Ohio

So what's going on with Ohio? No Republican has won the presidency in modern times without carrying Ohio. Yet here we are the, the final month of the election, and Bush has been in the Buckeye State once, with only a short visit planned before election day.

It can't be the overconfidence. Not only is Kerry leading in most of the October polling in the state, but Bush is below 50 percent in all of them.

Fact is, Ohio is a glaring problem in Bush's reelection stratgy. The state's job situation is bleak.

In Ohio, the jobless rate improved slightly from 6.3% last month but still hovers at 6%, well above the national average and virtually the same as a year before. This is up sharply from the 3.9% unemployment rate in Ohio when George W. Bush took office.

The race is exceedingly close in both these battleground states, but the Kerry economic pitch seems to resonate more in Ohio. One recent Democratic survey there found almost 70% of Ohio residents thought the country was on the wrong track.

Slate talks about Bush's strange Ohio strategy:

Ohio and Florida remain central to Kerry's Electoral College strategy. But for Bush, has Ohio been demoted? He's not going to start spending a lot of time in Ohio over the next few days after his Canton toe-touch. Here's his schedule after the Saturday trip to Florida: New Mexico on Sunday, Colorado and Iowa on Monday, and Wisconsin and Iowa on Tuesday. (Sunday's Alamogordo, N.M., rally is a change from the schedule issued two days ago, which showed President Bush spending the day at his Crawford ranch, with no public events. The late-inning vacation is one mistake from 2000 that Bush has apparently decided not to repeat.)

New Mexico and Wisconsin, two Gore states, are apparently Rove's replacement for an increasingly out-of-reach Ohio. Here is what's becoming Rove's best-case scenario map:

Note Bush's upcoming schedule -- lots of Iowa, NM and Wisconsin. It increasingly looks like Bush will end up camping out in Wisconsin the last week of the election. Because without Wisconsin, he can't pull it off. (And here I am assuming that MN is increasingly out of reach -- a fact confirmed by Bush's upcoming travel schedule.)

The map above puts the EV count at 262 Kerry, 254 Bush. NM and IA, combined, would not offset a Kerry victory in WI. Bush needs both Wisconsin and either Iowa or New Mexico. Wisconsin and NM, in this scenario, gives us the dreaded 269-269 tie that would send matters to the House of Representatives and a likely Bush victory (here's an old analysis of how a tie would play out).

For the record, this is the map I'm betting on today:

That would give Kerry a 311-227 victory. And I still think we have legitimate chances to take NV, CO, MO and WV, and outside chances to take VA, NC, AR, and AZ.

•  There's been a lot of analysis on this point

  For example:

  http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/10/18/266/09071

  I don't buy that NM will be close this year.

  by forethought on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:18:07 PM PDT

  •  NM

    When Bush comes to NM he mainly focuses on the SE corner, which is basically an extension of W. Texas and which is where the gas and oil industry is strong.  He's following the Rove plan of preaching to the converted (predominantly Anglos)and limiting his rallies to people who pass the entrance exam and T-shirt check.  I suspect that by now the same old crowds keep showing up.  Their voices must be scratchy from having to yell "boo" whenever Bush refers to his opponent and the audience wrangler holds up the boo sign.

    by Plan9 on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:52:36 PM PDT

  •  Keep in mind that

    NM was one of the few states where Dems did well in 2002. It's increasingly trending Democratic.

    by michigandemocrat19 on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 03:02:54 PM PDT

  •  Florida?

    I wouldn't count on Florida. Switch those 27 EV's and you still end up with a Kerry win, 284-254.

    Republicans have spent four years figuring out how to rig the election. Democrats have spent four years convincing ourselves of how "that sort of thing doesn't happen in America."

    Even tactics like the apparent "technical delay" can help force voters out of a long precinct line and back to the jobs that put food on their tables.

    Yep. Jeb Bush will risk everything -- including his political future -- to make sure W. wins. The only good news is that we can still win WITHOUT Florida.

    by alysheba on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 08:31:59 PM PDT

    •  I totally agree about the delay issue

      Please see the diary entry I wrote today about what we ought to be doing about it right now.

      by forethought on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 10:55:05 PM PDT

•  From your keyboard to God's ears!

  I do not think Bush can take New Mexico. Strong Gov, ACT working hard for a long time, good GOTV effort by the Dems. Also, think that when we take Ohio Wisconsin will follow Demographics are very similiar. Am concerned about Iowa-think it may be lost!
  Looking for an upset special (a la the NCAA brackets) and I am going with Virginia!
  No real evidence-just a hunch

  by NannyR on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:18:10 PM PDT

  •  VA goes blue?

    I keep hoping that military + CIA + lower level gov't employee dissatisfaction with Bush gives VA to us in a real squeaker.  I also think we get NM but I never count on FL because of the Bush Fraud Machine.  AR seems reachable as well.  That gives us 299 or 305.

    But Ohio does seem to be in Kerry territory now, along with PA.

    by Mimikatz on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:35:54 PM PDT

    •  VA can be blue

      Disgust with shrub will pull many non-voters out of the woodwork. My little anecdote in rural SW VA:

      Housekeeper at work - I started talking with her a few months ago about the election. At first she said she's never been very interested in politics. She hasn't voted in at least 10  years maybe more, she said, but she's voting for Kerry. She has a nephew in Iraq and sees no good reason for him to be there.

      Had her check on her registration a while back and we're good to go.

      Vice harms the doer ~ Socrates

      by kdub on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:55:00 PM PDT

    •  Blue VA

      First post here, so be gentle. :)

      I think VA has a good chance of going blue.  I'm a college student in Northern VA, and there's a ton of Kerry support up here, and we're the most populous part of the state.  I almost speak to exclusively Kerry folks canvassing.
      Even in the also-populous southern coastal area (Hampton Roads), there's enough support to pull us through.  I feel like the major military presence in the area is sick of Iraq, and with the Schrock scandal hitting that region, it has probably shifted demographics in our favor a bit.
      If we can outweigh the red-leaning rural areas, VA might just be a surprise this year.

      by Mousefeet on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 02:16:13 PM PDT

      •  Hampton Roads paper endorses Kerry?

