Some new polls in new states have come out. Only Florida was affected, however, in the result of the state.
Methodology:
- Includes polls from the past week
- Must include at least 3 polls. If three polls haven't been taken in past week, use polls from before then until 3 polls are found
- Republican or Democratic polls are not used
- Polls whose margin between Bush and Kerry is more than 5pts more than any other poll are thrown out
- 1% is added to "other" candidates on top of Nader % (if Nader is on the ballot. If not, "other" is automatically set to 1%)
- The first set of % allocates undecideds 60% - 40% towards Kerry
- The second set of % allocates undecideds 67% - 33% (2:1 margin) towards Kerry
- Third set of % allocates undecideds 75% - 25% (3:1 margin) towards Kerry
Note methodology changes from yesterday:
Survey USA polls are now being used. I have been convinced that, however much I don't like them, I can't justify not using Survey USA polls while using other polls such as Rasmussen or Zogby.
I am now only using the most recent poll from a current polling agency. Before, If there were two or more polls from a single pollster within the past week I used all of them. Now I am only using the most recent.
Electoral College notes: Tennessee is now +10 for Bush under all scenarios, so I am now putting Tennessee under "solid" Bush.
Washington is now +10 for Kerry under all scenarios, so I am now putting Washington under "solid" Kerry.
Solid Electoral-Votes:
Kerry - 171
Bush - 153
Battleground - 214
Percents from Yesterday.
Arizona
Zogby (10/18); Survey USA (10/19); MSG (10/19)
Bush: 52.4% (51.2%) / 52.0% (50.8%) / 51.6%
Kerry: 46.6% (47.8%) / 47.0% (48.2%) / 47.4%
Arkansas
Rasmussen (10/11); Survey USA (10/17); Zogby (10/18)
Bush: 51.3% (49.9%) / 51.2% (49.7%) / 51.0%
Kerry: 47.6% (48.3%) / 47.7% (48.5%) / 47.9%
Colorado
Rasmussen (10/18); Circuli Assoc. (10/19); Survey USA (10/20); Zogby (10/25)
Bush: 50.8% (NC) / 50.5% (50.6%) / 50.2%
Kerry: 47.3% (46.8%) / 47.5% (47.0%) / 47.8%
Florida
Quinnipiac (10/19); St. Petersburg Times (10/23); Research 2000 (10/24); Zogby (10/25); Insider Advantage (10/25); Survey USA (10/25); Rasmussen (10/25)
Bush: 48.7% (49.3%) / 48.5% (49.0%) / 48.2%
Kerry: 49.6% (49.2%) / 49.8% (49.5%) / 50.1%
Iowa
Mason-Dixon (10/18); Survey USA (10/20); Central Surveys (10/23); Rasmussen (10/23); Zogby (10/25)
Bush: 50.3% (49.4%) / 49.9% (49.0%) / 49.4%
Kerry: 48.3% (49.3%) / 48.7% (49.6%) / 49.2%
Maine
SMS (9/28); Survey USA (10/19); Zogby (10/24)
Bush: 44.5% (44.3%) / 43.9% (43.6%) / 43.2%
Kerry: 52.9% (52.1%) / 53.4% (52.8%) / 54.2%
Michigan
Mason-Dixon (10/18); Survey USA (10/20); EPIC/MRA (10/21); Zogby (10/25); Rasmussen (10/25)
Bush: 46.2% (NC) / 45.9% (NC) / 45.5%
Kerry: 52.6% (52.5%) / 52.9% (52.7%) / 53.3%
Minnesota
Mason-Dixon (10/18); Zogby (10/25); Rasmussen (10/25)
Bush: 48.4% (47.7%) / 48.0% (47.2%) / 47.5%
Kerry: 49.9% (50.3%) / 50.3% (50.8%) / 50.8%
Missouri
Mason-Dixon (10/18); Survey USA (10/18); Zogby (10/18); Rasmussen (10/20)
Bush: 51.5% (51.2%) / 51.2% (51.0%) / 51.0%
Kerry: 47.5% (47.8%) / 47.8% (48.0%) / 48.0%
Nevada
Survey USA (10/18); Research 2000 (10/24); Belden and Assoc. (10/24); Zogby (10/25)
Bush: 51.5% (50.3%) / 50.7% (49.9%) / 50.3%
Kerry: 47.4% (48.1%) / 47.8% (48.5%) / 48.2%
New Hampshire
Rasmussen (10/18); Zogby (10/18); ARG (10/18); Franklin Pierce College (10/25)
Bush: 46.8% (47.2%) / 46.6% (46.9%) / 46.3%
Kerry: 51.3% (51.0%) / 51.6% (51.3%) / 51.9%
New Jersey
Survey USA (10/18); Farleigh-Dickinson (10/21); Rasmussen (10/23); Research 2000 (10/24)
Bush: 44.9% (45.5%) / 44.5% (45.1%) / 44.0%
Kerry: 53.4% (52.8%) / 53.8% (53.2%) / 54.3%
New Mexico
Gallup (10/6); ARG (10/18); Zogby (10/25)
Bush: 50.1% (48.3%) / 49.9% (48.1%) / 49.6%
Kerry: 47.9% (49.7%) / 48.1% (49.9%) / 48.4%
North Carolina
Zogby (10/18); Rasmussen (10/24); Survey USA (10/25)
Bush: 52.7% (51.5%) / 52.6% (51.4%) / 52.5%
Kerry: 46.3% (47.5%) / 46.4% (47.6%) / 46.5%
Ohio
Survey USA (10/18); Opinion Dynamics (10/18); Gallup (10/20); SRC (10/21); Zogby (10/25); Rasmussen (10/25)
Bush: 49.2% (49.3%) / 48.9% (49.0%) / 48.6%
Kerry: 49.8% (49.7%) / 50.1% (50.0%) / 50.1%
Pennsylvania
Quinnipiac (10/20); Muhlenberg College (10/23); Zogby (10/25); Mason-Dixon (10/25); Rasmussen (10/25)
Bush: 48.2% (47.4%) / 47.9% (47.1%) / 47.5%
Kerry: 50.8% (51.6%) / 51.1% (51.9%) / 51.6%
Virginia
Mason-Dixon (9/26); Zogby (10/18); Rasmussen (10/23)
Bush: * 51.2%* (50.9%) / 50.9% (50.7%) / 50.5%
Kerry: 47.3% (48.1%) / 47.6% (48.3%) / 48.0%
West Virginia
Gallup (9/19); Mason-Dixon (10/16); Zogby (10/18)
Bush: 51.1% (51.0%) / 50.9% (50.7%) / 50.5%
Kerry: 47.3% (47.2%) / 47.6% (47.5%) / 47.9%
Wisconsin
Mason-Dixon (10/18); Humphrey Institute (10/19); ARG (10/19); Gallup (10/19); Zogby (10/25)
Bush: 49.2% (48.72%) / 49.0% (48.5%) / 48.6%
Kerry: 48.2% (48.70%) / 48.5% (48.9%) / 48.8%
Electoral-Vote Count with 60% - 40% Undecideds (1.5 : 1)
Bush: 249 (271)
Kerry: 289 (267)
Electoral-Vote Count with 67% - 33% Undecideds (2 : 1)
Bush: 249 (244)
Kerry: 289 (294)
Electoral-Vote Count with 75% - 25% Undecideds (3 : 1)
Bush: 239
Kerry: 299