ABC+Drudge=October Surprise?

With all the "chatter" for the last couple of months it comes as no suprise that Rove is using threats of terrorism to try to woo the undecided voters Bush's way. Yahoo

By Steve Gorman

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) -  ABC News has asked U.S. security officials to examine a videotape it obtained in Pakistan of an English-speaking man threatening a massive attack on the United States, the network said on Wednesday.  

Sources familiar with the tape -- the authenticity of which U.S. intelligence officials have not been unable to verify -- said the man, who claims to be a U.S. native and al Qaeda supporter, warns that the "streets will run with blood."  

The video appears to have been made as recently as late summer because the speaker discusses the Darfur conflict in Sudan, makes a reference to the Massachusetts same-sex marriage legislation and mentions the Sept. 11 Commission, one U.S. intelligence official told Reuters.

Sure sounds like a case of Rove bugging his own office again...

The first disclosure of the tape by Internet columnist Matt Drudge prompted ABC to publicly acknowledge the video's existence before knowing whether it was real or fake.  

Asked about the tape at a campaign stop with President Bush (news - web sites) in Ohio, White House spokesman Scott McClellan told reporters, "The intelligence community is analyzing it, working to verify its authenticity."  

 A source familiar with the tape told Reuters the hourlong video features a man, whose face is concealed by a headdress, warning that a coming attack on the United States would dwarf the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, which killed nearly 3,000 people.  

According to the source, the man says, "The streets will run with blood" and says the United States has brought this on itself for electing a president who has declared war on Islam by attacking the former Taliban rulers in Afghanistan (news - web sites) and waging war against al Qaeda.  

The source said linguistic experts believe the man, who identifies himself as "Assam the American," learned English at a young age but is not a native English speaker.  

 A U.S. intelligence official said the man claims to be originally from America and speaks fluent English with a slight accent. "We don't have a positive ID of the speaker, who was shrouded and wearing dark glasses," the official said. "The intelligence community does not have information linking the video to a specific threat."  

  The official said the tape was "classic al Qaeda propaganda," but seems to have been "sliced and diced." The speaker refers to al Qaeda leaders Osama bin Laden (news - web sites) and Ayman al-Zawahri as "our leaders" and praises the Sept. 11 attacks.  

Classic al Qaeda propaganda? More like classic Rove propaganda.

•  About 6 diaries on this today

  by TNforkerry on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 06:43:59 PM PDT

  •  My bad

    I checked in a few times today and never saw one. The story on Yahoo was from only a little more than an hour ago and with none in the last 40 diaries I figured I was safe.

    by Joe Willy on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 06:49:46 PM PDT

  •  GOTV!

    First I've seen it.  I'd be thinking more how they might use this, escalate it, or something similar, just to create disorder.  That seems to be their mode and the only thing they are capable of doing (template, Iraq).  I've thought they might have a plan to disrupt certain selective cities with high Dem vote, to turn a few states.  (Think of L.A.'s  freeways all tied up with panicked parents, having to choose between picking up their kids and voting.)  I don't think these releases and "alerts" are at all benign.  (A schools alert some weeks ago--totally bogus.)

    I sure hope Bush, Inc., and the Terminator have a plan to protect our voting rights.

    Isn't it time to start BLAMING this gathering election chaos on Bush and the Repug Congress?  What the hell was all that money for the Help America Vote Act done for us?

    GOTV!

    by PeacePatriot on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 06:58:27 PM PDT

•  Despite the fact my diary was a dud

  I still think this is possible

  Is a Major Terrorist Attack Inevitable

  Call me paranoid, but I'm about to float a theory as to what to expect for the much vaunted "October Surprise".  If you think about it, they have been setting us up for this scenario for a long time.

  Sometime this weekend, the United States is going to thwart a major terrorist attack on U.S. soil.  It will probably be a major city, and will most likely involve some type of nuclear weapon.  It will be something big and it will be something scary.  The details will be very thorough as this has probably been in the works for a long time.

