First, a disclaimer, I know the results of the survey were previously touched on in a comprehensive diary by DreamingonEmpty, who did a beautiful job on the maps and the presentation.
I am taking the same data, and looking at it a little differently. I am choosing to focus on the critical 2006 Senate races, looking at how the polling is faring for those on the hot seat in November.
The news, I believe, is exceptional for Democrats in some key races, although there are a couple of points of real concern.
More below the fold....
#1--BURNS CONTINUES TO CIRCLE THE DRAIN IN MONTANA
I honestly thought a few Abramoff-less weeks might restore Burns in Montana, and a recent Democratic-sponsored poll only showing Tester up a point seemed to bear that out. But here comes SUSA, showing Burns remains the least popular member of the US Senate, with a 37/57 (approval/disapproval, for newbies). While that is a slight improvement (he was at 36/60 last month), it is not the kind of recovery he needs to be considered anything other than the underdog in this race. It is also far below his numbers from one year ago (56/36 last July).
#2--SANTORUM RECOVERS, BUT IS STILL NET NEGATIVE
After being at or near the bottom of the Senate for two months in a row, Rick Santorum (PA) recovered somewhat this month. His approval leapt up seven points. Before they start popping champagne corks at Santorum Central, though, it is worth noting that the Senator is still sitting on a 43/50 split.
#3--DEWINE RECOVERS SOME AS WELL
Mike DeWine (OH) gained four points from June, and his electorate is now evenly divided on him (45/45). However, this poll (7/17) was before the flap over his Twin Towers ad really broke out, if memory serves correctly.
#4--CHAFEE ON OF THE FEW TO LOSE SUPPORT
It was only marginal, but it is worth noting that Lincoln Chafee (RI) is one of the few 2006 candidates I saw whose support ERODED over the last month. He is now almost evenly judged by the voters of Rhode Island, with a 48-46 split.
#5--THE MOST VULNERABLE DEMOCRAT
This month, it is a tie between Maria Cantwell (WA) and Robert Menendez (NJ). Both are sitting on net positives of +6. It is worth noting of course, that a +6 positive job approval puts them ahead of Burns, Santorum, Chafee, and Dewine. It also put them ahead of Jim Talent (MO), who was sitting on a +5 net approval.
The bottom line: while the standing of virtually all of the vulnerable Senators recovered a little here in July, there are still a number of them whose popularity is no better than a 50/50 proposition. Also, it is worth noting that there are five Republican incumbents whose approval was weaker than the weakest Democratic incumbent on that measure.
Like the House, it certainly appears as if the proponderance of perilous Senate seats like in the hands of the GOP.