Breaking: Looks like we're going into Falujah

It looks like they're going to try to deliver a battlefield victory right before the election. Nothing like an assault to divert attention from the missing explosives. Or am I just being cynical?

AP has the story

Signs Point to Imminent Showdown in Iraq
29 minutes ago
Top Stories - AP

By ROBERT H. REID, Associated Press Writer

BAGHDAD, Iraq - An uptick in airstrikes and other military moves point to an imminent showdown between U.S. forces and Sunni Muslim insurgents west of Baghdad -- a decisive battle that could determine whether the campaign to bring democracy and stability to Iraq (news - web sites) can succeed.

American officials have not confirmed a major assault is near against the insurgent bastions of Fallujah and neighboring Ramadi. But Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Allawi has warned Fallujah leaders that force will be used if they do not hand over extremists, including terror mastermind Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.

continued...

A similar escalation in U.S. military actions and Iraqi government warnings occurred before a major offensive in Najaf forced militiamen loyal to radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr to give up that holy city in late August. And U.S. and Iraqi troops retook Samarra from insurgents early this month.

... continued...

A series of policy mistakes by the U.S. military and the Bush administration have transformed Fallujah from a shabby, dusty backwater known regionally for mosques and tasty kebabs into a symbol of Arab pride and defiance of the United States throughout the Islamic world.

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•  My Guess Is That The October Surprise...

  ...won't be Osama bin Laden... it'll be going into Fallujah and killing Zarqawi...

  Of course, our response should be -- why didn't you do it when he was up in the mountains at Khirmal before the invasion in late 2002/early 2003?

  by GregP on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 04:32:18 PM PDT

  •  October Surprise

    That was my prediction after the debates.

    It's an act of desperation, but they have nothing to lose.  They'll take the risk of casualties before the election if it means they have a chance at a victory, or at least look like they are doing something about the situation in Iraq.

    by G Spot1 on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 05:01:55 PM PDT

  •  that would be a "surprise"? n/t

    by frisco on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 05:06:26 PM PDT

•  THIS IS A SHAM!

  This is just a lame last-minute act of desperation by Bush to try to convince voters that we are in a war and that they can't change horses in mid-stream. I know a couple of people who actually think that and it scares me because these are the undecideds- the people who no longer like Bush but are scared of putting Kerry in charge in the middle of a war.

  by Joe Willy on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 04:32:58 PM PDT

•  I only hope

  our troops don't "discover" some of the missing explosives... sigh.  Ugh, this is so scary.

  by Plutonium Page on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 04:33:48 PM PDT

•  We need to be out in the streets demonstrating

  against the war like we were before.

  by DoDi on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 04:35:40 PM PDT

  •  HELL YES.

    n/t

    by Plutonium Page on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 04:36:46 PM PDT

  •  Too busy with GOTV

    to be in the street.  GOTV is the only way I see to stop this stuff.

    by Wandering One on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 06:54:33 PM PDT

•  this is also a bad way to make tactical decisions

  Are our soldiers being sent into a difficult battle prematurely for the sake of an uptick in tracking polls?

  by desmoulins on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 04:36:55 PM PDT

  •  Definitely a great talking point

    A good one for Wes Clark to address, and perhaps one or two of the other good 'attack-dog' surrogates.  Not a good one for Dean, given his positions vis-a-vis Kerry in the primaries.

    by frisco on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 05:08:53 PM PDT

•  Richard Clarke

  has been saying for some time that a major offensive has been planned for after the election.

  I think Rove would think this was too risky before the election - casualties, news coverage about Iraq (it just doesn't look pretty) etc.

  by englishdem on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 04:38:28 PM PDT

  •  I agree

    I see this backfiring. Wasn't there just a video released saying if they hit Fahlujah that 'we will retalliate with tactics you have not seen before'

    Some such. I think this is bad news just waiting to happen.

    Rove has lost his touch....

    by free speech zone on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 04:50:31 PM PDT

•  The big problem we have

  is that there isn't a Sunni version of Sistani to pull our arse out of the fire like he did for Najaf.

  Oh don't mistake me, for a few weeks it will look like a "resounding victory" but when the civilian death toll officially reaches the UN our goose is cooked even with a Kerry victory opn Tuesday.

  by TustonDAZ on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 04:39:57 PM PDT

  •  I wonder if even the

    thought of victory in Fallujah and a big military presence will cause Bush to go up in the tracking polls (he already seems to be anyway). All you have to do is say "war on terror" and "Democrats hate the troops" and Bush gets more and more support. People just can't take the thought of him not being in office. That's why I worry about how many people may vote for him in the booth even if they're thinking now that they will support Kerry.

    by JamesB3 on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 05:42:09 PM PDT

    •  I'm the opposite, actually

      I think that there may be a number of people who say they'll vote for Bush because they themselves don't want to get pegged with the labels or attacks they may see Democrats getting (especially in really Red areas, where voting Republican is just "the way it is").  Once they get into the booth and away from mongerers they'll vote Kerry, though.

      I dunno.. maybe the people I hope for will counterbalance the people you fear.

      by noshenanigans on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 06:43:32 PM PDT

    •  Don't trust the polls

      trust your gut James.

      by TustonDAZ on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 07:17:09 PM PDT

•  The Hail Mary play & Wag the dog

  Lots of Stars & Stripes on television, a lot of gripping pictures of US firepower, macho language...

  I'd put my money on Friday or Saturday. Perfect timing, because the Pentagon won't have to release the casualties before start of business Monday, and they'll fudge it until it's not important anymore... Tuesday 8 p.m.

  They must be really desperate.

  by ClaudeB on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 04:45:15 PM PDT

•  1 Million Plus Voters a Day

  I estimate (very roughly) that over 1 million and perhaps as many as 2 million voters have been and will be voting each day over the last two weeks before Election Day.  Anyone who holds their ammo until the last day is missing out on influencing a whole lot of voters.

  by CADem on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 04:47:47 PM PDT

•  I think...

  that the original CW pointing to an attack after the election still holds. IMHO an attack now is too risky politically for the Dork. I think that he wants to "play down" Iraq as much as he can.

  by John Masotti on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 05:02:31 PM PDT

•  Will the

  Afghan national army be taking care of this one too?

  by Aexia on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 05:09:37 PM PDT

•  So taking Fallujah will stop the insurgency?

  Uh... okay.

  Jesus this is gonna backfire.  Maybe not on Bush's election chances, but on the troops on the ground.  There are 8,000 well-trained Pakistanis headed there now and who the hell knows what else.  This will INFLAME the entire Middle East.

  I also predicted Zarqawi as the October Surprise.  They have been setting it up for weeks, finally having him "issue a statement" last week that he is now allied with AQ.

  Inoculation is in order.  Theresa should say they are holding Zarqawi.

  by reef the dog on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 05:16:36 PM PDT

  •  I wouldnt put it past Bush

    to sense he will lose and just stir the crap out of the area like a stick in a hornets nest.

    just to fuck with kerry....

    by free speech zone on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 05:28:26 PM PDT

•  Let's put this in perspective...

  According to The Iraq Body Count Website the last siege of Falluja (April 2004) resulted in the death of approximately 800 Iraqis.  Between 572 and 616 of these were civilians of whom about 300 were women and children.

  How many will die this time?

  by DoDi on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 06:19:26 PM PDT

•  December 11 Mass March against the War

  A mass march against the war, in particular in response to the significant grave danger of an escalation of the war, to take place in Washingon DC and in Los Angeles, Calif.

  December 11 would be an excellent date to have it and John Kerry should be invited as a keynote speaker.

  Shall we?

  by DoDi on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 07:07:47 PM PDT