count this as a victory and call himself the comeback kid.
  It can get very interesting around here, sometimes silly, sometimes nasty, but never dull.
  
  You fell victim to one of the classic blunders, the most famous of which is "Never get involved in a land war in Asia".
  
  by yellowdog on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:22:50 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
- Would you be Whitedawn... (none / 0)
  
  of NY Times Gay Rights forum fame?
  
  cheers,
  Mitch Gore
  Wanna win in '08...?
  Put your money where your mouth is.
  
  by Lestatdelc on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:37:11 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
  - nope. (none / 0)
    
    nah...
    whitedawn here = sam from florida.
    :]
    
    you are not what you own.
    
    by whitedawn on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:43:30 PM PDT
    
    [ Parent ]
    - No Prob (none / 0)
      
      Just saw an odl familiar handle fly by, hence the question.
      Welcome all the same.
      
      cheers,
      Mitch Gore
      Wanna win in '08...?
      Put your money where your mouth is.
      
      by Lestatdelc on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:59:55 PM PDT
      
      [ Parent ]
Keep in mind (none / 0)

Keep in mind that even the exit polls can be wrong. In 1992 they had Herbert Walker Bush only 6% ahead of Pat Buchanan in the New Hampshire primary and he ended up winning by 16%.
We all know about the 2000 election and the numbers reported during the day of the 2002 election before VNS shut itself down.

by gimmeaD on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:02:54 PM PDT
- Actually ... (none / 0)
  
  It was 18 percent: George H.W. Bush: 58; Buchanan: 40. But the message was sent!
  
  Blogs: Politizine & Nader didn't cost Gore in 2000
  
  by radiotony on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:08:59 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
- What I have heard (none / 0)
  
  "The 2000 Democratic primary morning exit polls in New Hampshire showed Bill Bradley ahead of Al Gore by two points ... Gore won by six points.
  The 1992 Republican primary exit polls showed Pat Buchanan only four points behind George HW Bush ... he lost by 22 points."
  http://www.danconley.com/archives/000163.htm
  
  Ever get the feeling you've been cheated?
  
  by johnny rotten on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:15:03 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
  - Buchanan only lost by 18! (none / 0)
    
    ARG had Bush beating McCain by 2 percent. That was off by 16 points - McCain 49 to Bush 31. Then there was the poll that had Dole winning NH in 1988 by 7 points but Bush 41 beat him 38 to 29.
    
    Blogs: Politizine & Nader didn't cost Gore in 2000
    
    by radiotony on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:26:52 PM PDT
    
    [ Parent ]
  - Are you Sure? (none / 0)
    
    The ratio of real exit polls out in cyberspace before polls close to the made up bullshit variet is about 1:100. Don't believe it until you hear Wolf Blitzer say it.
    
    by ColoDem on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:31:39 PM PDT
    
    [ Parent ]
    - Did Wolfie (none / 1)
      
      say the war was over when The Kurds captured Saddam.
      
      McCain: He's Constipated and Ready to GO
      
      by Al Rodgers on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:34:18 PM PDT
      
      [ Parent ]
      - Did the US give up (4.00 / 2)
        
        when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
        Hell no!
        
        later
        
        by Randomtask on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:43:03 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        Dean (none / 0)
        
        Dean's bombing in New Hapshire? Did Clark order it?
        
        -- "Yeah, well, that's just, like, your opinion, man."
        
        by Gary on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:54:43 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
Numbers or Link? (none / 0)

Pretty please with sugar?

by Wanderer on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:02:55 PM PDT
Calpundit Exit Poll #s here (none / 1)

Six different exit polls are listed on Calpundit here
Enjoy!

by marcopolo on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:05:04 PM PDT
Polls close (none / 0)

What time do polls close?

99% perspiration

by DaveOinSF on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:07:04 PM PDT
- Polls close (none / 0)
  
  at 8 PM Eastern.
  Westerners like me can stay up watching coverage till our heart's content.
  
  *John McCain is aware of the Internet*
  
  by MichaelPH on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:13:25 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
  - Well Damn... (none / 1)
    
    If I could only get some snow around here, I could stay up all night too!!!!!
    mwjeepster
    trying not to bite the pretty nails...
    
    Dissent is Patriotic
    
    by mwjeepster on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:20:38 PM PDT
    
    [ Parent ]
Exit poll numbers (none / 0)

A bunch are reportedly on Calpundit, and were copied to WesleyClarkWeblog. (Follow my link for the latter; they're in the discussion thread for the earlier numbers I swiped from Kos.)
Looking like a real squeaker between Clark and Edwards for 3rd!
-- Rick Robinson

The best fortress is to be found in the love of the people - Niccolo Machiavelli

by al Fubar on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:07:19 PM PDT
- Does 3rd matter... (none / 1)
  
  ...if both candidates are below 15%? Won't the story be that both failed to make the cut?
  That would be a shame. I'd be much happier if both make it to 15% and keep the race interesting. Survivor would never have been good TV if you threw people out too quickly.
  (Personally, I never understood why Survivor was considered good TV anyway, but that's just me.)
  
