Daily Kos

Upsetting polls, bring me back to earth!!!

by dfields

Fri Oct 15, 2004 at 07:12:27 AM PDT

I REALLY DO try to ignore these things.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20041015/pl_nm/campaign_poll_friday_dc

I'm going to worry all day, someone talk me down. I'm sorry, this is probably a weak reason to start a diary.

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Permalink | 33 comments

  •  don't follow daily swings!! (none / 0)

    Look at the chart, Bush held the same 4 point lead just a week ago and Kerry was up for a few days. Big mistake to watch daily tracking polls like this. They have strange sampling errors. Kerry has been trending up in Rassmussen and ABC/Post. The bottom line is - this race is tied and will be until the undecideds get off their duff and realize that Kerry is their man (as all polling shows they lean in issues). If this election is tied on election day, we win! Keep working!

    by virtuald on Fri Oct 15, 2004 at 07:18:45 AM PDT

  •  Read this (none / 0)

    excellent anaysis by Paul Waldman on how much better it is going since the debates began.

    by Coldblue Steele on Fri Oct 15, 2004 at 07:18:53 AM PDT

  •  please (none / 0)

    don't let bad polls, fear, etc. get you down!!!

    We will win this election if we keep working!!!

    Our ground forces will be overwhelming on Nov. 2nd if we just keep pushing.

    Keep your energy up!!!

    by wisdude on Fri Oct 15, 2004 at 07:20:24 AM PDT

    •  Right (none / 0)

      Is paying attention to the ups and downs in the polls going to change your vote?  Is it going to make you work less hard?  If so, you are pretty weak  kneed and truly don't want Bush out.  

      If not, keep pushing ahead.  We will win.  

      If you still want to focus on numbers, focus on Bush's number and ignore Kerry's.  As long as Bush is below 50%, he is toast.  Pure and simple.

      by 537 votes on Fri Oct 15, 2004 at 07:45:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Zogby is the best (none / 0)

    While Zogby is the best that we've got, any individual poll is merely a snapshot.  The next poll may show something diametrically opposed to this poll, sending the pundits chasing off after it like a greyhound after a rabbit.  If you see five good polls that look like this, you'll have reason to worry.  If you see five good polls that look like this for two weeks in a row, you have reason to panic.

    What this poll did not factor in are these events:

    1.  Bush proven an idiot for not recalling his own dismissive comments on bin Laden

    2.  Bomb attacks inside the Green Zone

    3.  Oil at $55 a barrel and Dow below 10,000

    4.  The rest of the bad news about this sad economy and national situation Bush pushed this nation into

    by arthura on Fri Oct 15, 2004 at 07:20:30 AM PDT

    •  No he's not (none / 0)

      And I said this  we liked his polls- Zogby is a whore frankly, and likes to sell his polls as newsworthy.

      HE also knows the only poll that people remember is the last one.

      Forget about all polls - it's down to groundgame and motivating the base.

      Everybody dies alone.

      by Armando on Fri Oct 15, 2004 at 07:45:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  New Distrurbing Zogby Poll (none / 0)

    I agree with you.  I do not like the trend lately exhibited in Zogby's polling, of slow but sure seeping towards Bush.  Frankly, if Bush INCREASED after that 3rd debate (for reasons I cannot even begin to fathom) I would just about give up on the collective wisdom of this nation.  Maybe H.L. Mencken was right when he said "no one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people."

    by lneubauer on Fri Oct 15, 2004 at 07:21:01 AM PDT

  •  zogby's poll (none / 0)

    Bush increased support among undecideds... slightly.

    Kerry decreased support among Democrats... which I don't get at all.

    Those are the only two reasons for Bush's "surge". Kerry still leads handily among undecideds, and there's just no doubt in my mind that come election day, our base will turnout more than theirs. Don't get too worried about this one poll. 4% is still a statistical tie.

    by thirdparty on Fri Oct 15, 2004 at 07:25:28 AM PDT

    •  Actually (none / 0)

      Bush's support increased among Republicans, Kerry's support didn't decrease among Democrats. It's an important distinction to make. Here's the quote from Zogby: "An improvement in Bush's showing among undecideds and a strong response from his base Republican supporters helped fuel the president's rise."

      Bush's supporters are worried that he's going to lose this race and are rallying around him. Bush gained slightly among undecideds, moving from 18% to 25%. But it remains to be seen how much that support takes hold.