        It seems to me I read that somewhere (MyDD?) today.  If so, that might strengthen the Kerry vote a little.  Glad to hear my instincts fortified, since I'm here in Berkeley, and don't know much about VA.  But I do know disgruntled gov't employees.

        by Mimikatz on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 02:32:12 PM PDT

      •  Another solid group in VA

        is anybody with any connections whatever to the National Park Service. The retirees group is the only one that can speak out, but rape, ruin and havoc BushCo has worked via the Interior Department upper management is beyond belief.

        by Xan on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 02:45:44 PM PDT

      •  another blue VA enclave...

        is here in Charlottesville. Only 40,000 residents, but it'll go solidly for Kerry. My neighborhood is a sea of Kerry signs, and it only goes red out in the sparsely-populated counties.

        by lanellici on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 03:00:23 PM PDT

      •  Winchester

        I'm surprised to see all the Kerry signs in Winchester, Va. They easily out number the Bush signs.
        Bush may have made a mistake Gore made in 2000 in West Virginia: he took the state for granted as his and did not work for it.

        by Carnacki on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 03:22:01 PM PDT

      •  VA blue.......if we GOTV!!

        Attended a Kerry rally today in Norfolk. Gov. Warner, current Congressman Bobby Scott and our SOON TO BE NEW SENATOR DAVID ASHE(taking Shrock's place if WE have anything to do about it!!!) all popped in to lend their voices in encouragement for our GOTV efforts.

        WE CAN DO IT!! 10 more days!! On the way home I saw a funny sign in a car window.......it said "Please Make The Scary Republican Go Away". Made me grin.....and also made me remember that it is not ALL Republicans that are evil......just the SCARY ones!!

        GOTV!!! We are doing it in Virginia!

        by carolinadreamer on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 03:44:32 PM PDT

        •  who is schrock?

          and what is the scandal someone referred to?

          by mike from ri on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 05:20:37 PM PDT

          •  here

            click

            by Tiparillo on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 06:09:22 PM PDT

      •  Even King George is pretty blue...

        I work at the naval base in Dahlgren, and for every Bush sign I see, there are probably three Kerry signs. And KG is pretty rural and has a lot of current & ex-Navy types living there.

        I think VA is a lot bluer than people think.

        Sean

        by Sean Peters on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 05:19:19 PM PDT

        •  Dahlgren

          My husband is a civilian there, and his coworkers are Republican by a significant proportion. (Mostly GS-11's, maybe that's a factor.) They think Bush is a shoe-in. He gets into it with them every day; gotta love him. They have one defector, who is voting Kerry because "Bush has been no friend to federal government workers".

          I'm pumped about Virginia for the first time in the 26 years I've lived here against my better judgement. When (Fredericksburg) area growth is staggering, housing prices have doubled in the past 5 years, and new jobs are limited to the service sector, I see purple where red once was.

          The local Opinion page has always been a haven for area conservatives to wax on relatively unchallenged by liberals. Not any more. Liberals here are coming out of hiding. Makes my skin tingle. Maybe there will be more Democratic challengers for races in this state now?

          Basically Bush has not polled over 50% here. Kerry's tightened it to 3 points. Registrations are up. I feel good.

          by conceptual continuity on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 08:14:08 PM PDT

      •  who schrock? what scandal?

        n/t

        by mike from ri on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 05:21:48 PM PDT

      •  Even rural areas...

        I'm with you. There's a chance VA will be blue.

        You wouldn't believe how many Kerry bumper stickers & signs there have been here in the neighborhoods at very conservative VT, and for quite some time.

        Vice harms the doer ~ Socrates

        by kdub on Sun Oct 24, 2004 at 04:42:06 AM PDT

    •  NoVA Isn't Just The Government

      Don't forget that Northern VA isn't just government.   There are a ton of technology and service firms out there.   I'm on the outskirts of the DC Megapolis (Loudoun Country near AOL), and the Kerry stickers and yard signs have a slight, but noticable lead over W.  There's a group of over 100 people where I work committed to getting Kerry elected, and a lot of us are working as volunteers on election day.  So, if VA stays red, it won't be for lack of effort.

      by kplawver on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 03:44:26 PM PDT

    •  We Might Well Pull It Off in Va

      Virginia stands a fantastic chance of going blue. I maintain a grassroots blog that has become the official voice of the Democratic Party of Virginia and we've posted for months about our momentum here.

      I live just outside of Lynchburg (yes, home of Jerry Falwell) and we're giving the GOP a tremendous run for its money that they have never had to cope with in my lifetime. Kerry/Edwards yardsigns are visible (and have been stolen in the hundreds or a thousand or more) everywhere in this region and we've had bumper stickers on cars plastered around town for months before the opposition started to wake up. Just the other night we had a fantastic fundraiser here in town with over 300 Dems in attendance and a great deal of cash raised. Our speaker was former Lt. Governor (and record fundraiser) Don Beyer.

      The polls frequently have us within the margin of error here and, as one other poster said, Northern Va is heavily blue and stands to tip the balance. But I want folks to know that, depsite having numerous narrow-minded, pro-Bush rural folks who seem to buy into the misleading, overly-simplistic, anti-liberal, United States of Jesus rhetoric - we've got MAJOR Kerry support mixed in to a degree that might well be the icing on the cake come November 2nd.

      So, yes, Virginia has a solid chance of going blue and would be one of the major upsets of the election since it seems to be off the radar with the media.

      Check out the blog: http://www.documenting-democracy.org. Click on the  headers on the left sidebar for archives under each category heading to see our past entries. A lot of national-level news is mirrored from items picked up here on KOS - but there is plenty of local and regional content and tons of photos to enjoy.