  Why not read Things I've Seen?
  
  by tis on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:13:58 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
  - Delegates don't matter ... (none / 0)
    
    For NH - it is all about mo.
    A New England state was dominated by New Englanders - whadda surprise. And, it's Disappointing Kerry edging out Not Quite Strong Enough Dean.
    Both Clark and Edwards look good to go for Feb 3 - and Clark probably has the most cash of anyone.
    -- Rick Robinson
    
    The best fortress is to be found in the love of the people - Niccolo Machiavelli
    
    by al Fubar on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:49:42 PM PDT
    
    [ Parent ]
Dr. Comeback!! (3.66 / 3)

So it looks like unless something insane happens in the next hour, Howard Dean has officially gotten his "comeback" title, n'est-ce pas?
Man, if it comes out this close then the time between now and next Tuesday is going to be insane. This front-loaded primary schedule really gives the whole season a "wacky Three Stooges speeded-up film" feel doesn't it?

Read James Loewen's "Sundown Towns"!

by ChicagoDem on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:07:23 PM PDT
Realtime Stats? (none / 0)

Any way to get some realtime numbers that aren't exit polls? Or do those just not happen with caucuses?

--
HILLARY '08: CLAP CLAP POINT POINT!

by EliWho on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:07:35 PM PDT
- nh (none / 0)
  
  New Hampshire is a primary, not a caucus. Polls close at 8 pm Eastern.
  
  by NYCO on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:09:55 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
  - not true (none / 0)
    
    some close at 7pm
    check it out at:
    http://webster.state.nh.us/sos/polling.htm
    
    by Mexicana on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:13:15 PM PDT
    
    [ Parent ]
    - Actually, it looks like most of them... (none / 0)
      
      close at 7.
      So... the exit polls done by then, and reported... will have a complete breakdown of most of the reported vote (plus/minus the fib-factor and the fuck-you factor)
      
      We need not think alike to love alike -- Ferenc Dávid
      
      by ogre on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:42:16 PM PDT
      
      [ Parent ]
- I'm an idiot (none / 0)
  
  "...Or do those just not happen with primaries?"
  
  --
  HILLARY '08: CLAP CLAP POINT POINT!
  
  by EliWho on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:11:14 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
- Early real numbers (4.00 / 2)
  
  First a caveat -- most of what I know about NH's vote count is from (literally) decades ago.
  That said, only oddball spots like Dixville Notch and Harts Location (voting pops. ~25 or so) will vote, count, and announce way early (as in: already).
  Look for partial results to start coming in shortly after 7 pm, from those places where polls close early. Discount them, unless you know what specific towns there from and what those towns' political demos are.
  Then (just after 8 pm) look for a whole slew of results to start pouring in from the larger towns/cities that use machines (Manchester, Nashua, etc.). Again -- take them with a grain of salt unless you know where they're coming from (for example, which Wards in Manchester are in, and which ones aren't).
  Results from smaller towns with paper ballots will trickle in last of all, as will absentee ballots. If you put a gun to my head, I'd think the latter would run slightly more pro-Dean than votes cast today, but that could be wrong.
  Sit back and enjoy. In '72, McGovern's total rose as the night went on -- he still "lost" to Muskie, but it was a Pyrhic victory for the latter.
  [PS: You're being too harsh on yourself. You're not "an idiot", you're a Yalie :-) ]
  
  by AlpedHuez on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:50:27 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
CalPundit has a bunch of exit poll numbers up (none / 0)

Some are the same as those we've seen here, some apparently different, but they all hover around the Kerry 36, Dean 31 mark, with the exception of LA Times.
http://www.calpundit.com/archives/003138.html

Help Chris Dodd retire his campaign debt

by sdf on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:08:57 PM PDT
- Media Consortium? (none / 1)
  
  When I was looking at those results, I couldn't help but wonder if all of those except the LA Times results were just the Media Consortium taken at different times....
  
  by Jefe Le Gran on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:13:10 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
  - They'd be... (4.00 / 2)
    
    ...the media consortium numbers subjected to different methodologies, I bet. (That means: different assumptions about the demographic breakdown of those who've voted vs. those who still have to vote.)
    
    by gong on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:42:29 PM PDT
    
    [ Parent ]
dean blog... (none / 1)

...asks that everyone on the blog please call anyone you know in New Hampshire to make sure they vote. Literally everyone, from senior staff to volunteers, is making calls right now -- this blog entry was typed while talking on the phone to the voters of New Hampshire. Whatever you're doing, pick up a phone and call anyone you know in New Hampshire and tell them to vote!
they must know something...must be SUPER close for them to post this with 2 hours to go.
interesting. they find new ways to use the internet all the time over there

you are not what you own.