      In this poll, Bush had 89% support of Republicans, Kerry had 79% of Democrats. So Kerry has ground to improve with his base. Bush has about maxed out with his.

      If Kerry can make up the 10 points with Dems (and Dems as a rule tend to firm up their support right before the election) and keep his 3-1 edge over Bush among undecideds, then he'll do quite well on Election Day.

      by orchid314 on Fri Oct 15, 2004 at 07:41:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  All Polls Suck (none / 0)

    Even the ones we like.

    My mantra.  At this point, the polls are not important - turnout, groundgame, etc.

    If you don't like Zogby, look at ABC/WaPo.

    But remember, they all suck. They just are not capturing representative samples.  I said this for good polls, the ones we like, and bad polls, the ones we don't like.

    Everybody dies alone.

    by Armando on Fri Oct 15, 2004 at 07:25:39 AM PDT

  •  a suggestion (none / 0)

    there are two or three poll diaries already here. Since there will be MULTIPLE new polls EVERY DAY until the election, you might consider adding comments like this to an existing diary rather than creating a whole new one.

    "This union may never be perfect, but generation after generation has shown that it can always be perfected." - Barack Obama (3.18.08)

    by lapis on Fri Oct 15, 2004 at 07:26:15 AM PDT

  •  Possible statistical noise (none / 0)

    This poll is a three-day moving average.  Remember that the "margin of error" really means that 19/20 times (I believe they use a 95% confidence interval) any sampling error will be within that margin.  They could have picked up a sample from the 1/20 side.  It happens.  The idea is to figure out how to spin this -- the mathematics is way to subtle for the mainstream media.

    by liberaldregs on Fri Oct 15, 2004 at 07:26:43 AM PDT

  •  Nostalgia? (none / 0)

    This might be wishful thinking, and we'll know as the next week or so of polls come out, but I wonder if people are feeling a little sorry for Bush, since his debate performances were so disappointing, and have finally come to grips with the fact that he's history?  So they say they're going to vote for him just a little bit more, but the nostalgia for the last four years will vanish in the polling booth.

    Kinda like "We'll be missing you, and we're sorry to see you go, 'cause we had some interesting times together, and we like you a bunch, but, hey, don't let the door hit you in the ass on your way out, OK?"

    There was never a good war or a bad peace. - Ben Franklin

    by AndyPA on Fri Oct 15, 2004 at 07:29:08 AM PDT

  •  RE (none / 0)

    Regroup.  The race is tied and we are just seeing sampling error and all the polls are going to move around.  What really matters now is the state races and next week zogby will come out with his state WSF poll.

    If kerry was really losing he would not be down 1.6% in AK.

    david

    by giusd on Fri Oct 15, 2004 at 07:31:42 AM PDT

  •  It's the Mary Cheney Thing (none / 0)

    It's all about Mary - I honestly think that this is what is dragging us at this point.

    by chicagoprogressive on Fri Oct 15, 2004 at 07:33:21 AM PDT

    •  and what evidence, (none / 0)

      besides this poll, do you have to back up that assertion?

      by thirdparty on Fri Oct 15, 2004 at 07:39:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  This poll (none / 0)

        isn't evidence of that.  In Zogby, Bush was up 1 before the Debate, now Zogby has rolled in 1 day of results - that tells us nothing, because we don't know what data rolled out.

        A tracking poll, if you buy any polls - which I have consistently not, good or bad - is to be looked at over time not in one day increments - this whole diary is uninformed frankly.

        Everybody dies alone.

        by Armando on Fri Oct 15, 2004 at 07:43:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I know (none / 0)

          Zogby himself explains the reasons for Bush's bump today: slightly increased support amongst undecideds (where Kerry still holds a commanding lead, BTW), and more GOP support for Bush than Dem support for Kerry (something I absolutely cannot comprehend, but whatever).

          My challenge to chicagoprogressive was to back up his assertion with something other than this poll, because this poll does not prove his point whatsoever.

          And I will reiterate a proposal I made a few weeks ago: that any diary with the word "worry" in it (let's add "upsetting") be automatically deleted.