       - Aaron
      

      by amahler on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 03:44:44 PM PDT

    •  want to volunteer

      If I, and presumably my friends, want to volunteer in northern VA, like Arlington/Fairfax/Alexandria, on election day, who should I contact/who should I talk to?

      by jeff06dem on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 03:52:20 PM PDT

      •  VA Victory 04

        The local numbers are:  [phone] (Merrifield) or the Arlington office at [phone] for the VA Victory 04 campaign.

        by peej on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 04:09:02 PM PDT

  •  I really think Iowa looks good

    Nader isn't as popular this year, we have a good GOTV operation getting out the early vote, and this is the state that gave Kerry his big victory during the primary. I don't think MN, IA, or WI are really that good for Bush.

    by michigandemocrat19 on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 03:05:11 PM PDT

    •  IA, MN, WI: 3 for 3 for Kerry

      4 years ago we were not as organized as this year plus there are thousands of guard people in these 3 states over in Iraq.  They aren't happy, their families and friends are not happy and their employers are not happy.  A new voting bloc that say this war is bullshit.  On the 3rd everyone will look up in the air and see nothing but blue skies....

      by jalapeno on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 05:22:23 PM PDT

•  Nevada

  I don't see how Las Vegas can vote for Bush given the Yucca Mountain Situation and his Christian Conservatism. (And isn't LV about half the population of NV?).  I could much more easily see Iowa going to Bush.

  by John Chapman on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:18:21 PM PDT

  •  Clark County

    is actually about 2/3 of the population of the state of Nevada.

    But Vegas is a hard city to predict.  There is a large Mormon population there, believe it or not.  There is a large military presence there, either active or retired.  And remember, the casinos like the rest of the nation to be run by fundamentalist prudes, because that brings more tourists their way rather than to the Mississippi River Boats.  They don't like all the talk about a nationwide ban on all gambling on NCAA sports though.

    Vegas is a strong union town.  That's good. But African-Americans were also banned from the casinos until the late sixties.  A lot of its population growth is the result of "white flight" from SoCal and elsewhere.  It isn't a coincidence that UNLV's nickname is the "Running Rebels."  

    Handicapping Nevada elections is about as hard as handicapping horse races.

    by LeftCoastTimm on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:40:08 PM PDT

•  Ohio

  Is Ohio home to Diebold?

  by astroworf on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:18:27 PM PDT

  •  It is, but

    in one his previous incarnations, the Evil Blackwell banished Diebold from Ohio.

    by DCDemocrat on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:22:12 PM PDT

  •  yes

    by litho on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:22:46 PM PDT

    •  Rovian Tactic

      He's done this many times before:  he's relying on voter suppression.  

      by Melanie on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:26:00 PM PDT

  •  Yes, but...

    ...under pressure Blackwell said no untested DREs are to be used in this election.  If you check The Verifier at verifiedvoting.org, you'll see there are no touchscreens in use in what were democratic counties in 2000.

    This doesn't mean no hanky panky will occur at the aggregation points, but that stuff's harder to fudge.

    by forethought on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:24:09 PM PDT

    •  Toledo...

      seems to be the only major Metro area that is going to be using Diebold machines. Cleveland and Columbus are using another maker's e-voting machinery (and speaking from Columbus they are actually very good machines if they are the same ones used in the Primaries) and Dayton and Cincinnati are using punch cards. Akron & Canton - one is using another electronic voting system (other than Diebold) and the other is punch card.  

      by DanceboyOH on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:32:58 PM PDT

      •  oh

        Franklin Co. (Columbus) has used electronic voting machines since at least the 2000 election.  

        by Sedge on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 06:27:42 PM PDT

  •  Rove is not worried because the fix is already in.

    Ohio with Blackwell is fixed just like Florida was last time around.

    God this elections cycle makes me think timfoil hats should be a fashion statment.

    by delver rootnose on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 02:49:44 PM PDT

    •  The Fix 2004

      Ohio 2004 = Florida 2000 Diebold will make sure it's ok ... the votes will be delivered.

      by c2shiningc on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 04:48:53 PM PDT

  •  texas diebold machines in ohio

    Last year i remember reading an article that stated the diebold machines being used in ohio were manufactured in Texas. I'll try to find the link

    Bush is not focusing on ohio because he believes Diebold's O'dell will make sure he wins the election, along with disenfranchisement. Watch for poll location changes immediately before Nov 2 so that people will show up at wrong place.
    Court ruled yesterday that blackwell has the right to deny someone from using provisional ballot if they try to vote at wrong location.
    I'm sure this is part of the overall plan. There needs to be strong dem presence on the ground election day. Drivers to transport people to the correct precincts. Keep an eye out for flyers giving incorrect polling locations.

    by demnomore on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 03:16:41 PM PDT

    •  Courts said What???

      Can you authenticate that?  Every news report I've seen says Judge Carr ordered Blackwell to either use the judge's instructions, or write a set that incorporates ALL of his requirements.

      Blackwell is appealing.  (Wait, that doesn't sound right.  :)  )  Blackwell is filing an appeal.

      From the lower, left quadrant of the Political Compass (www.politicalcompass.org),

      DrKen

      by DrKen on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 05:20:30 PM PDT

      •  6th Circuit reversed

        The 6th Circuit reversed the lower court ruling, agreeing with Blackwell that  "jurisdiction" in the statute should be interpreted as precinct rather than county.  Don't know if the Dems will go to the Supremes with this.

        by geordie on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 05:25:02 PM PDT

        •  they've decided not to appeal

          A SCOTUS ruling will  just screw up other states that allow provisional ballots by county. I don't think this issue matters much. Huge voter turnout is really all that is needed. A blowout erases irregularities. I think the provisional ballots are a potential mess -- they could drag the thing out and give Bush time to steal it elsewhere.
          There's really no good process for counting them anyway.

          I'd like to see GOTV efforts focus on making sure people know where to vote, among other things. Then it's not an issue.

          Rove doesn't have this in the bag.  He may think he does, which is another screwup on his part.
          

          by SpiderHole on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 10:10:30 PM PDT

•  Yes my sentiments exactly

  Bush has conceded ohio barring some surprise in the next week...His game plan is to take Wisconsin, Iowa, and Florida...He's on his heels...spread the word...

  by Nes on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:18:40 PM PDT

  •  Exactly: FL, WI, IA = Bush's goal

    They're betting the farm on Florida, basically - and hoping to pick up WI and IA.  

    IA actually looks pretty good for Bush (I wish it didn't). But Wisconsin? No evangelicals there. What does he know that we don't? Why do they think that's a better shot than OH?

    by nbutter on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 02:07:23 PM PDT

    •  The interesting thing is

      that Bush is pulling out of swing states, and focusing elsewhere.  He's made a point of campaigning in PA, which was a tossup until the beginning of the month when it began trending heavily towards Kerry.  Now there's no ads and he's basically dropped the state.

      So they focused on Ohio.  Lots of rallies and ads and signs... But didn't show up after the beginning of October, and now are basically conceding the state.  They're moving further into Gore's 2000 territory and giving up their own 2000 territory.

