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Originally posted to GT on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 04:15 AM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  October 14th was a good Bush day n/t (none)

    A society grows great when elders plant trees in whose shade they know they will never sit. -Greek Proverb

    by dan s on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 04:19:24 AM PDT

  •  What else is there to say? (4.00)
    Surely at Dailykos, someone will think of something.

    John Kerry: Strong, decent, unruffled, consistent, presidential. John Kerry: The Real Deal

    by DCDemocrat on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 04:20:11 AM PDT

  •  You Made My Morning (none)
    Now I'll drive to work with my head just a little higher, and a wisp of a song in my heart.  Not that I really pay much attention to these polls, mind you, but the weight of the polling over the weekend had me down just a bit.

    There was never a good war or a bad peace. - Ben Franklin

    by AndyPA on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 04:20:42 AM PDT

  •  Understanding 3 Day Trackers (none)
    Bush had a great polling day on Thursday.  That's now gone from the 3 day.

    Look for Rasmussen and WaPo/ABC to follow with similar Kerry jumps.

  •  tomorrow (none)
    Tommorrow Kerry will be ahead..
    •  Well... (none)
      let's not get ahead of ourselves.  Let this poll put a spring in your step, and leave predicting the future to the pollsters.

      Rules are good. Break them.

      by KariQ on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 04:32:01 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I hope so, but do not assume... (none)
      ...you set yourself up.  Zogby often telegraphs and his statement again today that the lead is changing back and forth, could mean Bush had a good day again.  TOdy's poll is great news, but we are going to kill ourselves if we live and die by these fluctuations.
  •  Yesssss! (none)
    Recommended. Just to cheer everyone up.
  •  Scarecrow Walking! (none)

    The Tin Man abides...

    How can conservatives follow a man who thinks Friedrich von Hayek is the real name of Snoopy's WWI alter ego?

    by Thoreaufare on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 04:33:36 AM PDT

  •  Not to get overly interpretative (none)
    but it means that Bush is in serious trouble with 2 weeks to go in this thing.  There is almost no air or momentum in the Bush campaign other than PR from meaningless polls.  Kerry clearly has the momentum if you've been looking at his rallies and press coverage nationally and locally.

    We've gotta deal with the Sinclair crap and all the lies that Bush will tell today in NJ.  But we're ready.

  •  The flu vaccine shortage will be Bush's downfall (none)
    Unless he pulls off some sort of miracle, which I don't expect, look for Bush's numbers to crater this week over the flu vaccine shortage. People are pissed. This is a disaster for Bush, especially in Florida. Who knows what sort of distraction he and his henchmen are going to try to engineer to take our minds off this collossal mess.
    •  Agree, this should be pushed hard (none)
      Lack of Flu shots could be one of those trivial issues (at least compared to war, economy, etc) that works to the Dems favor, for a change.

      I briefly saw a CNN piece by Bill Schneider this weekend that hammered Bush on this issue. I especially liked his interpretation of Bush's comments that the CDC would help direct where the flu shots would go as evidence for gov't control of medicine, something Bush is supposed to be against.

      •  Whre is the Anthrax killer? (none)
        According to the NY Times Yesterday, last year' Bush Budget allocated

        $5.6 B illion for anthrax vaccine versus

        $260 M illion for Flu

        At $8/dose, the entire US population could have been vaccinated for $2.3 billion.

        So, for all that money spent, where is an Anthrax vaccine, and more importantly where is the anthrax killer?

        Anthrax is like Saddam Hussein, a scary thing, that nevertheless poses no real or substantial threat to Americans.

        The Flu is like Al Queada, real, pervasive, and persistant.

        Why does Bush fund the scary things that don't happen, but ignores the real killers?

        Is there a pattern here?

