Here's an update of the big Senate picture for those who don't follow the ups and downs of the various Senate contests obsessively. I'll do one more of these next Sunday or Monday. Here is
a link to last week's update.
We start with a Republican advantage of 51-48-1 (with the independent caucusing with Democrats). We need a net gain of two seats to take back the Senate. We can hold it 50-50 if Kerry wins, but it would necessitate the same sort of power-sharing agreement Daschle wrestled out of the GOP in 2000. And such an agreement would close down the Senate. It would be better to either hold the Senate outright, or not have it so Kerry can run against Senate Republican "obstructionists" in 2006 and 2008. (Though some of you disagree with that assessment.)
Here are the battleground Senate seats, ranked by chance of switch. Oh, and I don't do "toss-up", as I find it a sort of cop-out, like "50% chance of rain". Parenthesis marks last week's rankings.
This week's results would garner Democrats a +1 gain in the Senate.
1 (1) Illinois (R open seat)
The big question here is whether Democrat Barack Obama will get more than 75 percent of the vote. This one is so in the bag, as Republican carpetbagger Alan Keyes makes an ass out of himself, that Obama has spent more time campaigning for other candidates than himself.
Definite Dem pickup
2 (2) Georgia (D open seat):
While Denise Majette has showed some life as of late, this race will mark a switch from Republican-pretending-to-be-Democrat Zell Miller to a bona fide Republican.
Likely Rep pickup
3 (3) Colorado (R open seat):
Proven Colorado vote getter -- Democratic Attorney General Ken Salazar -- has held solid leads in polls against bad-beer maker Peter Coors. Coors has lots of money, and the NRSC is dumping a lot of cash into the state, so we can't put this one in our column just yet.
Leans Dem pickup
4 (4) South Carolina (D open seat):
Republican Jim DeMint still maintains leads against Democrat Inez Tenenbaum in this very Republican state. The DSCC has done a great job of keeping this race close, but it may not be enough to defeat demographics. Last week, I wrote that Inez had the momentum. This week, the polls are split. A SUSA poll has DeMint surging nine points, while a Mason-Dixon poll has Inez gaining 8 points to close within 47-43 within the last three weeks. A split decision, I'm still predicting a GOP pickup.
Leans Rep pickup
5 (7) North Carolina (D open seat):
Democrat Erskine Bowles held strong leads through most of the summer, but after enduring a barrage of negative ads from Richard Burr and the NRSC, that lead has evaporated into a dead heat.
Three polls released last week -- one by the DSCC, one by a Republican outfit, and one by Mason-Dixon all show the race tied or within a point. Another poll, by SUSA, suggests that Burr continues to increase his lead on Bowles. The aggregate of these polls suggests that Bowles has stopped the bleeding after several terrible weeks. Still, the momentum is on Burr's side, and I'm switching the outlook of this race for now.
Leans Rep pickup
6 (5) Oklahoma (R open seat):
Not only are the polls tight in this race, but they show a ridiculously large number of undecided voters. Whether the poll methodologies are to blame, or whether Oklahomans are truly conflicted about voting for a Democrat, this race will go down to the wire.
We really shouldn't be competitive in Oklahoma, but we have a hell of a candidate in Brad Carson, and they have a candidate from hell in Tom Coburn. It'll be tight, but I think we pull out a victory by the barest of margins.
Leans Dem pickup
7 (6) Alaska (R incumbent):
Another state where Dems shouldn't be competitive. But we have a super candidate in former governor Tony Knowles. The incumbent is Republican Lisa Murkowski, who was appointed to the seat by her daddy when he moved in to the governor's mansion. Her father's short tenure as governor hasn't been smooth sailing, while the nepotism issue has haunted Lisa from day one. Meanwhile, Knowles has run the perfect, error-free campaign.
The good news -- Knowles has never trailed in the only independent polling in the race. The bad news, he has never led by more than four points. Even in DSCC polling, Knowles can only muster a four point lead (48-44) in the latest numbers.
Leans Dem pickup
8 (8) Kentucky (R incumbent):
This race shouldn't be on the radar screen, but Republican incumbent Jum Bunning is literally falling apart. His erratic and bizarre behavior has raised alarm bells in the state's media, and the beneficiary has been Democratic long-shot Dan Mongiardo.
Bunning has done nothing in the past week to erase doubts about his fitness to serve. Mongiardo's polling has bunning at 44-43 -- well under the 50 percent incumbent line. A Courrier-Journal poll from last week had Bunning at 49-43, with the trends favoring Mongiardo. With a week left, Bunning needs to boost his numbers or he's getting a forced retirement. I've switched the outlook on this race.
Leans Dem pickup
9 (10) Louisiana (D open seat):
If we can get this race into a runoff, then it leans Democratic retention. However, the NRSC has been pushing hard for a first-round KO, and Louisiana Dems are sounding the alarm that Republican David Vitter may reach 50 percent next Tuesday.
The momentum is clearly in Vitter's campaign, as the two leading Democrats in the race train their firepower on each other. Tracking polls in the race will give us a better picture next Monday. And we'll have a really good picture on Tuesday evening.
Leans Rep pickup
10 (9) South Dakota (D incumbent):
The polls indicate a tight race, with partisan polls giving their guy each the lead. A Mason-Dixon poll last week gave Daschle a narrow 49-47 lead.
Dascle is the only Democratic incumbent in any danger this cycle, but Daschle has weathered many a close race as a Democrat in this solidly Red state. And SD Democrats have proven they can win, given their hold on the state's two Senate seats and the at-large House seat. Those victories are never easy, however.
Leans Dem retention.
11 (11) Florida (D open seat):
Four of the five non-partisan polls last week had the race exactly tied. Not stastically tied, but exactly tied. The fifth gave Democrat Betty Castor a narrow lead.
But given that a week ago Martinez led (narrowly) in most polls, the momentum is clearly swinging in Castor's direction. And given the state's strong Democratic GOTV effort and seeming late-break for Kerry, we should be able to retain this seat.
Leans Dem retention