More anecdotal evidence - Bush is toast

Some of you might be getting tired of the large number of anecdotes people post on this site, but I just had to add one of my own.  This past weekend, in a conversation with my mom, the discussion turned to the subject of the debates.  She asked if I had seen them (since I am here in Brazil) and I replied that I had only been able to listen.  She laughed and said that it couldn't have been the same without seeing Bush's face.  

Now, my parents have been Democratic voters as long as I can remember, so no surprise there.  However, she then commented about her sister, who could easily be classified as Bush's base: strong Christian consevative, against abortion, gay marriage, etc. (All the wedge issues.)  My mom said that my aunt commented dejectedly to her following the first debate (unsolicited, mind you): "you know, I'm just not that sure about Bush anymore."  That doesn't mean that in the end she won't vote for him, of course, but if my aunt is now reasonably in the undecided column, Bush is so toast.  Even his base is losing confidence.  The best part: They live in Missouri, swing-state central and most reliable bellwether of the nation as a whole.

•  The plural of anecdote

  is data. I find the sum total of these anecdotes to be really interesting.

  Has anyone spoken to a Gore supporter who will now support Bush?

  by mecki on Tue Oct 12, 2004 at 01:18:39 PM PDT

  •  Gore to Bush

    I have yet to find one personally.  I've heard about some second hand, and the common thread seems to be that they are hard core, practicing Catholics.  I think the fact that they smell a new Supreme Court and an overturn of Roe v. Wade is what is driving some of those Catholics.  I did read about one guy a few months ago in the WaPo.  They interviewed some guy in a tavern in WI where they were holding a Kerry event.  He said he voted for Gore but now for Bush because "we can't change horses in midstream".  It would be interesting to follow up with that same guy now.

    by Ralphsam on Tue Oct 12, 2004 at 01:29:56 PM PDT

  •  I'm in the middle of trying to deprogram one...

    ...a mother of a friend who is a life long Dem married to a life long Repub. She fits the only Gore to Bush model I've found, which is Jews for Bush on security and Isreal. Being a Jew myself I find the whole thing loathsome, but the fact that she's willing to engage in a e-mail conversation with me is a good sign.

    by JeffLieber on Tue Oct 12, 2004 at 01:34:13 PM PDT

    •  Dem Jews

      I also come from a Jewish family and we loathe Bush. My parents are terrified that their granson - my son - will have to fight in Bush's vanity war.

      by anotherCt Dem on Tue Oct 12, 2004 at 01:44:54 PM PDT

      •  I didn't mean to suggest ALL Jews feel this...

        ...just that the only group of folk I can find significant Gore to Bush slippage in, is Jews for Bush on Isreal.

        by JeffLieber on Tue Oct 12, 2004 at 01:46:31 PM PDT

        •  Dem Jews

          I know you didn't - just was trying to illustrate what you were saying - that Israel is not the only issue out there for Jews. My deceased cousin was a Zionist but I have also have cousins who are gay New York Dem actors. I've read that the Florida Jewish people will vote Bush. Have you read those reports as well?
          Also - that Holocaust disbelieving Dems business is repulsive, isn't it?

          by anotherCt Dem on Tue Oct 12, 2004 at 02:11:15 PM PDT

•  kerry did a good job

  In the first debate at least, Kerry really did a lot to rattle some solid Bush voters, especially paleocons. I've mentioned it before, but i watched him put my aunt, who has voted GOP since 1952, on the fence.

  Over 40% of the country is solidly ABB now, and Kerry knows it.  He isn't playing to us, and he shouldn't.

  by Radical Middle on Tue Oct 12, 2004 at 01:24:12 PM PDT

•  I sense desperation

  I live just out side of the St Louis City limits in Webster Groves - a traditionally conservative area. Over the past eight or ten years a large number of more liberally minded young professionals have moved into the area and it appears the municipality is about to tip Democratic.

  I have a couple Kerry signs in my front yard. Over the past couple of months I have had to replace them because someone is either stealing them or tearing them up. The local Kerry people say I should call the Feds but that seems a little drastic to me. Occasionally, when I am out in the yard working a Bush supporter will drive by. "Four more years!" or "Kerry is a traitor.", they yell.

  There is something in the way they yell and in the vandalizing of my yard signs. It feels desperate to me. Maybe it is some underlying insecurity they just don't see themselves. I get the feeling that the Republicans just might see the fight is lost.

  "And like Pharoah's tribe
  They'll be drownd in the tide."
  

  by rawls on Tue Oct 12, 2004 at 02:38:59 PM PDT