      Wisconsin was polling pretty happily Bush in 2000 (he had like a 4 point lead on Nov. 1) but Bush took it.  Now it's tied at best and he's hoping to ramp up support there?  It was the same with Iowa in 2000, and as we've heard, the Gore team had to drop support there and focus on Florida.  Now it's Bush who needs to ramp up support in these states after essentially forfeiting PA and IA.  And where's all of the FL support he should be ramping up?  Focusin on IA and WI with a total of 17 votes, yet giving up in PA and OH with a total of 41 votes, and not even trying in FL?

      I'd say "smells of dirty tricks" but the Dems are heavily mobilized and have lawyers on the march, and when shenanigans happened in 2000 Bush was advancing into states in a bid of confidence, not withdrawing from major states.

      by EggyToast on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 02:21:15 PM PDT

      •  I disagree about PA

        I live here and let me tell you that he has definitley not pulled out here.  I just received two mailings trashing Kerry yesterday and we're still being pounded with all of shrub's anti-Kerry hoohah during every network commercial break.

        But it doesn't matter, in 2004, PA will be blue through and through!!!

        by Brandon in PA on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 05:11:49 PM PDT

      •  typo?

        you meNT BUT gORE TOOK IT, RIGHT?

        by mike from ri on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 05:27:28 PM PDT

    •  WI is 95% white, and does have Evangelicals

      by Hartley on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 02:34:32 PM PDT

      •  Disagree.

        RI is 98% white.

        by hillarious on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 03:12:41 PM PDT

      •  On what planet????

        Of course Wisconsin has Evangelicals and lots of them (they seem to land in pods daily), though they are probably a lower percentage of the Christian population here (made up of mostly Catholics and Lutherans) than in most states.

        The ridiculous part of your comment is that we're 95% white. Not even freakin' Iowa is 95% white! Maybe the Montana, Idaho, Maine, New Hampshire or Vermont, but I'm not even sure about most of those. Wisconsin is down to about 83% white and dropping. One out of every eight Wisconsinites lives in Milwaukee, which is a minority-majority city (45% white). Of the five largest communities in WI, only one, Green Bay, still cracks the 90% white mark and barely. Madison and Kenosha are each in the low-80% range white-wise and Racine is about 65% white.

        by pHunbalanced on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 04:56:04 PM PDT

        •  Going by 2000 exit polls

          93 White
          3  Black  
          2  Hispanic/Latino  
          1  Asian
          1  Other
          

          by Hartley on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 05:12:12 PM PDT

          •  Voting

            Voting is not population.

            In addition, black turnout should be much higher than the 35-40% that it was estimated at in 2000. Probably more similar the white population this time.

            by pHunbalanced on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 06:17:36 PM PDT

            •  If you don't vote, you don't matter

              Hopefully, you're right about this time.

              by Hartley on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 06:25:48 PM PDT

              •  I wouldn't even trust those 2000 numbers

                They probably underestimated black voters by quite a bit. One never seems to see exit polls being taken in the 'hood. Though I am sure blacks made up less than 5% of the WI electorate in 2000, if you look ward by ward and then look at census numbers, things just don't add up. I would suspect that even this year with higher inner city turnout, the exit poll numbers will lag behind reality.

                by pHunbalanced on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 08:23:16 PM PDT

      •  The Badger State

        Has the lowest percentage of evangelicals among swing states. I would cite a source but I can't find it, I read it a few days ago, it might have been on myDD.

        by scribeboy on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 05:00:56 PM PDT

  •  Bush and Ohio

    The little ticker tape thingy on the bottom of the CNN screen just said that Rove has announced that Bush is making 7 more visits to Ohio between now and election day.  If true, then they haven't given up on the Buckeye state yet.  But maybe it's not ture?

    by internationaljock on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 03:51:33 PM PDT

    •  so far

      The only event where Bush is personally going is in Youngstown on 10/27. There are other events, but without Bush.

      by drsmith131 on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 03:59:48 PM PDT

      •  Is Bush going to Youngstown PA, or Youngstown OH?

        Is Bush going to Youngstown PA, or Youngstown OH?

        I'm curious, because our ACT bus from Baltimore is going to Youngstown, OH.

        More info, at http://www.drivingvotes.org/

        by EnviroDem on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 05:39:12 PM PDT

        •  Ohio

          Event starts at 12:50 PM on 10/27. Exact location is not listed.

          by drsmith131 on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 05:46:15 PM PDT

•  Two words...

  Walden O'Dell.

  Who is, of course, chief executive of Diebold Inc.

  He's "..."committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes to the president next year."

  Maybe he means it.

  by RonV on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:18:41 PM PDT

  •  Well

    He wont do it with his machines. They've been banned from Ohio this year.

    by JP2 on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:29:55 PM PDT

•  "nobody has ever ...."

  "come back from being three games down"

  "won an election without carrying ohio"

  sound familiar?

  obviously Bush's people are placing their efforts elsewhere - with some strategic thinking - and trying to overturn the rule book, just like those RedSox...

  the question is where - Florida? New Jersey?

  by narikin on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:18:52 PM PDT

  •  Ah, those Redsox...

    The difference is the Redsox have character and determination, and are capable of adjusting to meet the challenge.

    The current administration?  A stubborn and unethical lot who can't except responsibility for the actions, or concede when they are wrong.

    This group is driving 80 miles an hour off a cliff.  

    by brighton on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:29:21 PM PDT

  •  Yes New Jersey.

    Come to us George Bush.
    Come to New Jersey.
    Please.
    Make us Red.
    Believe in Gallup...believe in Blitzer, Mitchell, Matthews, Hume, Scarborough, Kagen and all of CNN. Believe that NJ is purple.

    As a matter of fact, come here at least once a day. We have more electoral votes than little ol' Wisconsin or NM. Much more. We can help you.

    Don't be fooled by the fact that we have 2 blue US Sentators, a blue Gov. about to be replaced by a blue Gov. who then be replaced by a blue Gov. And don't be fooled by the fact that our state house and senate went blue while we had a blue Gov. Yes. It's true. Gore won by 16 even though we told you we were purple back in 2000.  Remember? You came. Days before the polls opened.  You said "New Jersey is Bush Country!!"  It was so funny. In a good way. And then your wife came. And she said "It feels good to have New Jersey vote for my husband."  Oh, how we cheered and laughed at the both of you. No. Not at you. With you. We were happy.

