Early in his term, Bush imposed sanctions on steel imports in order to protect PA, OH and WV steel industries. While manufacturers cried bloody hell -- their cost of conducting business, hence the cost of their products, had to increase to account for the more expensive US steel -- Bush(Rove) saw the move as a way to solidify his hold on WV and OH and bring PA back into contention.
The EU struck back, and with the blessing of the WTO, will now impose sanctions on critical industries in critical swing states: Florida citrus, textiles made in the Southeast, Harleys made in PA, WI and MO.
Furthermore, steel-using industries are banding together to fight the tariffs politically.
"I think the loss to the president, if he were not to rescind the tariffs, would be of substance," said Rep. Joseph Knollenberg, R-Mich., who has authored a bill that would lift the current tariffs on steel imports imposed by Bush 18 months ago.
Knollenberg represents the suburbs of Detroit, an area that includes about 1,500 manufacturers that produce tools, cars and other products dependent on steel. He warns that if tariffs remain in place, Bush risks this crucial swing state, one of several that could prove to be the lynchpin to a second term.
"I can say [that Bush not rescinding tariffs] would cause a disruption and that would be a problem for him," Knollenberg told Foxnews.com. "These steel consumer folks never had a reason to organize. They are together now."
Steel consumers hail from the so-called rust belt of Michigan and Illinois -- states with concentrated auto industries -- as well as Wisconsin and Minnesota, home to smaller manufacturers hit by higher steel prices. Collectively, they have lost nearly $680 million in capital and labor returns since the tariffs were put into place, according to International Trade Commission numbers.
These four states share a total of 47 electoral votes in the 2004 election and have hosted Bush no less than 36 times since his inauguration. In 2000, Bush lost all four states to Al Gore by varying measures -- Michigan by 5 percent, Illinois by 12 percent, Minnesota by 2 percent and Wisconsin by only about 5,700 votes.
The White House is suddenly in a pickle that far outweighs any benefit garnered from the original sanctions.
Rove is now rumored to favor lifting the sanctions. However, that move would create an outcry from WV, OH, and PA. WV and OH are must-win states for Bush, and he can ill-afford to look weak in the face of those "surrender-monkey" Europeans. You can't demonize an entire continent as long as the Bushies have and then back down when they flex their muscles.
But if he doesn't back down, then he faces weeks of negative press and outraged workers across more states than were helped.
D-Day is December 5. If the US steel tariffs are still in place, the EU will strike back, and it will probably be joined by similar sanctions from Japan, Brazil, South Korea, Norway, New Zealand and Switzerland.