Some thoughts on the inside politics topic of the month--too long for the open thread, and hopefully provocative enough to start a conversation (or bring together the various conversations here by which this was inspired and to which it responds).
Ok, here goes. Stated party affiliation changes. Maybe it changes slowly; maybe people stray away during campaigns but tend to go back to their habitual affiliation when they vote. Still, it changes. And, as seen in 2002, there has been a trend towards the Republicans in party affiliation since 9/11: among, at least, the population that has in the past tended to vote.
Hence while it can seem a naive move to "split the difference," averaging the Rasmussen-type fixed polls with the unweighed Gallup-type polls probably gives a pretty good read on the most likely outcome at any given moment, IF you also factor in the "field goal unit" effect of the massive Dem turnout operations & general 1994-style surge potential.
I think that the campaigns, who have the best pollsters, are on to this. It exactly accounts for the pre-debate estimates given by Rs (Bush up 5) and Ds (Bush up 2).
Now, if you've read this far, here's your just dessert: TODAY, ALL THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR KERRY. To know why, follow the jump ...
Question: why hasn't Rassmussen moved since the debate?
Answer: because the gains Kerry made weren't just gains for him: they were voters whom he swang all the way into the "Democrat" column, making their movement invisible to Rassmussen!
In other words, to make a difference to Rassmussen's poll, a respondent has to say, "I'm a Republican and I've changed my mind, I'm voting for Kerry" (or I've gone back to Bush, etc.) Saying "I'm no longer a Republican and I'm voting for Kerry" doesn't move the numbers one iota.
Question: but doesn't it look bleak that even after Kerry torched Bush in the debate he's only 49-49 in Gallup, and losing in RVs
Answer: Gallup's LV "screen," as distinct from its weighing, screens out overwhelmingly newly registered Dems, many of whom may not even turn up as "registered" if they are just saying, "I think so." Meanwhile, the swing Gallup shows is particularly impressive when one realizes that it doesn't come from a baseline set by past years' percentages of Democrats.
And of course the trend line is king, and it is zooming in the K direction.
Conclusion: all hail Zogby ... when oh when will his tracking poll go online?