    And then that 16 points thing happended. I will tell you why. Because our corrupt blue state Democraps told the GOP'ers that the voting booths were all blowed up and we had to get new ones. See how they are? That's the only reason you got creamed here.

    Yes. Come. Now.
      Don't let the mean puppies bite us.  

       Christine

    by jpschmid on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:56:02 PM PDT

    •  I do enjoy you

      mocking the allegedly corrupt Democratic machine that steals NJ from the Republicans.

      by theprogressivemiddle on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 02:11:57 PM PDT

    •  LOL

      Good call. The more time the Bush people try to spend in NJ (or more hopefully, Hawaii - please, please, please believe that last poll and take a long, time-consuming flight to the Rainbow state), the better we are.

      by michigandemocrat19 on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 03:08:00 PM PDT

    •  lol

      DEON n wz-jerseyan

      i loved your siren song.

      by mike from ri on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 05:32:38 PM PDT

  •  Nobody has...

    Nobody had ever...
    Invaded a country based on lies that it had weapons of mass destruction before either.

    And no President has lost jobs during his term since Hoover.

    And nobody has ever had their brother as governor of a state they had to steal to win.

    I guess there's many fun ways to look at these "nobody has ever" thingies

    hehehe

    by diplomatic on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 02:05:29 PM PDT

  •  Not NJ!

    He will not take NJ if I can help it! We will be staffing the phones to get out the vote and going door to door to find the Kerry voters to remind.

    The polls really don't look that bad in NJ and Kerry is spending more on advertising in Philly than Bush. S. Jersey is covered by Philly stations. But, the off the hook raucus crowd when Bush was in S. Jersey on Monday was a little unnerving.

    by shark on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 02:11:03 PM PDT

    •  forget about it

      same rovian trick from 2000.

      and how many evangelicals are there in NJ?

      by circuithead on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 02:16:22 PM PDT

•  Completely agree

  States that are tied at this point in the game that went to Gore in 2000 are a bad sign for Bush in 2004.  He was ahead in BOTH WI and IA in 2000 yet they still went to Gore.  Polling at a tie almost guarantees that they're going to be Kerry states this time around.

  It is also curious how so many Repubs think that FL is a sure thing, despite the 500 vote difference in 2000 AND the very, very angry black and minority populations there that felt very disenfranchised by Bushco in 2000.

  by EggyToast on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:19:00 PM PDT

  •  Cheating

    they have an ace up their sleeve...he's named Jeb and he's the Governor/pResident's Brother.

    by TheGryphon on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:20:51 PM PDT

    •  Groupthink agrees with you on this

      But I'm becoming less and less sure the CW on this point is right.  I mean, "fool me once... you're not going to fool me again!"  We're all over Florida this year.  If we get beat there, it's going to be because we were a) outvoted, or b) they game the DREs. I'm no longer convinced (b) is going to be doable for them with the level of scrutiny we're applying there, and (a) seems unlikely.

      by forethought on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:27:45 PM PDT

      •  Yes I agree

        We have overestimated Rove and his Brute Squad...Rove and the cheaters aren't miracle workers if its extremely close like 2000 than yes but he can only do so much when you have a country burning and the idiot in charge is throwing gasoline on it...

        by Nes on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:33:54 PM PDT

        •  Rove

          I agree with your point about Rove. A whole lot of people seem to ascribe to him greater powers than he has.

          Rove doesn't play the game better, he just plays it harder. Whisper campaigns, grinding away at strenghts instead of weaknesses, and so on aren't some grand new strategy, just taking the game to a new level of ugly.

          by thrashbluegrass on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:42:59 PM PDT

        •  I don't think they can do it

          Lat time, they managed to get about 75,000 net Gore votes thrown out, either through butterfly ballots or hanging and dimpled chads or whatever.

          I just think that as much as they will try to cheat, it will be impossible for them to pull off what they pulled off in 2000.  They'll be lucky to disenfranchise a third of the number this time that they did last time.

          That's what is missing from all of our stories of vote suppression in Florida this year. As bad as it is, it was three times worse in 2000.  And BushCo needs it to be just as horrific now as it was then to even have a shot.

          by LeftCoastTimm on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:47:23 PM PDT

          •  Demographic Changes

            Then there's the increase in the Puertorican population in the Orlando area as well as the growth in other non-Cuban hispanic groups throughout the state.  In addition, Cuban support for Bushco has deteriorated.  More importantly, the democratic ticket no longer has Lieberman to help the republicans get illegal overseas military votes counted.

            by Ad Absurdum on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 02:28:49 PM PDT

            •  Explain

              the lieberman part to me, please.

              by Joan in Seattle on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 03:33:33 PM PDT

              •  Benefit of the doubt

                During the Florida recount brouhaha, Lieberman stated that unpostmarked military ballots should receive the benefit of the doubt.  It was a position which contributed to costing Gore the presidency because the number of unpostmarked military ballots, which could include ballots sent after the recount started and which were included in the final count, was greater than the number of votes by which Bush "won" in Florida.  Perhaps I am guilty of cynicism, but this allowed the possibility of republican military personnel trying help the Bush campaign by sending post-election ballots and have these votes counted.

                 

                by Ad Absurdum on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 04:01:29 PM PDT

                •  i still maintain

                  the Gore camp would have been better served to ... um ... do the right thing and ask that all ballots be recounted.  By only wanting "his" counties recounted, and arguing about the military ballots, he seemed just as slimy as the Bushies.  There really is a time when you should stand on principle.  He should have.

                  by TheGryphon on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 04:26:38 PM PDT

                  •  True in principle

                    ..but in practice, the Gore team, according to Florida law, would have had to separately challenge the results in each of the counties in Florida, which would have been impractical for many reasons.

                    by Ad Absurdum on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 04:55:35 PM PDT

                •  you forgot the rest of the story

                  while the republicans were whining   about democrats disenfranshising  military personal and their unpostmarked  illegal ballots in democratic counties republican lawyers were busy getting unpostmarked military ballots throw out.  

                  by smartone on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 04:35:27 PM PDT

          •  Those Machines..

