Interesting (historical) RealClearPolitics information

In all my time here I've never done my own diary entry, but I found this to be very interesting.  Every day I see people across different blogs talking about RealClearPolitics and I decided to look into it's past results (since I really didn't know much about the site prior to this cycle). Using the internet archive, we can view RCP.com dating back to 4 years ago yesterday and look to see how accurate their method of averaging was back then.  Every time you see a freeper claiming how RCP's averaging creates a much clearer picture, send them over to this link.

http://web.archive.org/web/20001023070129/http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

RCP Tracking Composite 10/23/(2000):  Bush 45.9%  Gore 41.2%

As I've seen some people say in the past, let's keep our eyes on the goal and let the polls say what they wish.  We know where we're headed and what needs to be done in these next 9 days.  I'm looking forward to joining you all on the night of the 2nd, after voting for K/E!

[Update] Sorry about that had (2004) instead of (2000)

•  I guess you meant

  Bush/Gore October 2000?

  by NannyR on Sun Oct 24, 2004 at 02:06:24 PM PDT

  •  Thanks

    Thanks for catching that error NannyR, I appreciate it!

    by zach on Sun Oct 24, 2004 at 02:12:45 PM PDT

    •  cheers

      Made my day.  I visit RCP a lot, knowing full well it's a right wing booster site but just because it's convenient.  Good to have in my head an objective picture of how off they really are.

      by glibfidget on Sun Oct 24, 2004 at 05:05:48 PM PDT

•  Excellent point!

  If RCP is off in 2004, like it was in 2000, then Kerry should end up with a convincing victory this year!

  Further evidence is provided by the shifting of newspaper endorsements from Bush to Kerry, and the unwillingness of several (Detroit News, Tampa Tribune) to endorse Bush again this year.

  This evidence, and the polling showing this a statistical tie even before the undecided voters are counted (should be 2:1 for Kerry based on the incumbent rule & challenger advantage), provides us with some reason for optimism with 9 days to go...

  by enthusiast on Sun Oct 24, 2004 at 02:11:40 PM PDT

•  It's Worse Than That

  Final RCP Electoral College Analysis:
  Bush 446 Gore 92
  Bush 51.2  Gore 41.9  Nader 5.8

  "The worst case scenario for a Bush victory will be a 2-3 point win in the popular vote and 10-20% more than the  necessary 270 EC votes."

  The truth is that George W. Bush has a better chance of carrying New Jersey and Vermont than Al Gore does of becoming the next President of the United States.

  We continue to see a landslide of over 400 electoral votes and a Bush win by 7-10 points. We will have to wait until tomorrow to see whether the "tightening polls" may have worked to save Illinois, California, Minnesota and a few others for the Vice President.

  And do you rememberremembers Senators McCollum, Lazio, Abraham, Allen and Franks?  Funny, neither do I.

  by Croatoan on Sun Oct 24, 2004 at 02:23:07 PM PDT

•  Bush leads 446-92 in electoral college

  You missed the best part:

  http://web.archive.org/web/20001110051000/http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Polls/polls-EC_ALWAYS.htm l

  by jfern on Sun Oct 24, 2004 at 02:25:39 PM PDT

  •  thank you

    I've been trying to find this for months.  I thought they had burned it.

    by mcgrayc on Sun Oct 24, 2004 at 04:39:12 PM PDT

    •  You're right

      But archive.org saved it.

      by jfern on Tue Oct 26, 2004 at 01:08:34 AM PDT

•  haha

  I'd never used that web archive site before, but I tried! It sure makes for some interesting reading though doesn't it?! :-)

  by zach on Sun Oct 24, 2004 at 02:27:37 PM PDT

•  realclear politics is hardright leaning

  gop site. please take with grain of salt

  by terrond on Sun Oct 24, 2004 at 02:28:23 PM PDT

  •  That's what we're saying.

    Nobody is saying to believe it, actually the complete opposite.  I just find it very interesting that it's quoted so often now, when it has absolute zero credibility.

    I couldn't agree with you more though, it's useless, yet it's amusing! :)

    by zach on Sun Oct 24, 2004 at 02:30:32 PM PDT

•  I posted a diary on this

  a couple of days ago - not on RCP, mind you, but on an average of all polling.

  I think the average I came up with on Friday for all polling within the last several days was Bush 47.3, Kerry 46.1. Then I averaged 17 polls released within the 4 days of the 2000 election and got: Bush 46.7, Gore, 44.8.

  Ben P

  by Ben P on Sun Oct 24, 2004 at 02:29:33 PM PDT

•  this post made my

  day, do you really think those idiots believed that shit at RCP, well maybe, they kjeep coming up with new "reasoned" anylassi why Bush will win this time. Oh and don't forget Vermont.

  by nevadadem on Sun Oct 24, 2004 at 03:11:42 PM PDT

  •  I remember being depressed the entire

    several weeks before 2000 because of sites like RCP and other poll sites, thinking we had no chance whatsoever.  It's a load of crap.  If you simply look at the commentary of the people who run the site, you realize it's hard right.  Additionally, isn't it funny how they tend to pick the best numbers for their averaging not only between polls but within polls?  The truth is this is a close race just as in 2000, and, frankly, we are in much better shape than we were at this point in 2000 (when the Repugs had to steal the vote to win it).  I feel increasingly confident of victory.

    by briefman on Sun Oct 24, 2004 at 03:19:04 PM PDT

    •  Oops,

      was reply to the diary in general not just your post.

      by briefman on Sun Oct 24, 2004 at 03:19:43 PM PDT

•  I didn't know there was a website for old stuff

  My memory was that the final realclearpolitics.com prediction was Bush by 5-6 popular, Bush blowout in EC, and California in the toss-up column.  I'm a little surprised that my memory was about right.  If this site has Kerry near or ahead, that kind of tells you something.

  by mcgrayc on Sun Oct 24, 2004 at 04:34:25 PM PDT

  •  Final Zogby in Cal, had bush within MOE..

    and he only got 42% of the vote.

    And the following day, when gore was ahead in the popular vote, Mary Matlin went on TV and screamed that she had just talked to the Ca Sec of State Bill Jones (R-CA) and that Gore would not win the popular vote in the end because the absentee vote in CAL would go to bush.  Well as time went on, the absentee vote went to Gore.

    But she was serious.  Which beggs the question, how can you fuck up assumptions so much to think Deep Blue CAL would go Red at the general level and absentee level.

    by Al Rodgers on Sun Oct 24, 2004 at 05:22:05 PM PDT