Electoral Analysis: Kerry's job not too difficult

I hope I'm not being too repetitive with this diary or stating the obvious as this is my first diary entry, but I wanted to give my take on the electoral race. Kerry's job is much easier than what I had first thought. They biggest key to this election is that Kerry has to hold all of the states that Gore won in 2000, but if he loses Wisconsin or Iowa (note: not both), it isn't the end of the world. Bush won both Florida and Ohio in 2000, therefore if Kerry wins either one of them without losing Wisconsin, then the election is over and Kerry will win. The problem is that most polls have suggested that Wisconsin will go red. That being said, if we lose Wisconsin, hold Iowa and pick up either Ohio or Florida, then the election is over. Knowing all of the problems with Florida that are inevitable this year, I'd like to see Kerry just pick up Ohio and be over with it. If the Republicans lose Wisconsin, Kerry is the next president of the United States. I guess one of my points is that people in the Chicagoland area need to go up to Wisconsin if they can and help out Kerry in the state.

•  We're coming back in Wisconsin

  reportedly.  I wouldn't put it in the red column just yet.

  by IhateBush on Sat Oct 16, 2004 at 10:41:57 AM PDT

  •  The Tribune poll

    Well I hope there's a lot of truth in that Chicago Tribune poll released a few days ago which had Kerry up 47-43, but there has been no other independent poll which has shown Kerry with the lead. The best sign is that Zobgy's polling has consistantly shown Kerry as having a lead. If we can hold Wisconsin and Iowa, as well as the other states in danger of the a Republican takeover, the election is as good as ours because if we can pick up 7 more electoral votes, Kerry has 270+

    by karno on Sat Oct 16, 2004 at 10:49:05 AM PDT

•  Wisconsin

  I don't trust the recent polls out of Wisconsin. One was a "Badger" poll that was way out of line with other polls, and two others were Repug-sponsored Strategic Vision polls.

  http://www.electoral-vote.com/states/wisconsin.html

  by Omar on Sat Oct 16, 2004 at 10:44:52 AM PDT

•  I suspect Wisconsin...

  ...is going to come down to how many ballots Milwaukee is allowed.

  That being said, I would put Missouri and Arkansas in the attainable categories.

  If it were me, I would send every surrogate I could to Ohio, Wisconsin, the Mississippi River states, Tennessee, Virginia and the Great Southwest.  Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada are Kerry's for the taking.

  by ultrageek on Sat Oct 16, 2004 at 10:47:05 AM PDT

•  What if Kerry loses the Gore states?

  Polls ultimately mean nothing, battleground states mean its a battle and anyone can win.

  by Lucian on Sat Oct 16, 2004 at 10:52:52 AM PDT

  •  If Kerry loses Gore states...

    than it depends on how many and wether he can snap up OH or FL...

    But if Kerry loses more than one Gore state, I think we can say this country goodbye because Bush will have won...

    by Frederik on Sat Oct 16, 2004 at 11:22:28 AM PDT

•  We're winning WI

  Zogby had us up +2.5 in early October.  Chi Trib has us up +4.  Once we got the extra ballots in Milwaukee, that was the writing on the wall.  The GOP will cut back in WI very soon.  

  by khyber900 on Sat Oct 16, 2004 at 10:55:41 AM PDT

•  REPUDIATE Bush

  I'm not worried about Wisconsin.
  or any Gore state.

  I expect we'll pick up New Hampshire
  for starters.

  if we win Ohio or Florida, we win.

  if we win both, then we don't have to
  worry too much about them stealing
  a state again.

  but I don't want just a win. I want
  us to REPUDIATE Bush & the bunch.

  so we need wins in every region.
  yes, the Southwest looks ripe -
  Nevada, Colorado, long shot Arizona;
  pick up Ohio in the Midwest, and
  N.H. in the Northeast.

  we need to take a Southern state,
  at least a Border state, for a truly
  national victory.

  yes, I understand the Kerry campaign
  has to carefully target advertising,
  manpower, and other resources.

  but volunteers should NOT give up on
  any battleground state.

  so don't write off North Carolina or
  Arkansas or Virginia or Missouri or
  Tennessee or West Virginia.

  let's see a map with blue all over it.

  let's try to sweep it and REPUDIATE Bush!

  by Woody on Sat Oct 16, 2004 at 11:28:54 AM PDT

•  Wisconsin is Blue!

  Bush is dreaming.  If he wastes his money and time in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota this is great news for Kerry!  There are just too many newly registered voters and too many volunteers flying into the state to get them to the polls!

  The target is Ohio and to a lesser extent Florida which is getting ready to flip for good soon.  In my opinion, a trip or two by Gore would really stir up the base in Florida!  I assume Kerry doesn't want to be overshadowed, but he won't be come 11/2.

  Once Bubba gets on the trail Bush is toast!  Bubba can carry Arkansas on his shoulders with two high profile visits.  Chalk it up!

  Colorado and Nevada might be purchased with one or two solid appearances by Kerry!

  by beagleandtabby on Sat Oct 16, 2004 at 11:52:31 AM PDT