            First post on dkos, so bear with me. :)

            I'm concerned about those damned machines in FL which do NOT provide a paper trail.  Seems to me there are going to be some shenanigans with that.

            Jeb doesn't even try and disguise his plans this time around, he rejected the recommendations of his own commission (which had recommended OptiScan ballots) and instead decided, along with his new SoS, Glenda Hood (a Bush 2000 elector) to instead use electronic machines which provide no paper trail.

            by TLS66 on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 05:21:07 PM PDT

      •  In Florida -- factor in Clinton.

        Last night I heard that after the Rally in Philly on Monday, Bill Clinton is going on to Florida to do two large rallies with Kerry.  (Goodness I hope his health holds up.)  Hopefully Clinton will push rally goers to go vote early -- and then use Election Day to do GOTV work -- and he will apply some of his Big Dog Evangelical Magic to the effort, and considering he is getting out of his sick-bed to deliver the message, it could be very very valuable.  I don't think Jeb and George have a similar Big Dog to haul out during the last week of the campaign -- and I see only huge plus signs for Clinton appearances at mass rallies.  

        Then apparently, if he is healthy, he goes on to New Mexico and Nevada, in both cases with Kerry, while Gore is then scheduled to spend time in Florida in districts where he was robbed in 2000, mostly Palm Beach, Dade, and Broward.  I think this is a smart move.  

        by Sara on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 02:51:21 PM PDT

      •  muslim vote

        I talked to a Muslim activist and he said 70,000 Muslims voted for Bush in FL in 2000.

        He didn't think many would vote for Bush this time!

        by greenwizard on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 02:53:26 PM PDT

        •  I don't know about Florida, but

          Michigan, NC, AZ have large muslim populations.  Bush will get no muslim votes this year, although he will probably own the Arab Christian vote.  The key is that of the 6 million muslims in this country, 2/3 are African-American.  Hopefully they will be angry at Bush on two fronts and come out for Kerry.

          by enozinho on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 03:22:22 PM PDT

          •  well...

            Most Muslims won't vote for Bush.
            But the sleeper cell Al Qaeda muslims will vote for him. He's good for recruiting.

            by SpiderHole on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 10:20:23 PM PDT

        •  Probably true.

          The "official" claim of the AMA is 60,000 or more Muslim voters in Florida, of whom 91% voted for Bush.

          This year, Zogby says Muslim voters give Kerry the nod, 76% to 7%.

          I'm sure the Islamophobes will spin this the obvious way.

          by dhartung on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 10:18:19 PM PDT

    •  Nah, 537 votes not hard to counter, consider...

      There were 97,000 Nader votes in Fl in 2000. Most of those will go to Kerry this time.

      There were also 6,000 or so would-be Gore votes that were overvotes or went to Buchanan in the infamous butterfly ballot debacle.

      Vice harms the doer ~ Socrates

      by kdub on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 02:04:16 PM PDT

  •  Their votes make a difference

    Agree. The black and minority communities are also aware since the 2000 elections in their state that their votes can really make a difference. Expect a high turnout from these communities and it's goin' to Kerry.

    by ramatgani on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:58:52 PM PDT

  •  FL

    The expected anger from 2000 didn't show itself in the 2002 governor's race...  allowing Jeb to pretty much coast to victory.  Since we didn't see the anger then, I'm not sure we'll see it now.  ACT should make a big difference though, so it will still be close.

    by gdesignr on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 02:02:04 PM PDT

    •  2002 anger

      I think FL is a lost cause myself, but...

      2002 was a weird election.  You remember what the Dem party was like then, and what the public mood was like.  I don't think that it is a good predictor for us now.

      by jkelly on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 02:19:53 PM PDT

    •  the party failed us in 2002

      they propped up mcbride over reno
      then they basically trashed him and gave him
      0 support in the general. I was disgusted with the whole deal. A lot of people just didn't bother to vote at all. it was pitiful, if they had done something, there might have been a chance.

      by demnomore on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 03:33:42 PM PDT

    •  Maybe because it wasn't the presidential

      election?  People know the difference between tossing a Bush surrogate and tossing Bush.

      by brn2bwild on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 04:19:53 PM PDT

    •  Oh we're angry all right

       I'm a Florida Democrat, and we're not just angry, we're furious.  See the diary on your right somewhere from "occupied Florida" and it will give you a flavor of it.  I've never seen thing so organized here and the outrage is palpable.  2002 was different because it seemed hopeless from the beginning, the war hadn't started yet, and the candidates were, frankly, not inspiring.  This time it's personal.

      by geordie on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 05:34:37 PM PDT

  •  Snapback theory

    There is something of a snapback theory, which says that states that almost go one way in one election after usually going for the other side in most elections tend to snap back in their usual direction. Iowa and Wisconsin, which almost went for Bush, are two possible examples of this.

    Wisconsin could very well go to Bush, but that's the only Gore state in the Midwest that I see him winning, if he actually wins it.

    by theprogressivemiddle on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 02:14:08 PM PDT

  •  I wouldn't count on FLA...

    I preface this by saying that I think if every vote were counted in FLA it would go blue for Kerry.  My brother lives in the land of the butterfly ballet & there is huge enthusiasm for Kerry.  

    However, you guys are kidding yourselves if you think that Jeb will stay away from shenanagans this election.  Those new electronic machines are fertile ground for disenfranchising votes.  With no paper trail, the potential of votes being thrown into a black hole in a black box is huge.  It really depresses me but I really don't have much confidence in the system.  I think it'll be really hard to catch them at it too given these electronic machines.  

    I just hope Kerry's got some really smart lawyers on the scene down there...

    by goldilocks on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 03:26:15 PM PDT

•  The Rove's Best Case

  map is a disaster...not just for us, but for America.  It is the ultimate "flyover" map...it reinforces everything the Rethuglicans say about "bicoastal elitism".  Pray it does not come to pass.

  by TheGryphon on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:19:33 PM PDT

•  Not to slam

  my man Markos but I hope your prediction is more accurate than the midterm election.

  by Mike S on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:20:09 PM PDT

  •  I hope it's more accurate

    than all of our midterm election predictions. We were all shocked to see a lot of Republicans who typically only vote during a presidential election voting during a midterm election.

    by michigandemocrat19 on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 03:11:39 PM PDT

  •  Not too many of us here

    remember those, as well as the ones at MyDD.