by whitedawn on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:09:19 PM PDT
- I sent a cell-phone text message... (4.00 / 2)
  
  as a reminder to my friend in Nashua to call EVERYONE he knows. The voting sites in Nashua close at 8pm.
  
  by Mexicana on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:11:04 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
WOW.. never heard it quite this way (4.00 / 5)

kos: "They may actually have to count votes before declaring a winner tonight. "
I wanted to laugh.. but then I felt a tug of.. well... sadness oh well...
ANNOY THE MEDIA
VOTE DEAN

by Mexicana on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:09:33 PM PDT
clark gaffe (none / 0)

http://www.politicsnh.com/
"After winning in Dixville Notch shortly after midnight, Wes Clark sent out an e-mail to supporters saying he was pleased with his win in 'Dicksville Notch.'"

by agent z on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:10:05 PM PDT
- At least he didn't say (none / 0)
  
  Coxsville Notch.
  Now that would be funny.
  
  Support Regina Thomas, GA-12
  
  by Drew on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:12:58 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
  - Or (none / 0)
    
    Noxville Ditch
    ...for that matter.
    
    *John McCain is aware of the Internet*
    
    by MichaelPH on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:16:39 PM PDT
    
    [ Parent ]
    - Or... (none / 0)
      
      Vaginaville Notch
      
      by thirdparty on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:21:10 PM PDT
      
      [ Parent ]
- I got that one. (none / 0)
  
  I got one of those Clark e-mails. Cracked me up.
  
  Raging in enthusiastic support of the machine since January, 2008
  
  by abw on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:19:12 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
What time? (none / 0)

What time do the polls close in NH? (Eastern Standard Time, of course).

by ne plus ultra on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:10:32 PM PDT
- 8 pm (none / 1)
  
  The last polls in New Hampshire close at 8 p.m. (some close at 7 p.m.). If history is a guide, almost all of the state's 301 precincts will have reported results by 10 p.m. (from NYT)
  Follow the results on USA Today.com.
  
  by Left Coast on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:35:58 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
The Supremes (none / 0)

Let's have it where we have to call in the Supremes on the vote count!! Get them started good and early before they are called into action in November. ;-)

Today is the tomorrow we worried about yesterday.

by Long Haul on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:10:50 PM PDT
- The Supremes (none / 0)
  
  Think of as winterball training for the Supreme Team. BTW has anyone polled them on how they'll vote in this thing?
  If you, reflect not just on Florida, but some of post 2000 state legislature meddling, seems they have taken up a new geriatric hobby.
  
  by gogol on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:46:15 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
On Hardball... (none / 1)

They had exit poll nmbers on the War (approve or disapprove) Safe after Iraq (Yes or No) Civil Unions and Taxes that are very Dean favorable.
And the group seemed to be prepping us for a strong Dean showing.
I assume these guys have the exit poll numbers on who people voted for and are struggling like mad to bite their tongues...

by hookstrapped on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:11:20 PM PDT
- not to mention... (none / 0)
  
  Earlier this afternoon, a network exit poll listed health care as the leading voter concern - 26%, with the Iraq war second at 21%.
  
  by NYCO on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:13:04 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
MUST - REMEMBER - TO - BREATHE (4.00 / 6)

The DFA site is also painting the sitch as excruciatingly close, and is reporting the campaign to be in full overdrive mode in getting voters out to the polls. (In my little head, I can hear the campaign staff singing, "Every vote is sacred, every vote is great, if a vote is wasted, God gets quite irate...")
As to the reported closeness of the whole thing, I can only say--
MEDIC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

"To live like a Republican, vote for the Democrat." ~Harry S Truman

by Hell Upside Down on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:11:32 PM PDT
- Let's give this night a title shall we? (none / 0)
  
  Sounds a bit like:
  "Howard/Python's: The Meaning of Votes"
  to me.
  
  +1 Voter
  
  by Izixs on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:18:39 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
Count every vote? (none / 1)

Count every vote?
Count every vote?
That's not the American way!
What do you think this is, Costa Rica??

later

by Randomtask on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:14:46 PM PDT
- No. (4.00 / 12)
  
  If this was Costa Rica, we'd have health insurance.
  
