Daily Kos

Is the Dean Surge for Real?

by Petey

Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 12:55:50 AM PDT

There's been a definite surge for Dean since about Saturday in almost all of the polls, with a dramatic surge Sunday and Monday.

If Edwards or Clark were showing that kind of surge, I'd say they were going to win the primary.  However, I question the quality of the Dean surge.

The final ARG poll notes that they're getting responses indicating that at least some of the Dean surge is based on "fairness/sympathy" against the media overkill of The Scream.  I had a vague idea of that even before the ARG comments.  

My sense is that this is not the kind of thing that will drive people to actually pull the lever for Dean.  I continue to believe he has a firm ceiling on his support at 25%, and will likely get fewer votes than that, although the polls are beginning to indicate something different.

I don't have anything near full confidence in my conclusion on this.  The Dean surge may indeed be for real.  It just smells a bit different to me than other kinds of surges.  We'll know very soon.

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  •  hmmm... (none / 0)

    your objectivity on this subject is suspect... 2 diary rule, remember? This seems like a silly thing to spend a diary on...

    Barack Obama will only become president if enough people pay attention, so pay attention, dammit!

    by JMS on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 12:58:58 AM PDT

  •  agreed (none / 0)

    i am a firm dean supporter but i am really skeptical of this dean surge. few polls show him within 10%. while he is on the move, i am nervous about dean really coming in a strong second.
    perhaps iowa scared me into hoping for a strong dean.

    by Ekim on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 01:06:15 AM PDT

    •  Well... (none / 0)


      Yeah, if you see it as a "surge."  I see it as a return to common sense.  People don't drop their favorite candidate overnight.  That's what they did last week.  Now they're back.  That's not a surge, it's the dip that wasn't real.

      by CTDem2 on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 01:12:27 AM PDT

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  •  Could be the other way around, buddy... (4.00 / 2)


    "Fairness/Sympathy" seems suspect to you.  Huh.

    Two weeks ago, Dean was a huge favorite in NH.  After enormously unfair media coverage, Dean's NH numbers imploded.  "Fairness/Sympathy" is a great thing for Dean, because it means two things: 1. people are starting to get that the "scream" was a media fabrication - that is, that the reason he lost their support was unfair.  Sympathy is what Dean has been lacking for 6 weeks as Frontrunner - all the other candidates had it, while Dean could take any amount of incoming missiles without anyone protesting.  

    So this can be interpreted in the exact opposite way to what you suggest.  People are beginning to see Dean as a likeable human being again.  And they're beginning to realize he's been treated unfairly.  That's exactly what he needs on 2/3.

    by CTDem2 on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 01:08:09 AM PDT

    •  I've been saying something similar (none / 0)

      Since thursday night, i've been saying this has been Dean's best week yet. The sympathy and media backlash will be permanent! People are seeing "Angry Dean" for what it is... a simpleminded, overhyped media hit job. After this week, Angry Dean won't hunt anymore.

      Moreover, the Scream effectively destroyed all the other, sometimes more relevant negative lines that had been building up on Dean. The main source of his negatives was the Angry Dean story, and it's gone now.

      I think Dean is in a very good position for 2/3, as long as he has good momentum coming out of NH. The media won't be ready to turn on him again for a while.

      W was elected to protect Them from Us.

      by Radical Middle on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 01:16:30 AM PDT

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      •  yep. (none / 0)

        A strong second will probably revive Dean's status and kill the mythology of the Angry Dean dead.   A win will definitely do it, but probably give people new reason to nitpick and concern themselves.  A strong second is probably better than a win, even.

        A third, well, that's bad.

        by mlwjones on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 01:23:07 AM PDT

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      •  they have never stopped turning on him (none / 0)

        I keep on wanting to throw my tv out the window.  

        This isn't going to end. This is all out war.  The media wants Dean dead.  They will continue to undermine him at every opportunity.

        That which doesn't kill you, makes you stronger.

        Patriotic, flag waving, radical centrist Howard Dean Democrat. Until we stand on principle and lose our fear of defeat we will never win.

        by rusrivman on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 01:24:18 AM PDT

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        •  right, don't let it get to you (none / 1)

          This is going to be a long process, which inevitably favors the one with the most money, which is the Dean campaign.  

          by Lois on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 01:40:20 AM PDT

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        •  Yep ... They're Still At It (4.00 / 2)

          On NPR/All Things Considered this evening, their campaign coverage included an interview with a single supporter for each candidate (yep, a real representative sample).  The Dean backer wanted to be sure it was clear that she didn't believe Dean was the most electable of the candidates.