  Let's face it, Bush has built his entire reelection campaign on the theme that he can keep us safe and John Kerry cannot.  Unfortunately, recent (and not so recent) events do not back up this claim.  This week's revelation that tons of explosives have come up missing in Iraq certainly seem to belie the president's assertion that he can keep us safer. That story alone could be the thing that tips this election to John Kerry.

  Notice how quiet John Ashcroft and Tom Ridge have been lately?  There was much discussion here this summer how we should expect on and off again terrorist threat alerts as we approach the election, but suddenly nothing.  After a host of unsubstantiated reports of "credible threats", they've gone silent.  For two years Bush has been manipulating the news media with heightened levels of terrorist threats designed to manipulate our fears and insecurities. Why has this suddenly stopped?

  Since the bombing in Madrid on March 11, we have been hearing from this administration that the terrorist want to disrupt our presidential election.  Not only that, but they insist that the purpose of the bombing in Spain were designed to influence the outcome of that election and Spain's commitment to the war on terrorism.  The proof of this, they say, was the election of the left-wing government and the withdrawal of troops soon thereafter. And while most of us know that the results of the Spanish election had little to do with the actual act of terrorism itself, I think most Americans believe that Spain caved to the terrorists.

  Polls show that Americans are concerned that terrorists would like to disrupt our election.  But creating a belief in the inevitability of a disrupted election is not the only claim that this administration has made.  I think they have also successfully convinced Americans that terrorists would rather have Kerry as president, and any such attempt to disrupt our election would be to manipulate the results of the election so that Kerry was elected.

  Desperate times call for desperate measures, and it is pinch time for Bush.  This election is slipping away from him and unless he turns things around quickly he is going to be defeated by John Kerry.

  So there you go.  Some time between now and November 1st we will hear of a major terrorist attack on the United States being arrested.  There will not be enough time between the announcement and the election for Kerry to successfully address this.  I don't necessarily believe that this will cost Kerry the election, but it will certainly make it much harder.

  Feel free to tear my theory apart.  My apologies if this paranoia has been blogged already.

  by Manny on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 06:45:19 PM PDT

  •  I agree with you

    I've said all along that Dean called their bluff so they knew they had to lay low with the higher alerts. The last one during the Dem convention tested the waters and they pretty much got away with it so now they can lay one out in the last week of the race with no time for the media to ask questions. People in urban areas have to face roadblocks and other scary things that keep them from going out and voting. We've already read stories about more police patrols for the election despite absolutely no proof Al Qaeda has plans to disrupt the election!

    by Joe Willy on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 06:52:27 PM PDT

  •  Damn tin foil hat

    is getting tighter.

    by BartBoris on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 06:54:20 PM PDT

    •  A "4" for you

      for tracking me down and calling me a tin foiler again.

      by Manny on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 06:59:08 PM PDT

      •  You have to admit

        that after they were so incomptent that they could not even fake WMD in Iraq, the Rove as "all powerful evil mastermind" meme started to fall apart.

        All they know how to do is repeat rumors that John Ashcroft's summer intern from Wheaton read on the "internets" and then raise the "Terror Warning" color.

        They are way too inept to even attempt to  pull something like what you are talking about off effectively.

        However, the missing absentee ballots in FL does sound Rovian.

        by BartBoris on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 08:50:18 PM PDT

  •  Now you're thinking like Karl Rove!

    But honestly, even Rove doesn't want to land in jail.  And something of this magnitude would involved so many people.  Someone would (eventually) sing.  But I think the fear of jail is the only thing keeping this from happening.

    It would also stink to high heaven, so it seems to me that it would have be pulled off flawlessly (and flawless executions are, um, not something the Bushies are very good at).

    by BrentHartinger on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 06:55:32 PM PDT

    •  Agreed.

      Planning a fake attack and then thwarting it would seem to be highly unlikely, since thwarting it would necessarily mean killing or capturing (and then killing) someone.  I doubt anybody's going to sign up for that task.