  The times, they are a-changin'
  
  by Malacandra on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:24:18 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
  - No. (none / 0)
    
    Super, super LOL. Maybe its the tension that's make me burst out in laughter. 'Scuse, I have to lay down again.
    It looks like I'm to have to take this election lying dow.
    
    by gogol on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:59:09 PM PDT
    
    [ Parent ]
I don't know (none / 1)

It's way too early to declare any kind of victory for Dean. Personally, I have an uneasy feeling that Kerry is going to pull away at the end.

by MattBellamy on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:16:00 PM PDT
- It's the Expectation's game (4.00 / 3)
  
  Kerry was supposed to win big, in his own back yard, with the IA/Media wind at his back, against the badly damaged, even crippled, Dean Candidacy.
  If Kerry couldn't swamp Dean, under the most favorable circumstance, where can Kerry succeed
  
  McCain: He's Constipated and Ready to GO
  
  by Al Rodgers on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:20:32 PM PDT
  
  [ Parent ]
  - Of course (none / 0)
    
    If Dean can't win in his backyard, in the state where he has the most sophisticated organization, where he led by nearly 20 points as recently as a month ago, where can he win?
    ;)
    
    by Trapper John on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:26:15 PM PDT
    
    [ Parent ]
    - Kerry's Comeback (4.00 / 4)
      
      Lasted 7 days. Onwards to SC. We'll se which Yankee plays netter down there --- the plain spoken one with the working wife or the patrician with the millionaire wife.
      
      The moral arc of the universe is long, but it bends towards justice. - Martin Luther King, Jr.
      
      by easong on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:31:24 PM PDT
      
      [ Parent ]
      - Or neither (4.00 / 2)
        
        It's possible that both Yankees will have a tough time in SC.
        
        by Trapper John on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:33:59 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        Re: Or neither (none / 0)
        
        "Or neither It's possible that both Yankees will have a tough time in SC."
        assuming Edwards gets 3rd tonight, as i assume he will, SC is done. it's over. Edwards wins.
        (unless Clyburn goes all out for Kerry and puts it back into play, but i don't think that's gonna happen.)
        
        Visit Petey's Diary
        
        by Petey on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:38:46 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
        
        Yup (none / 1)
        
        Edwards wins!
        p.s. (SC)
        
        "How do you ask a man to be the last to die for a mistake?" -John Kerry, 1971 but what we needed to hear in 2003/2004
        
        by Demise on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 09:20:04 PM PDT
        
        [ Parent ]
  - "where can Kerry succee

A squeaker on its way

by kos

Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 07:57:59 PM PDT

Daily Kos Help

Woah! (3.50 / 2)

Close = Win for Dean (none / 1)

Go to CNN for the "Buzz" poll (none / 1)

In The End... (3.50 / 2)

win (none / 1)

Kerry's Southern Strategy (4.00 / 2)

So... (none / 0)

Hmm... (3.66 / 3)

Actually... (none / 0)

It's a gaffe... (none / 0)

Kerry's Southern Strategy (none / 1)

Well ... (none / 1)

Listening to Tweety (3.50 / 2)

Tad Devine (none / 1)

Re: win (none / 1)

Well ... (none / 0)

Well... (none / 0)

Re: Well... (none / 0)

Do-or-die? Doubt it (none / 0)

Re: Do-or-die? Doubt it (none / 0)

Don't agree (none / 0)

Re: Don't agree (none / 0)

Yes and no (none / 0)

Re: Yes and no (none / 0)

15% (none / 0)

Re: 15% (none / 0)

margin (none / 0)

Three New Englanders (none / 0)

Re: Three New Englanders (none / 0)

I think you're off ... (none / 0)

Re: I think you're off... (none / 0)

asdf (none / 0)

asdf (none / 0)

College kid?!? (none / 0)

kerry's main ground troops are... (none / 0)

Re: kerry's main ground troops are... (none / 0)

And remember that voters.... (none / 0)

Petey... (3.50 / 2)

Re: Petey... (none / 1)

Hmmmm (none / 1)

Money (none / 0)

Well, Trap, if he finishes really close here... (none / 1)

Re: Money (none / 0)

x (none / 0)

Re: x (none / 0)

Petey (none / 0)

Re: Petey (none / 0)

Night of the Living Dead (none / 0)

Re: Night of the Living Dead (none / 0)

Petey.. (none / 0)

Re: Petey.. (none / 1)

Kerry (none / 0)

Re: Kerry (none / 0)

The AP (none / 0)

YYEEEEEEAAAAAAAAW (none / 1)

7 (none / 1)

You betcha! (none / 1)

"Most Money" (none / 0)

Why would Trippi put up a bat right before NH? (none / 0)

Two possible Reasons (none / 0)

Hell, why wouldn't he? (none / 1)

IMO (none / 0)

Just in case you're right... (3.50 / 2)

Reality check (none / 1)

First heard from (none / 1)

We're number 2! We're number 2! (none / 0)

yes, but... (3.50 / 2)

Re: yes, but... (none / 0)

hmm... bitter, petey? why so hostile? (none / 1)

RT (none / 0)

hhaha (none / 0)

You can get a coffee for $3 bucks where you live? (none / 1)

No he meant (none / 0)

Re: We're number 2! (none / 1)

Put that kool-aid down (none / 0)

If he lives to fight another day... (3.50 / 2)