Daily Kos

New NY Times poll: 46-46 RV

by Buck Fush

Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 09:04:17 PM PDT

With leaners, it's Kerry 47, Bush 46.

Among likely voters (and who knows what the fuck that means), it's Bush 47, Kerry 46.

Bush's approval is at 44 percent.  If his approval rating is this low on Election Day, he's going down for certain.

Article here (NY Times, registration required).  Click on the "Interactive" link on the right for the internals (it's a 42 page PDF file).

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  •  Some highlights (none / 0)

    wo weeks before Election Day, voters hold a sharply critical view of President Bush's record in office, but they have strong reservations about Senator John Kerry, leaving the race in a tie, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.

    Mr. Bush's job approval rating is at 44 percent, a dangerously low number for an incumbent president, and one of the lowest of his tenure. A majority of voters said that they disapproved of the way Mr. Bush had managed the economy and the war in Iraq, and - echoing a refrain of Mr. Kerry's - that his tax cuts had favored the wealthy. Voters said that Mr. Kerry would do a better job of preserving Social Security, creating jobs and ending the war in Iraq.

    But a majority of Americans continue to see Mr. Kerry as an untrustworthy politician who will say what he thinks people want to hear. More than half of respondents said they considered him liberal, reflecting a dominant line of attack by Mr. Bush this fall.

    The poll found the two candidates each drawing 46 percent of all registered voters in a head-to-head race. Among likely voters in a two-way race, Mr. Bush has 47 percent, with 46 percent for Mr. Kerry.

    ... The poll findings were highly unusual in that many measures used by pollsters to determine the strength of an incumbent - from job approval to the percentage of Americans who believe the country is heading in the wrong direction (59 percent) - would normally signal trouble for an incumbent.

    In addition, voters seem to be listening to many of Mr. Kerry's arguments; 59 percent, for example, said they thought that Mr. Bush's policies favored corporate interests.

    Proudly advancing the Insidious Liberal Agenda(TM) since 1978.

    by Buck Fush on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 09:05:21 PM PDT

    •  eep (none / 0)

      That blockquote was supposed to begin with a "t".

      I don't know how I'll survive the next wo weeks...

      Proudly advancing the Insidious Liberal Agenda(TM) since 1978.

      by Buck Fush on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 09:06:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  So do we think (none / 0)

      this is going to be completely ignored on MSNBC, CNN, etc.?  Runs against their declarations today that "Bush is on top!  Bush is going to win!"  Or are they going to like the idea of being complete idiots who change their mind constantly?

      kerry/edwards 5765

      by arh8 on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 09:07:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  No one watches MSNBC anyway... (none / 0)

        Best thing to do with MSNBC is to ignore them.  Hardly anyone watches Chris Mathews either.  If no one watches then he'll go under.  

        Don't like XOM and OPEC? What have YOU done to reduce your oil consumption? Hot air does NOT constitute a renewable resource!

        by Asak on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 09:12:47 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I hear this argument (none / 0)

          I hear this argument all the time that "no body watches the cable media anyway" Ok that's true but... the other members of the media and political junkies and bloggers do watch them--a lot.

          And what happens is that whatever they ARE saying on their stupid shows enters the consciousness of the other reporters.  Then it trickles down into conventional wisdom that taints the way they write their headlines and comes into play when deciding what stories they will report on.

          If all these shows are saying that Kerry is losing steam for example... the other reporters are more likely to ask the Kerry campaign people questions like "what are you going to do to turn things around?  Do you think the lesbian comment hurt you fatally? Is the Kerry campaign in chaos?  Why are you not likeable?"

          If those questions sound familiar it's because they have all been asked before with ridiculous frequency.

          The reporters are in an echo chamber and whoever yells the loudest gets the most echos.

          Let's be honest.

          by diplomatic on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 09:17:53 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Ok... (none / 0)

            But the thing is, this is assuming that all the other media ignore all the other polls.  

            We always knew we were going to be facing a hostile media.  The problem is, that hostile media wasn't very effective in 2000-- they couldn't even sink Gore.  They're not going to play a big role this time around either.  

            Don't like XOM and OPEC? What have YOU done to reduce your oil consumption? Hot air does NOT constitute a renewable resource!

            by Asak on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 09:24:50 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Yes they will ignore it (none / 0)

        You are very astute to point out that the media already has its STORYLINE and they are stubborn whores that stick to their talking points for weeks at a time until some big event hits them in the face and forces them to change the conventional wisdom.

        I am afraid that they have now stuck Kerry into a "he is behind and time is running out" kind of plot and they will "keep him there" right up until election day.

        It's all manufactured BS and they do what they want to get ratings.  Oh and they are right-leaning biased pieces of crap lately.

        Let's be honest.

        by diplomatic on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 09:14:28 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Not going to be close... (none / 0)

      In addition, voters seem to be listening to many of Mr. Kerry's arguments; 59 percent, for example, said they thought that Mr. Bush's policies favored corporate interests.

