Skip to main content

Mark Shields wrote a great article about polling in an incumbent/challenger presidential race.  Basically, the point spread doesn't matter:

"History shows that the percentage of the vote that an incumbent president gets in the major polls before Election Day is an accurate predictor of the percentage of the vote the incumbent will win on Election Day. Thus, in Molyneux's judgment, the 'incumbent who fails to poll above 50 percent is in grave danger of losing his job.'...

The numbers of the challengers -- a list that includes third party candidate Ross Perot twice -- run better on Election Day than they do in the pre-election measures of public opinion. The average increase on Election Day in the actual vote for a challenger to a president is 4 percentage points."

So, inspired by Shields, I went to a wonderful site called the Polling Report and looked at the 14 most recent polls.  I found Bush's arithmetic mean score (leaving out the highest and lowest poll result), and then found Kerry's.

Bush: 47.833333
Kerry: 46.25

That's the bottom line: this race is Kerry's to lose.  Also, take the poll on the MLB playoffs!

Originally posted to dan s on Mon Oct 11, 2004 at 01:01 PM PDT.


Who Will Win the ALCS?

30%35 votes
36%42 votes
8%10 votes
1%2 votes
5%6 votes
11%13 votes
3%4 votes
3%4 votes

| 116 votes | Vote | Results

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  Am I the only one here... (none)
    ...who thinks, inexplicably, that Kerry's fate is tied to the fate of the Red Sox? That if the Red Sox break the curse this year, it's destiny that Kerry will beat Bush?

    "This...this is the fault of that Clinton Penis! And that powermongering wife of his!"

    by CaptUnderpants on Mon Oct 11, 2004 at 05:08:57 PM PDT

  •  I know you mean well (4.00)
    and my comment is not directed only at you, but there are three weeks left and I'm already sick to death of reading about how the election is "Kerry's to lose."

    It's ours to lose. This election is ours to lose. Kerry is doing what he needs to do. Can each of us look in the mirror and say that we are doing everything we have time to do to win this election?

    "I don't want to wake up on Nov 3 with George Bush still president and ask myself if there was anything more I could have done." -- Moby

    by lapis on Mon Oct 11, 2004 at 05:11:11 PM PDT

    •  Well put (none)
      Have you written any letters today at youreaccountable?
      •  that's it exactly (none)
        There are so many ways to help -- even if it's only a letter a day or one phone bank a week or one weekend day out canvassing. It's now action time, and it's the only control we have in the campaign.

        "I don't want to wake up on Nov 3 with George Bush still president and ask myself if there was anything more I could have done." -- Moby

        by lapis on Mon Oct 11, 2004 at 05:25:16 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Let's get to work (none)
      I agree that we have a lot of work to do.  However, my point was that looking at the poll numbers, Kerry is in a great position and will stay that way, barring a fuckup.  That is, he's doing well unless he loses it.

      Our responsibility in this election is a different-colored horse altogether.  The way I see it, it's Kerry's to lose, but our election to win.

      A society grows great when elders plant trees in whose shade they know they will never sit. -Greek Proverb

      by dan s on Mon Oct 11, 2004 at 10:19:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Demoicrats win elections (none)
    the Redsox don';t beat the Yankees, any questions.

    this is your mission: TERMINATE the Bush presidency

    by nevadadem on Mon Oct 11, 2004 at 05:25:48 PM PDT

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site