        "Freedom is Everyday Low Prices" Graffiti 2003, Anonymous

        by dbratl on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 05:33:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  was talking to my parents last night (none)
        they both work for the FDA, and realize the shortage is not entirely Bush's fault.  my response:

        "So?  If it works, take him down"

        (I know, I know, I'm a bad person)

        who in the what now?

        by slapshot57 on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 07:29:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  What happened Thursday? (none)
    I was traveling Thursday thru Sunday, and didn't have time to look at the polls.  When I got back yesterday, I had a gloating email from a Bush-loving friend, showing Kerry down across the board.  What the heck happened Thursday?  Why did Bush have a good polling day?  

    I was hoping that the debates had put him away for good, but obviously not.  Was it the Mary Cheney remark?  That, I think, was a big mistake.  It looked petty and mean, and there was no need to emphasize a fact that was already well known.

    "Some people call you the elite....I call you my base." George W. Bush in Fahrenheit 9/11 trailer.

    by tomathawl on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 04:55:08 AM PDT

  •  They'll have to find comfort... (none)
    ...in Gallup for a while.

    It's time for the Christian Right to meet the right Christians.

    by rightchristians on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 05:01:21 AM PDT

  •  If you must look at polls . . . (none)
    the Zogby poll is the only poll you need. Consider this race a tie all the way until election day, and do everything you can do to tip the balance.

    Also, consider you have people like me, who've never done anything for a campaign in their whole life, helping this year. I'll be doing what I can, and I'll be taking off work on Nov. 2 to volunteer to GOTV in Pennsylvania.

  •  Was the Bounce All Mary Cheney? (none)
    Please, oh, please, run an ad in which Bush is shown saying he does not know where Osama is and does not care.  Here in NJ it would be devastating.
  •  Zogby is right (none)
    We are going to see the lead go back and forth and forth and back over the next two weeks in what will be an emotional roller coaster for both sides.

    My feeling is that the GOP base was energized immediatly after the last debate plus the MC stuff gave them an extra weapon in their arsenal. That said, they have used that weapon and need to find a new one.

  •  You could say this.... (none)
    Who cares?  The nationwide poll results are meaningless under the electoral college system.
    •  I agree (none)
      At one point in the race the national poll was the one to watch because there simply wasn't enough data on the states to get a good read on were the race stood.  At this point there are really only 2 polls that really matter because if Kerry doesn't win either Florida or Ohio he isn't getting the 270 he needs.  If Kerry wins Ohio then Bush needs Wisconsin plus any of Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico, and NH + maine CD2.  But still, other than those 7 polls I really don't think anything else matters.  Any other state that flips would be after these tossups.  
  •  Here is the story (none)
    The Bush number is significant because the two candidates only account for 90% of the responses.  People are switching away from Bush but not yet committing to Kerry.  No more than a third are likely to go back to Bush.  They will probably sit it out.  If the remaining two thirds go to Kerry, the results are Kerry 51% Bush 48%.

    The revolution starts now--in your own back yard, in your own home town

    by TarheelDem on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 05:24:17 AM PDT

  •  Kerry leads 47.2% to Bush 46.6% with leaners (none)
    https://interactive.zogby.com/clickon/products.dbm If this race is tied on election day kerry will win when the leaners are calculated. Right now Zogby is not counting them.

    "To bring Ronald Reagan into this picture: 'There they go again'. Kerry had a good day on Sunday. If I were to factor in the leaners in the 3-day track, it would be Kerry 47.2% to Bush 46.6%. I'm not sure it's wise to put leaners in the equation at this point in the campaign because it is artificial -- but that is how close all of this is proving to be.

  •  This is an election that will cause some to drink (none)
    15 days left!

    let's make them 15 days in which we gain ground, because we can gain the best ground of them all, 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue

    "Our country right or wrong. When right, to be kept right; when wrong, to be put right" - Carl Schurz

    by RBH on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 05:34:49 AM PDT

  •  10% (none)
    45-45 . . . .what's the other 10% gonna do; that's the question!!!!
  •  If you're talking about polls, you're losing (none)
    Here are discussion topics the elections can be won on.