          They're still gaming the Dean campaign.  Every news editor knows electability is a key watchword among the undecided.  It's a low blow shopping for that quote, similar to the hack job Nedra Pickler did yesterday(?), reducing a long Dean speech to a comment about a statement on Iraq (branding him as a single-issue anti-war candidate).

          The press has no interest in playing fair.  Get used to it.

          Which pundit most resembles Ruby Rhod?

          by wystler on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 01:46:56 AM PDT

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          •  I couldn't believe it either (none / 0)

            I heard that too, driving home from work.  They went through a positive report of each campaign and then, at the last, gave the smack to Dean, something along the lines of 'My heart tells me to vote for Dean even though I know he can't beat Bush...".  Truly pathetic.

            Aloha!

            by wetzel on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 06:58:44 AM PDT

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            •  Re: I couldn't believe it either (none / 0)

              "I heard that too, driving home from work.  They went through a positive report of each campaign and then, at the last, gave the smack to Dean, something along the lines of 'My heart tells me to vote for Dean even though I know he can't beat Bush...".  Truly pathetic."

              yup.  no one hates Dean like those right-wingers at NPR.

              Visit Petey's Diary

              by Petey on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 07:13:23 AM PDT

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      •  C-SPAN (none / 1)

        The presentations that Dean has done yesterday and today that were on C-SPAN have been terrific.  

        by Lois on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 01:43:13 AM PDT

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    •  "Anger" (4.00 / 2)

      Don't count on this meme disapearing- even though I think we (kossacks) have reached the point that many who were climbing all over the "Anger" bandwagon last week after Iowa have begun to see how suckered they were.

      If Dean does well in NH (/crossfingers) then the "anger" meme will be back in full force.

      Don't expect the media to focus on the "issues" any time soon.

      "How do you ask a man to be the last to die for a mistake?" -John Kerry, 1971 but what we needed to hear in 2003/2004

      by Demise on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 01:50:04 AM PDT

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  •  You're probably right (none / 0)

    I'm a Dean supporter, and I guess, nowadays, with the standards lowered a little, I'm a hardcore one...as in, I still think he can win the nomination  =)

    But as far as tomorrow goes, I think Dean should count himself lucky if he gets second and he's within 10 points of Clark. The other variable will be how close on his heels the third-tier guys are...

    There is something weird about this surge. I don't know if I agree with the pollers who say it's out of sympathy for Dean...I think it might be more unease with how the Rs are going to be able to maul Kerry. But in any case, think back, oh, a whole two days, and it was a Suffolk poll that started off this whole Dean rebound. The final Suffolk poll, though, with a better MOE, has Dean back down at 17%. Gallup has Dean losing by a whole 10 points. I just have to keep reminding myself that Zogby is crack for the weak...

    by jbrjake on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 01:28:44 AM PDT

  •  Yes it's real (none / 0)

    The surge is real. A week ago the offices had to call people to remind them to come to events so there wouldn't be empty seats. This week, overflow crowds at everything. Volunteers are pumped up, the organization is running well, and NH's Dean people are ready to make Iowa a fluke.

    It's finally here - AmericanGovernmentSimulation.com

    by bcarlson33 on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 01:34:42 AM PDT

  •  New Hampshire passes (none / 1)

    If these polls are anywheres close, all of the candidates will stay in the race.

    by Lois on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 01:37:52 AM PDT

  •  The Edwards people believe the sruge is real (none / 1)

    Spoke to a couple of friends on the Edwards campaign tonight.   Both believe the Dean surge is real.

    The real issue here is independents.  As I posted elsewhere, in 84 and 92 independents made up about half of the voters.  I believe we will see something like that tomorrow, as the NH media coverage is playing up the drama in the race.  

    The question is where do the independents go?  Three days ago I would have said Edwards, and as a result would have predicted Edwards breaking 20.  I don't think that now.  The independents are going to break for either Kerry or Dean, and Edwards will have trouble breaking 15 (though the Edwards people see him in the high teens)

    by fladem on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 01:57:00 AM PDT

    •  Re: The Edwards people believe (none / 0)

      "The question is where do the independents go?  Three days ago I would have said Edwards, and as a result would have predicted Edwards breaking 20.  I don't think that now.  The independents are going to break for either Kerry or Dean, and Edwards will have trouble breaking 15 (though the Edwards people see him in the high teens)"

      fascinating.  yeah, 3 days ago, i thought Edwards had such a lock on the surge that he would have an outside shot at beating Kerry for first.

      this is the hardest one to call i've ever seen.  not only could the surge go to Kerry, Dean, or Edwards, but the other two guys should be strong with Independents.

