"Kerry Wins In A Blowout"

I did some searching and didn't see a diary on this article at all, so hopefully I'm not reproducing something.

Salon has an article up at the moment from Kevin Criss, who is a 21 year old African American. According to him, Kerry is heading for a blowout win next Tuesday due to the black and youth vote. Personally, this is the kind of thinking I have been guiltily indulging in over the last week or so.  I'm starting to become confident that Kerry is going to destroy Bush, both in the popular and electoral college vote.  Maybe this is too much wishful thinking, but I don't think it is.

According to Criss, the black vote and youth vote is going to be huge this year.  He starts out talking about Eminem's song "Mosh" and claims that the black and youth vote are going to likely double from 2000 and that they will swing a lot of states toward Kerry.  A key quote:

Next, us young'ns. We aren't as stupid as people think. Simply put, we are in Iraq fighting or we know someone there, we have no health insurance, no jobs, and are generally pro-human rights (not for the gay marriage amendment, PATRIOT Act, etc.). We aren't going to vote for Bush, period. Kerry will take about 70 percent of the young vote. I am predicting, collectively there will at least 20 million more voters from these two groups, young'ns and blacks. You maybe think "yeah the fuck right" -- but trust me. On average 30 percent of African-Americans vote. Expect a minimum of 50 percent this time, maybe close to double. That is anywhere between 7 to 9 million more blacks voting. Young'ns will have a similar margin. Again, we at most vote at a 40 percent rate. Young'ns will easily double their numbers, going from 18 million to about 36 million.

Go read the entire article.  Criss calls Arizona, Nevada, Missouri and Colorado for Kerry.  It's a hell of an optimistic article, but I think it's possible.  If nothing else, it should brighten your day.  Go read it, get motivated, and then get back to work on GOTV.  We're gonna kick ass in six days.

•  If that is true

  I really hope they vote early where they can. I'd hate to see a replay of St. Louis 2000.

  by Doug in SF on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 01:54:57 PM PDT

  •  Early Voting

    I hope they vote early, as well.  It's clear that there are going to be a lot of problems on election day thanks to Republican efforts to suppress the vote.  But I think you'll see a real push back against that this year.  I'm starting to get the feeling that there are millions of people--particularly minorities--who are pissed off about these efforts at suppression and aren't going to take any shit at the polls.  I certainly hope that's the case.

    The key is to vote early when possible, to know your rights when you have to vote on election day, and to handle challenges in a manner that will best keep the line moving.  I hope people are prepared to do this next Tuesday.  I also hope we have enough people on our side at the polls to help keep the Republican challengers in line.

    We'll see come next Tuesday.  But I really do think we're in for a surprise.  I agree with the article--the polls are wrong.  That's going to be a huge story on November 3rd.

    by aimlessmind on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 01:58:46 PM PDT

•  Don't kid yourself

  This will come down to a wire and every single vote is essential and there is absolutely no good in spreading the idea that this is a done deal.

  It's all going to come down to turnout. So, with all due respect, get yer head out of the clouds and GOTV.

  by TocqueDeville on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 01:56:00 PM PDT

  •  GOTV

    I suppose for some people, this might dissuade them to GOTV, but for me this only helps motivate me.  The more good news I hear, the more I want to get out there and help make this a landslide.  And don't worry, I'm already signed up for GOTV efforts on Monday evening and all day Tuesday.

    by aimlessmind on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 02:01:19 PM PDT

•  I've got attempted facial hair

  it helps me get lottery tickets without showing ID

  it'll help me get in to vote without someone suspecting my age

  aww yeah..

  (i'm 18 and i've voted three times this year)

  by RBH on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 01:58:20 PM PDT

•  Kerry will outperform Gore by lots

  Danny Goldberg sited a stat that Gore just barely carried the 18-24 vote in 2000.

  by Carl Nyberg on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 02:01:17 PM PDT

•  I'll Bet

  The possibility of being drafted has suddenly made a lot more 18-24 year olds into likely voters.

  by JDRhoades on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 02:11:30 PM PDT

  •  That and the Endless Lying....

    What's it like when you grow up and realize your President and the supposed Leader of the Free World is a serial Liar???

    by edwardbanderson on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 03:03:29 PM PDT

    •  Truly?

      It's no more than what most young people expect. When those lies turn out to mean that they might get their young asses shipped off to some ugly place to get shot at, however, it all comes home.

      by JDRhoades on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 05:29:28 PM PDT

      •  Um, College Kids aren't going....

        Start with those who can't afford college. Those are your future Iraqi peacekeepers.

        by edwardbanderson on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 10:30:41 PM PDT