          And any diary entry whose author's sole purpose in posting is to get the community to "talk them down" should similarly be automatically deleted.

          by thirdparty on Fri Oct 15, 2004 at 07:50:37 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Relax (none / 0)

    Day-to-day swings in tracking polls are nothing to worry about.  It's in their nature.

    Also, any poll that shows the incumbent with less than 50% support is good for the challenger.

    We're winning.

    by Todd Gaines on Fri Oct 15, 2004 at 07:38:40 AM PDT

  •  I'm Worried Too... (none / 0)

    What I find the most worrisome aspect of the polling that I've read today is that young people prefer Bush by a very slight margin. It is young people that have the most to lose from a continuation of the Bush Administration...a potential draft, potential loss of Roe v. Wade due to new Supreme Court justices, even a need to help support their parents in later years due to a dismantling of Social Security. Yet they like him because they perceive him to be "strong."

    Very, very upsetting...

    by librarydiane on Fri Oct 15, 2004 at 07:40:58 AM PDT

    •  Take heart, friend (none / 0)

      I was once one of those shiny young clean shaven Young Republicans like the ones now proclaiming their undying support for "Dubya."

      And you know what? Not one of the self-proclaimed "Reagan Youth" among us (yes, we even jokingly called ourselves that) ever, ever voted.

      Not once.

      Young K/E voters are simply more likely to turn out this year.

      by Jim J on Fri Oct 15, 2004 at 07:58:51 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Tracking Poll (none / 0)

    It's a friggin tracking poll.  The only reason some are freaking out about it is that yahoo decided to make a story out of it.  Did they ever headline a tracking poll when we were up for a day but down in the big polls?  Not that I can remember. On a positive note, if this poll gets you to a phone bank tonight or makes you wake up early this weekend to canvass, then all the better.  I heard an older campaign-seasoned guy from kentucky say recently something to the effect of... If you want to win then you'll steal your own campaigns signs and break into your own campaigns office.  You get the point.  

    by ohiodem on Fri Oct 15, 2004 at 07:47:05 AM PDT

  •  Via donkeyrising (none / 0)

    Kerry 50, Bush 45 (registered voters)

    See more here

    Check out The Oyster Wars of Chesapeake Bay

    by mecki on Fri Oct 15, 2004 at 07:48:37 AM PDT

  •  also (none / 0)

    48% is still borderline for an incumbent.

    go pay attention to the other polls if you don't like this one.

    one day does not equal a trend.

    by thirdparty on Fri Oct 15, 2004 at 07:51:54 AM PDT

  •  If it makes you feel better (none / 0)

    Check the chart of Bush's approval rating, which seems to be heading solidly south once again.

    "All governments lie, but disaster lies in wait for countries whose officials smoke the same hashish they give out." --I.F. Stone

    by Alice in Florida on Fri Oct 15, 2004 at 07:52:19 AM PDT

  •  Its a rolling sample (none / 0)

    In three days--Monday--the strong Bush sample from yesterday will drop out.

    John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion

    by Chris Bowers on Fri Oct 15, 2004 at 07:52:55 AM PDT

  •  This board kicks A**!!! (none / 0)

    I swear, since the convention, this board has kept me going the whole time.

    Many thanks to everyone! Except for thirdparty, who decided to be snarky. ;-)

    18 More days GO GO GO!!!

    Fight Uni

    by dfields on Fri Oct 15, 2004 at 08:05:58 AM PDT

    •  My intent was not to be "snarky" (none / 0)

      But this is a very self-indulgent diary. If you have particular questions about a poll, or particular analysis of a poll, then that would be worthwhile. But to simply state the results of one poll (a tracking poll at that) and ask everyone here to talk you down from your state of anxiety is unnecessary. That's just my opinion.

      And I was being earnest when I suggested you go check out other polls. Almost all are tied, or have Kerry in a slight lead, and the trend has been with Kerry on almost all of them for the past 2 weeks:

      http://2.004k.com/latest/

      by thirdparty on Fri Oct 15, 2004 at 08:17:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  yes (none / 0)

    yes i meant ak.

    dg

    by giusd on Fri Oct 15, 2004 at 08:11:23 AM PDT

  •  I'd rather be losing on Election Eve (none / 0)

    It gives Dems and Kerry leaners more of a reason to go to the polls. If Kerry were up by 5-10%, many would just stay home.

    by wmdmyass on Fri Oct 15, 2004 at 08:27:24 AM PDT

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