    SS privatization
    Unemployment: Bush calls unemployed stupid and his advisors say job losses are a "myth"
    Overtime: Republican rules very harmful across the board, including middle class
    Iraq:  Failure to plan, failure to acknowledge mistakes, feels a little chilly
    Sleaze:  Republicans will do anything for their political goals, including exposing CIA cover.  Karl Rove was recently dragged before a grand jury.

    And the rampant election fraud isn't an issue people will vote on, but you should be talking about it, anyway.

    And Zogby's daily results are a little suspect as he has KE improving over the weekend.
    We're probably tied or a point or two down.  Keep swimming.

  •  interesting Zogster comments- the full quote (none)
    Pollster John Zogby:"To bring Ronald Reagan into this picture: 'There they go again'. Kerry had a good day on Sunday. If I were to factor in the leaners in the 3-day track, it would be Kerry 47.2% to Bush 46.6%. I'm not sure it's wise to put leaners in the equation at this point in the campaign because it is artificial -- but that is how close all of this is proving to be.

    "This is, as I have said before, the same kind of roller coaster ride we saw in 2000 with the lead changing back and forth and neither candidate able to open up any kind of lead.

    "Kerry is back to consolidating his support among Democrats, 82%-11%, and now holds a 44%-37% lead among Independents (who still have 14% undecided).

    "Today's results read like a Michelin Guide (or AAA Road Atlas): Kerry leads in big cities (53%-37%), while Bush trumps in rural areas (53%-39%). Bush holds a very slim advantage in the suburbs (48%-43%), but they are tied at 45% in small cities.

    "Kerry now has a 4 point lead among Catholics (Gore won this group by 5 in 2000). There is a continued lack of evidence that Bush is making any headway among Jewish voters (a small sub-sample, but the average of all days of polling throughout the year and in this round does not reveal
    any Bush progress).

    "Interestingly, there is no likeability gap. Both men have near identical ratings."

    So, fav/unfav for the candidates is the same, but...

    we're talking 45-45, with a job approval of 45 when Larry Sabado says the incumbent must have 51% or he loses (the single most important number).

    Since this good Bush number on Thursday was pre-debate, we're talking about a last gasp of the faithful. Kerry's unfavs did not go up in either the gallup or Zogby... in other words, Mary Cheney has had no effect on this election so far, and in the end will hurt Bush with the Blue Hairs (the repub moralist ladies who deserted Nixon only when he cursed in the WH and not before). They are very unforgiving.

    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

    by Greg Dworkin on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 05:45:42 AM PDT

    •  Live by the polls... (none)
      ...die by the polls. What doesn't kill you makes you stronger, etc. But this has been a hellish ride. I'd prefer to stay cool but the outcome of THIS election is crucial. I'll bet J/K is holding it together beautifully though - makes me respect him even more! I believe I read that his MO was not to be concerned about the margin of victory, as long as it IS a victory, and he was confident in his ability to accomplish this.
    •  why do people keep saying (none)
      that Thursday's numbers were pre-debate? Yours is the second or third comment with this statement.

      "I don't want to wake up on Nov 3 with George Bush still president and ask myself if there was anything more I could have done." -- Moby

      by lapis on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 07:05:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  a rolling poll gets their numbers M-T W (none)
        and publishes Thursday. The Wed numbers are obtained during the day, not at 10:30 est when the debate is over.

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 07:32:49 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Because... (none)
        The numbers published on Thursday are from the previous day, Wednesday, the day of the debate.  

        However, the debate did not occur until late in the evening, and all polling would generally have been completed by that time.  Thus, the numbers are pre-debate.  

        In Britain they admit to having royalty. In the United States we pretend we don't have any, and then we elect them president.

        by Asak on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 07:33:31 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  thanks (none)
          when everyone said "Thursdays" numbers, I thought they meant numbers taken from Thursday. Thanks for the clarification.

          "I don't want to wake up on Nov 3 with George Bush still president and ask myself if there was anything more I could have done." -- Moby

          by lapis on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 07:45:31 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Thursday vs Wednesday (none)
    Bush's good polling day was Thursday.  This has nothing to do with the publication day.

    Bush's good polling day was the day after the debate.

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