    I didn't say anything back then, merely came here to get a dose of optimism and talk myself out of my own perceptions that DEMs were going to lose that year.  This time I will say that this projection based on current polling is wildly optimistic.  FL stays red.  IO is probably gone.  Will wait for the next batch of polls before making a call on OH, WI, NM and CO.  

    by Marie on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 09:14:16 PM PDT

•  I don't think

  that I'm donning a tin-foil hat (or an aluminum foil one either, since I've never actually seen tin-foil) by saying that Bushco simply intends to steal Ohio.
  They're challenging Dem registrations, they're hiring thugs to gum up the works on Nov. 2nd, and they've got Diebold in their pocket.
  No need to campaign in a state you intend to steal.

  by jazzmaniac on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:21:11 PM PDT

  •  Bingo

    I agree with this, sadly.  I can't understand another explanation besides they already "know" they have OH in the bag.
    

    by tmc on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:25:14 PM PDT

    •  also sadly...

      I think it's the ONLY explanation.
      Just like their puzzling confidence about Florida, where they cannot POSSIBLY recieve the most votes.

      I'm going to go GOOGLE for genuine TIN foil; If successful, I'll post a link.

      by DickSteele on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:40:42 PM PDT

  •  Exactly.

    Remember how everyone was wondering why Bush didn't spend any time in Florida in the last days of the 2000 election, when everyone knew it was so vital? He knew the fix was in. He's acting the same way towards Ohio this time.

    by Rat on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:36:17 PM PDT

    •  Actually

      He spent all of Sunday before the election campaigning in Florida.

      Here's an interesting quote too:

      KARL ROVE: We win in a walk.

      GWEN IFILL: Really. Why do you think?

      KARL ROVE: I just think, look, the movement in the end in open races is to the party out of power, to the non-incumbent party. Since 1952, the late deciders have gone for the out of power party by a margin of 55 low to 72 high. And that's being borne out in this election. The last-minute movement is to Governor Bush.

      
      

      by Shawn on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 02:33:34 PM PDT

      •  ROVE HYPOCRITE!!!

        God that's funny. He really said that in 2000?

        Now all the commentators on the Rove tip are screaming: THAT THE UNDECIDED BREAK FOR THE CHALLENGER IS A MYTH!

        Typical. They must know they're in trouble.

        Just don't let them cheat (anymore) in Ohio and Florida and stop 'em cold in Wisconsin.

        We'll take all three. (=

        We're also working on some small town suprises out of NC.

        by RANT on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 05:13:14 PM PDT

        •  Don't forget.....

          ...9/11 changed everything.

          And here's my theory on what to say to an undecided voter:

            "Bush has had 4 years to convince you to vote for him, and you're still not convinced.  That doesn't make you undecided, that makes you smart....."

          by roxtar on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 05:58:52 PM PDT

    •  Take off the hat man

      by Brandon in PA on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 04:51:29 PM PDT

  •  look above

    diebold is not in ohio.

    thrown out by blackwell.

    by circuithead on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:56:56 PM PDT

    •  Diebold not the only means

      Fake collection of absentee ballots, coersion of key  dem groups, etc., and maybe even purging of the new registrations from the rolls.  Diebold isn't the only way to scam this.
      

      by tmc on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 02:25:32 PM PDT

    •  Fix doesn't have to be Diebold...

      ...it could also be massive disenfranchisement by their army of vote challengers.

      by DC Pol Sci on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 02:46:10 PM PDT

  •  And now, here's Don Pardo. . .

    to tell us what you've won.
    

    by BigOkie on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 02:59:54 PM PDT

•  if you were a terrorist

  looking at a map of the US, where would you attack?

  obviously nyc and dc... but chicago?  la?

  i'm looking at the electoral map in this post, and find it interesting that likely targets are blue.

  by johnny71 on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:21:34 PM PDT

  •  What a lot of the midwest 'fear' brigade forgets

    It's really funny that so many of the people in the midwest and south that are worried about terrorism is that the only attack to hit the heartland was perpetuated by an American!

    Similarly, the other long-term terrorism problem faced by Americans outside of the major cities was the Unibomber, another American, and the Anthrax thing, which didn't amount to much and also appeared to be perpetuated by an American.

    by EggyToast on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:26:09 PM PDT

    •  And the "happy face" bomber

      ...who scared the crap out of a lot of people who live/have relatives in IA, WS, KS and connected states. Bombs in yer mailbox, geez!

      by Xan on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 04:12:12 PM PDT

  •  terror level: red

    for all major cities in Ohio on election day as well as Minneapolis, St. Louis, Pennsylvania, South Florida and Northern New Jersey.  No one allowed out of their house that day....

    by jalapeno on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 05:34:20 PM PDT

•  Good post

  maybe because it confirms my thoughts!

  by DrKate on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:21:38 PM PDT

  •  me too, i see 311-227

    or a total kerry blow out.

    by pacified on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:32:26 PM PDT

    •  311-227 is

      the clean sweep scenario; or in other words Kerry wins IA, WI, FL and OH.  I think its more likely for Kerry to sweep those states than for Bush to do so but it requires me to don glasses that are a little too rosy for my taste (also a little superstitious too, don't expect TOO much and be pleasantly surprised when it comes..)  
      I give Ohio and Wisconsin to Kerry, Florida and Iowa to Bush we win 277-261 and by around a full point in the popular vote (1 million or so).  And if that's what it is I'm happy as a pig in a poke..
      so to speak
      go sox

      by JMHH on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 04:34:18 PM PDT

    •  I agree

      Either 311-227, or every possible state that's even barely in play goes for Kerry.

      In a 311-227 scenerio, I can also see either NV or CO going for Kerry (or both), giving Kerry 5 or 9 or 14 more.
      

      by Geotpf on Sun Oct 24, 2004 at 03:11:13 AM PDT

  •  yup . . .

    been channeling "311" for weeks now.

    The solution to 9/11?  
    311!

    by TGos on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 05:26:42 PM PDT

•  MO and WV?

  Man, I hope you're right about those two. I'm sure you follow this sh-t closer than me, but WV especially has looked out of reach for a while. I know there's a Democratic and Progressive tradition in the state, but recently it seems that anti-tax, pro-gun kind of arguments have left the dems scraping there.