      People will claim they don't trust politicians up till the last moment.  The undecideds have already decided to go against Bush.  They're listening to Kerry's arguments and they agree with them.  The election is not even going to be close and Bush will be lucky to do much better than 45%.  

      Don't like XOM and OPEC? What have YOU done to reduce your oil consumption? Hot air does NOT constitute a renewable resource!

      by Asak on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 09:11:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  ummm, I like your sunny optimism! (none / 0)

        Seriously, I think there is a reasonable chance this could be a Kerry landslide.

        Did you see Countdown tonight? Keith had a very thorough analysis of ALL the polls, in which he quickly countered the fucked up Gallup Poll with the Zogby and Reuters polls. Then he had an analyst (can't remember who) talking about how undecideds ALWAYS break hard for the challenger and how the race is looking bad for Bush.

        "If you are what you say you are...a superstar...then have no fear, the camera's here." lupe fiasco

        by pacific city on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 11:12:42 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Even more good news! (none / 0)

    Generic congressional ballot: 46% Dem, 38% Rep.  If this is accurate, it's the biggest Dem lead on this question since July (most recent polls have had the margin at 3-5 points).  This is not far from where the polls were in late Oct. 1994.

    Also, Democratic Party favorable rating is at 52 percent, compared to 47 for Republicans.

    Proudly advancing the Insidious Liberal Agenda(TM) since 1978.

    by Buck Fush on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 09:12:18 PM PDT

    •  Holy Smokes!! (none / 0)

      If that holds true, we can start talking about Senator Hoeffel and Senator Mongiardo...along with Senators Knowles, Salazar, Castor, Bowles, etc.  WOW!

      by Federalist on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 09:16:15 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  oct 1994??? (none / 0)

      I hope you mean that's not far from what they looked like in Oct 1994 with Ds and Rs switched,  because November 1994 was a very bad time

      by zoltar on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 09:16:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  you mean it's 1994 reversed... (none / 0)

      ...right? On the generic Congressional ballot. If the generic Congressional ballot was 46 D, 38 R when Newt pulled off his scam, we're in worse trouble than I thought.

      Nice lookin' poll, overall. It's the same as the CBS poll tonight, right?

      by pangolin on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 09:17:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  yes (none / 0)

        Eep again, my bad.  I was referring to the margin between the two parties.  I believe the final polls before the 1994 midterms on the generic congressional ballot question were around 49R, 42D.

        Proudly advancing the Insidious Liberal Agenda(TM) since 1978.

        by Buck Fush on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 09:21:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The 1994 "Takeover" was a Huge Surprise (none / 0)

          I don't know, I was 14, but I always here the talking heads say that 94 was surprise Repub take over.  

          This is 1980 and 1994 combined... but we get to win this time!

          "Cynicism is a sorry kind of wisdom" - Barack Obama

          by pacified on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 09:29:16 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Polls (none / 0)

    I'm getting confused. Isn't this same poll that was announced at 6:30 PM EST today?

    by Semblance on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 09:15:57 PM PDT

    •  This is the NYTimes Write-Up (none / 0)

      I didn't hear anything before about the leaners among registered voters, so that may be being reported for the first time in the Times.

      by Davidsfr on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 09:21:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  yes, it is the same poll (none / 0)

      but the NYT article has a lot more detail.

      Interesting: CBS is spinning it as "slim Bush lead", while the NYT article is titled "Race is Tied" and goes on to spell out how and why Bush is in deep shit.

      Proudly advancing the Insidious Liberal Agenda(TM) since 1978.

      by Buck Fush on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 09:23:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NewYorkTimes Poll (none / 0)

    Is this considered a dem leaning poll?  I have seen polls all over the place with Bush's approval number.

    And while listening to the awful cable shows, they are saying that this is unusual year because of 9/11 and Bush running solely on this, wrong track numbers for where the country is going is not translating into necessarily bad numbers for bush.

    Peter Hart was saying bush's approval rating was hovering right around 50%.  I am sure Bush people are trying valiantly to keep that number right there.  Because bad internals make a stolen election not credible.

    I hope that Kerry does not just sit back and expect GOTV will bring him through in the end.  I hope he has some more attack ads that go righ to Bush or that we can find some scandal to reveal.  Something to take those numbers for Bush down a tad.  Just a tad is all I am asking.

    by GrandmaJ on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 09:34:15 PM PDT

  •  Interesting 200 vote numbers (none / 0)

    There's an interesting question on page 39 of the PDF file:

    Did you vote in the 2000 election? [...] Did you vote for Al Gore [or] George W. Bush [...] ?

    Gore:29
    Bush:35

    Either there is some major revisionism going on, or the poll is oversampling Bush voters.

    by oaklanddan on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 09:35:38 PM PDT

  •  CBS says it's B 47-45 K LV (none / 0)

    http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/10/18/politics/main649964.shtml

    But I can't find "47-45" in PDF, though. What's going on?

    by msl on Mon Oct 18, 2004 at 09:38:36 PM PDT

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