      I'm afraid that planning a real attack is more likely than this stunt.

      by perspicio on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 07:05:32 PM PDT

      •  Especially

        when Kerry will be in control of the Justice Department in January.

        by BartBoris on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 08:51:33 PM PDT

•  I have to admit

  that when I heard about this tape, my first reaction was suspicion that this was Karl Rove's October surprise.  Here are my reasons:

  1.  Tape was given to ABC as an outlet for a warning instead of tried-and-true Al Jazeera.

  2.  Instead of the speech being done in Arabic, done by a near-perfect English speaker (though not too perfect) so linguists can determine that not a native-speaker.

  3.  Reference linking Osama bin Laden and al-Zawahri and referering to them both being  "our leaders".

  4.  Claim that attack is in retaliation for *"for electing a president who has declared war on Islam by attacking the former Taliban rulers in Afghanistan (news - web sites) and waging war against al Qaeda."  Why bother mentioning electing, when Bush was already president on 9/11?  If this was legitimate, wouldn't the emphasis on "allowing" Bush to declare war?

  5.  Story that ABC had tape broken by Drudge before ABC could finish their authentification process.

  6.  David Brooks was just on NPR saying that elections are influenced more by news events than ads and campaign visits.  Rough quote: This explosives story might be the one this year, or it might be something the press reports on "tomorrow."

  7.  All the previous drumbeat continually asserting that al Qaeda wants to influence our election and that they don't want Bush because they a) don't like him or b) are scared of him.

  8.  What better way to distract from the missing explosives story and general Iraq mess?

  9.  Nothing has to happen and the tape can be quietly revealed to be a fraud after the damage is done and the election is over.

  Okay, someone please, tell me I'm just being paranoid and shouldn't have seen Manchurian Candidate when it came out?

  by katerina on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 06:56:57 PM PDT

  •  Have a 4

    You nail it on the head when you mention Drudge and ABC and not Al Jazeera! And the fact this guy speaks English! Remember how we got the Kuwaiti princess or whatever she was to tell her sob story about Iraqis throwing babies out of incubators to get us into Gulf 1 and how that turned out to be total fiction- after the war. By bringing this out right before the election it maximizes effect and minimizes risk of having truth known before the election.

    And not that many people have to be involved to make one silly video and leak it to Drudge, what kind of excuse it that? Remember the dude in California who faked a video showing him beheaded by terrorists when he never left the country? It takes one guy to make a video and one willing accomplice in the media to throw it in the river and see where the current takes it.

    The timing is perfect to throw media off missing explosives story. The last few days have been horrible for Bush.

    by Joe Willy on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 07:07:36 PM PDT

    •  You seem so upset

      Is there anything that can be done to stop Bush from winning, or do you think this has cinched it for him?

      by JamesB3 on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 07:15:39 PM PDT

      •  I think/know we'll win

        ...but I am upset that people don't seem to see the big picture. If this becomes a big story tomorrow- it is, after all, a "new" Al Qaeda warning (the first "real" warning on any imminent attacks in recent months) then we need to be prepared to counter it with talking points and an e-mail campaign. Seems to me like it's an obvious fake, but I think we ought to expect the media to hype this tomorrow- especially is Bush mentions it. We all knew Rove would try something completely underhanded in the last days especially if his boy was in trouble... and he most certainly is.

        One of the things this site does best is to help congeal the thoughts of this movement's brightest minds and form a set of talking points that be carried to the media via e-mail campaigns and other efforts like the Sinclair boycotts. I think sometimes we get carried away but the canaries in the coal mine are important despite the slightly-more-frequent Chicken Littles that overreact to every little blip in the polls and every new Bush attack. However, I put this new video on a different level than other supposed "suprises" that have been popping up in every other diary for the past month. We're all jumpy because we all expect some last gasp from the dying dog that is the Bush campaign. We'll know whether to jump on this early tomorrow if the morning shows play it up or if Bush & Co. play it up. Then it's time to hit 'em hard. But let's get our thoughts in order tonight in case we need to attack this.