      FWIW, just ahead of Dixville Notch, i put my predictions in to win the buttons.  here's where i landed, (but i don't have nearly the level of confidence i did about Iowa...)

      Kerry 42%
      Edwards 20%
      Dean 20%
      Clark 10%
      Lieberman 7%
      Other 1%

      Visit Petey's Diary

      by Petey on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 02:07:14 AM PDT

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    •  I don't understand Independents for Kerry (none / 0)

      He's Democratic party hack from Boston.  I fail to see the New Hampshire Independent appeal.  I think they would be more likely to any of the other three.  I dunno...maybe it's just the bandwagon effect.  I thought it was going to work in Dean's favor...who's knows, still might :)

      I'm an optimist, but not a Deaniac, I'm off the Kool Aid. <g>

      Patriotic, flag waving, radical centrist Howard Dean Democrat. Until we stand on principle and lose our fear of defeat we will never win.

      by rusrivman on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 02:36:29 AM PDT

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  •  You left off (none / 0)

    You left off the other verbatim reason given by new Dean voters ... not beating George W. Bush.  It took me a sec with this curious wording to figure out what this meant, but I am pretty sure ARG means that some voters are saying they will vote for Dean because he cannot beat Bush (and they evidently want him to win).

    I have wondered whether this would happen, since right-leaning indies have no reason to vote in the Republican primary this year.  I do not think the people saying this to the pollsters are really going to be that motivated to vote.

    by gimmeaD on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 02:03:44 AM PDT

    •  want Bush to win (none / 1)

      Where i say "and they evidently want him to win" I mean that they evidently want Bush to win and are going to vote for Dean for that reason, because it will help Bush.

      I am not sure what I wrote was clear before.  Again, I don't think these types will really be that motivated to go vote.

      by gimmeaD on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 02:05:48 AM PDT

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      •  F-ing crap (3.25 / 4)

        I can't believe you're still peddling this sh*t. Whenever Dean does well in a poll among independents, things like you insinuate that it is really Republicans who want Bush to win. But when we get a result like we just saw in Iowa and now Dixville Notch and Hart's Whatchacallit, that vote doesn't materialize AT ALL. It was always the rankest form of speculative smear against Dean and his support in the polls. But don't stop now, you're on a roll.

        And no, your qualification doesn't make it any less rank.

        "We're borrowing money from China to buy oil from the Persian Gulf to burn it in ways that destroy the planet." Al Gore

        by jd in nyc on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 03:06:20 AM PDT

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        •  Re: F-ing crap (1.75 / 4)

          "I can't believe you're still peddling this sh*t. Whenever Dean does well in a poll among independents, things like you insinuate that it is really Republicans who want Bush to win."

          well, jd, if anyone knows anything about fucking crap, i'm sure it's you.

          i don't think Republican sabotage will amount to very many votes.  this type of activity never seems to be as popular as people speculate ahead of time.  but i did see two separate interviews on the news today of Republicans indeed saying they were planning to vote Dean for this reason.

          and if i were a Republican partisan in NH, i'd be voting for Dean.  if i were a Republican partisan in Chicago, i'd vote for Dean twice.

          Visit Petey's Diary

          by Petey on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 03:25:32 AM PDT

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        •  Whatever (none / 0)

          I didn't peddle it.  ARG did.

          by gimmeaD on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 04:10:30 AM PDT

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      •  gimme a break (none / 0)

        I'm sorry but nowhere does this idea fly with the numbers. If I'm not mistaken, Kerry is actually polling with undeclared voters if that is what you are referring to as independents. This is probably the most baseless idea I've read at Kos. It's like you decided to make up something.

        by WVUDemocrat2 on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 04:00:17 AM PDT

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        •  ARG (none / 0)

          ARG has they numbers and they seem to think it flies with them.

          It's like you decided to make up something.

          Did you actually bother reading the ARG link?

          by gimmeaD on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 04:11:53 AM PDT

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          •  No it doesn't (none / 0)

            Maybe in paranoia land the numbers fly, but not in real life. It says people are returning to Dean more out of sympathy and fairness and less to do with beating George W. Nowhere does it say that they want Bush to win. And where are these conservative independents? Huh? Well, it doesn't put a group does it? Maybe on another link but not this one. Undeclared is what it says and they are more likely to vote for Kerry than Dean.

            and don't say things like "you have to fill in tha blanks". That is baseless speculation.

            by WVUDemocrat2 on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 02:13:34 PM PDT

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  •  I Guess the Dean Surge was for Real (none / 0)

    lesson learned.  a NH surge is a NH surge, no matter what the rationale behind it.

    Visit Petey's Diary

    by Petey on Tue Jan 27, 2004 at 08:05:06 PM PDT

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