  I keep looking at the polls and hoping that something interesting could happen in VA, NC, AR and AZ. I know Kerry is running stronger in VA and NC than expected, but is he strong enough to beat Bush? It sure would be nice.

  What about KY? Any chance Mongiardo could grow some coattails?

  by litho on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:21:39 PM PDT

  •  I here predict that WV will be blue

    Mason Dixon and Zogby both had Our Guy down by two-three points.  I know the party's internals show Our Guy down by one-half point, and our GOTV effort is soooooo much superior than theirs in this state that has 61% Democratic registration.

    Moreover, in the blue counties in the coal country, there has been massive early voting.  

    Since Nixon, the only times that West Virginia has been Republican were in 1984 and 2000.  Come on, guy, ya' gotta' believe.

    by DCDemocrat on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:26:20 PM PDT

    •  I sure want to

      I can fe-e-e-el the Holy Spirit, coming into my soul. Help me, Jesus, help me Jesus, I sure do want to believe!

      I think I'll have to wait until Nov. 3, though.

      Proud member of the reality-based community

      by litho on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 01:34:45 PM PDT

      •  If you want some reality to form the basis

        of belief, why don't you hop on a jet plane and come out to the Eastern Panhandle the last few days of the campaign.  Being in the trenches will make you a believer.  I don't know anyone in Democratic Headquarters out in Martinsburg who does not have a gut feeling that WV will be blue.  Having one's feet on the ground rather than his mind in the etherial world of dKos is a great basis for reality-based community.

        by DCDemocrat on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 02:04:50 PM PDT

        •  Can't be on the ground with you

          But I'm with you in spirit. Kick some serious ass for the rest of us, will you?

          by kos on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 03:01:17 PM PDT

          •  I sincerely appreciate it,

            and I plan to.

            I am driving the 180 mile roundtrip Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday.  As of Saturday, I will become a temporary resident of the Mountain State.  I plan to listen to the return on my radio on my way back home on Tuesday night after the polls close at 7:30 PM.

            by DCDemocrat on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 03:50:26 PM PDT

        •  Giving away tix?

          I'd love to come, and I might be able to get off work.

          by litho on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 03:07:12 PM PDT

          •  Where do you live?

            by DCDemocrat on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 04:10:12 PM PDT

            •  I ask where you live

              because if it's not some place like Montana that would be pretty expensive, I would be happy to flip for it.

              by DCDemocrat on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 04:57:50 PM PDT

              •  Central Mass.

                Got some child care questions, but I could probably work those out.

                by litho on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 06:43:53 PM PDT

                •  I would be happy to pay for a plane

                  ticket.  I will arrange housing and introduce you to the World of West Virginia.  I will pick you up at the airport.  If you can take care of the problems you have on your end.  I will take care of the problems on this end.

                  by DCDemocrat on Sun Oct 24, 2004 at 04:59:26 AM PDT

                •  I will be gone all day

                  I am driving out to West Virginia.  I don't expect to be home until late tonight.  Feel free to e-mail me at my campaign e-mail address [e-mail], and I will provide you more efficient contact information.  I won't be able to respond to tonight.

                  by DCDemocrat on Sun Oct 24, 2004 at 05:04:20 AM PDT

    •  GOTV

      Just got in from canvassing. NEXT had too many people in Martinsburg, so they sent me to Charles Town. We had more than enough people there so a lot of people did sign waving at big intersections. All of the teams reported high enthusiasm from the public. I sign waved for a while after my canvassed and thumbs up easily outnumbered thumbs down by 3-to-1.

      In canvassing, I had basically a virgin sheet. I had voters who had never been home so had never been contacted before. Me and three others covered it, mostly Ranson (adjoins Charles Town). I had a lot of not homes, too. But I also had strong Kerrys who I gave the early voting info card to. I had three undecideds: one independent, one Democrat and one Republican-leaning independent.

      The independent was busy cutting firewood. He's not paid attention to the news. He's probably deciding at the last minute. I didn't get to talk to him long. But I got the strong impression if he does vote, he won't vote Bush.

      The Democrat is a waitress at a drug store. She has worked 51 years for minimum wage and tips. She won't vote for Bush. She can't stand him. She saw the debates. She's definitely leaning Kerry and she does plan to vote Nov. 2. I put her down as undecided just to make certain we get back with her.

      The Republican lives in a house where the previous occupant (the one on my list) had died. He and his family recently moved into it. He is registered to vote. He told me he was leaning Bush. I asked which issue was most important to him. He told me Iraq. I told him about Maj. Gen. Anthony Zinni -- Bush's own Mideast envoy -- and others are supporting John Kerry. We talked for about five minutes. He told me to put him down as voting for Kerry. I gave him the information for early voting and he's going to the courthouse.

      Now here's the part I hope will convince those on the sidelines who have not gotten involved with ACT or Democrats or other groups to get in the game. Two middleaged men that came out with NEXT for the first time brought so much energy and enthusiasm that it picked up those around them. They have traveled from swing state to swing state, just helping any where they can. I don't know their names. But their energy was infectious. When I ran into them canvassing in the same neighborhood -- doing GOTV canvassing of the previously identified Kerrys -- the told me they planned to go to a traffic circle after they finished to do sign wavings. Other teams were at other intersections. But that circle was unstaffed. I was picking up my team next to that same circle so I told them I'd see them there.

      I was tired. I wanted to go to DQ and take it easy when I finished. But there they were, one on either side of the large grassy traffic isle, waving their signs.

      I took a rally sign and joined them. If it hadn't been for their enthusiasm, I would have called it a day. But I took energy from them and the drivers giving us waves and thumbs ups. It was awesome.

      Some of you who have never done this before and are able are needed now more than ever. It is not too late. Those of us who have been out week after week are tired. We need you and your energy. We can feed off it. It's not too late for you to make a difference.

      by Carnacki on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 03:44:55 PM PDT

      •  Bush signs at intersections

        Does anyone see Bushites with signs at intersections like the way you described about your Kerry wavings?

        by jalapeno on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 05:39:36 PM PDT

      •  great post. what is next?

        i have heard of act.  but not next.

        by mike from ri on Sat Oct 23, 2004 at 05:47:22 PM PDT

        •  NEXT

          Project NEXT is a grassroots organization made up mostly of young