        by Joe Willy on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 07:38:29 PM PDT

  •  The Wayne Madsen scenario

    No, I don't think your being paranoid.  This might interest you:

    http://www.villagevoice.com/issues/0428/mondo7.php

    It's Wayne Madsen's scenario of a serious "terror alert" in the western states, aimed at capturing some big chunks of electoral votes in the event that the east coast does not go well for Bush.  If you could disrupt the L.A. freeway system, you could really shave off a lot of Dem votes.  And we have Schwarzenegger for Gov., and Democrat and anti-Diebold Kevin Shelley for Sec. of State-- who has been hit with some mysterious scandals that seem to be aimed at discrediting him (misuse of HAVA funds).  Could this have been deliberately designed for Swarz to overrule Shelley on an important election-terror alert issue (such as:  Is the CA vote okay if it is a partial vote?)?  

    Wouldn't surprise me at all.  Karl Rovianism writ large.  

    It certainly is indicative of our opinion of our government that we would be seriously considering it.  

    It seems like a lot of the pieces are falling into place (f.i., recent schools terror alert that turned out to be bogus--mind games on parents, re: choosing between picking up kids at school or voting).

    I hope some of the good guys, somewhere, have a plan for what to do, if they pull such a thing.  And I think, too, that we can only overcome it with moral force--with a huge Kerry mandate (GOTV!)--and persistence and steadfastness in reclaiming our democracy, whatever happens.  
    

    by PeacePatriot on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 07:46:22 PM PDT

  •  Off Topic

    Katerina:

    I can't find your email.  Hopefully, you'll get this.

    Here's a link to a Yahoo story to hit regardign the increase of unemployment claims:

    http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=716&e=7&u=/ap/20041028/ap_on_bi_go_ec_f i/economy

    by MRL on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 08:54:04 AM PDT

•  I'm not worried about raised terror alerts.

  I expect that.  I expect threats.

  What concerns me is that a real attack may take place before or during the election, leveraging enough support for W to win.  Given the rabid ideology of the far right, it isn't inconceivable that such an attack could be orchestrated from the inside.  War is, after all, an extension of politics.

  For that matter, I'm not sure how such things work, but it seems to me it could happen after the election and lead Bush to invoke martial law, effectively nullifying a Kerry victory.

  I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think we should ignore this possibility.

  by perspicio on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 07:01:01 PM PDT

•  Same sex marriage?

  The Islamofascist terrorist mentioned same sex marriage in massachusetts?????

  How gullible do they think we are? Islamofascists are coming after us because of gay marriage now?I'm surprised he didn't mention partial birth abortion and prayer in schools!

  I'm surprised the SCLM is still covering this. Hopefully they can get it debunked quickly.

  And no, I'm not expecting some lame ass terrorist arrest on US soil two days before the election. At some point, they have to just let this shit go.

  by Hrubec on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 07:04:17 PM PDT

  •  The media loves this stuff

    They want to believe that all of America sees same-sex marriage as evil and sinful. This is a major GOP talking point, that same-sex marriage "weakens" how we are viewed in the world, makes us more vulnerable. This tape will be used to confirm that, and to punish gays in every state.

    This couldn't have come at a better time for Rove. This is going to cause so many undecided voters or wary Kerry voters to jump towards Bush, out of fear that the terrorists will kill them otherwise.

    This is just disgusting. I don't see what Kerry can do to get past this. It's going to be THE issue going into Tuesday. So many will vote for Bush because of this. He's gone up in the polls every time terror hysteria begins. He's already about to have a lead in the WaPo poll and that will only grow thanks to this garbage. I can't believe that we could lose because of this.

    by JamesB3 on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 07:12:14 PM PDT

  •  we have to allow

    same sex marriage as part of the war on teror. We can't give in to the terrorists.

    by spitonmars on Wed Oct 27, 2004 at 07:13:30 PM PDT