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We've got 'em registered.
It turns out that well over half of new voters registered in Ohio at last count - about 475,000 of about 830,000 - hail from just eight urban counties: Cuyahoga, Franklin, Hamilton, Montgomery, Summit, Lucas, Lorain and Stark. They make up nearly 6 percent of the entire 7.8 million-plus statewide electorate, at a time when the latest polls show President Bush and Democrat John Kerry running neck-and-neck.

New registrations are still being counted, and everyone cautions that votes - not registrations - will decide the election. But signs of a heavy surge of new urban voters could add up to immense pull for Democrat-leaning central cities on Election Day [...]

Republicans maintain that new registrations in growing Republican counties will blunt the impact of new urban voters. But among the urban counties thick with new voters, all but two swung to Democrat Al Gore in the 2000 presidential election. Stark and Hamilton counties both went to President Bush in that race, but Democrats in both say the vast majority of new registrations there have been in Democrat-leaning urban precincts.

Now we've got to get them to the polls.

GOTV!

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 07:53 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  And once they're at the polls (none)
    We have to make sure they can vote. GOTL (Get Out The Lawyers)
  •  Good god (none)
    I'm probably going to be waiting in line for 3 hours while on my 4 hour break from GOTV.
  •  Suppressing the vote (none)
    Of course, the other side has countermeasures:

    http://www.wkyc.com/news/news_fullstory.asp?id=25556

    Phony letters tell people they cannot vote

    Reported by Jeff Maynor
    POSTED: Thursday, October 28, 2004 6:30:26 PM
    UPDATED: Thursday, October 28, 2004 7:35:40 PM

    PAINESVILLE -- It is an outright case of election fraud in Lake County. Video: Letters investigated []

    The phony letter says newly registered voters signed up by the Kerry or Capri Cafaro campaigns or the NAACP, their registrations are illegal and they will not be able to vote.

    "That was not authorized by the Board of Elections, said Elections Director Jan Clair. "It was not mailed by the Lake County Board of Elections."

    A real board mailing would have Clair's signature.

    The letter was brought to election officials by Ron Colvin, a longtime registered voter and head of the Lake County NAACP.

    Sheriff Dan Dunlap is investigating. "It will be a federal offense because you have

    interfered with the constitutionally protected right to vote," he said.

    Congressional candidate Capri Cafaro says she's sure the letter came from the other side. "So it seems to me the Republicans will stop at nothing to win and this is just another voter suppression tactic," she said. "I believe it came from someone with significant political motivation."

    In a race where the mud's been flying, Cafaro's opponent, Steve LaTorette, decided to sit this one out and said he would have no comment on her charges.

    Whether it was Republicans, or Democrats wanting to make it look like Republicans, or some guy sitting in his pajamas at his home computer, the sheriff says from now to Election Day, ignore any message that tells you not to come out and vote.

    •  uh, huh, (none)
        "Democrats making it look like Republicans."Oh yeah, we're wily that way.  We like to engage in voter suppression just so we get the chance to sic our lawyers on them later in protracted bitter legal battles, because that's so much better than just letting people vote.  Geez.  I suppose that's the "balance" of the reporting?

      American military intervention is like American cinema. Really high production values, but the script sucks.

      by jibeaux on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 07:57:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  larry sabato and frank luntz (4.00)
    Both sabato and luntz were on fox today and didn't look too happy.Both pretty much were conceding ohio to kerry.
  •  vote absentee if you still can (none)
    so that one spot can be taken by someone else in the polling line. i did it.
  •  It's not even gonna (4.00)
    be close is it?

    "Do what you can, with what you have, where you are." - Theodore Roosevelt

    by Andrew C White on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 07:58:23 PM PDT

  •  Weather (none)
    Bush -- the luckiest man on earth -- could be helped by rain in the northeast Tuesday.  Of all freaking things ... I want NOTHING to interfere with our GOTV.  
  •  Anyone have a nice county map of Ohio? (none)

    "You can't talk to the ignorant about lies, since they have no criteria." --Ezra Pound

    by machopicasso on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 08:04:58 PM PDT

  •  they should be trumpeting these numbers (none)
    to anyone who will listen...regarding civilian fatalities in Iraq:
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,1338749,00.html
  •  Now I see why we're heading to Youngstown. (none)
    "The key to [Kerry] winning Ohio is if they can turn out Northeast Ohio voters, they feel they can offset the part of the state they're not as strong in," Dimora said. "All the large, urban cities was their key focus."

    GOTV!!!

    "You can't talk to the ignorant about lies, since they have no criteria." --Ezra Pound

    by machopicasso on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 08:08:17 PM PDT

    •  Isnt Dennis Kucinch (none)
      very popular in NE Ohio. He should be campaigning there or getting that NE OH machine.
      •  dunno (none)
        he's actually got a challenger this year, and I see a lot of their yard signs. The peedee was merciless during his run for potus, and I'm sure he lost some votes when he flip flopped for pro-choice when he ran for potus.

        So my guess he ain't as safe as he once was....but will probably still win handily. How much mojo he's got for Jk I don't know.

        Interesting quote from county chairman DiMora...don't know what's up his ass, but he's been invisible as far as supporting JK goes...I don't think he's attended a single jk event.

  •  What Ohio means to us (4.00)
    Were we to win Ohio, we could lose Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa, Arkansas, West Virginia, and Florida ... and still win the election.
    •  True, but- (3.00)
      The one consipcuous absence off your list is Wisconsin.  As long as we get Ohio - and we will - Wisconsin is the key to the entire ball game.  If we win it, Bush is probably cooked.  If we lose it, we have to steal a state we're currently behind in.

      If we win Florida and lose Ohio, of course (unlikely) I think we win, WI or not.

  •  anxious and ready (none)
    I'm actually going to be a poll watcher in cleveland... i can't wait, i can't wait, i can't wait!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  •  We're On It! (4.00)
    I just returned from a MoveOn LNVB meeting and that was the theme: "now we've got to get them to the polls."  

    We learned that while we assume our suburb, Cleveland Heights, would have a huge turnout because it's probably the most progressive, activist city in Ohio, actual turnout in 2000 was only 56% of registered voters (44% of eligibles).  Not this year!  Cleveland Heights is 85% Democrat/Independent, and we are going to make sure more get to the polls than ever before.

    The MoveOn organizers tell us that in addition to the hundreds of local volunteers, CLeveland has been inundated with out-of-state volunteers who will be working on GOTV.  

    And I just got an email from the Kerry campaign -- JK and the Boss are going to be in Cleveland Monday at 6 pm.  It's great they've chosen Cleveland for the grand finale -- they recognize how important this city will be for the election.  And WE WILL NOT LET THEM DOWN!!!!!

    •  Cleveland Rocks (none)
      I am very happy that The Boss and The Man are wrapping up the campaign in my beloved home town.

      Clevelanders are acutely aware, and not a little resentful, of the way the city is regularly dissed by the Big Shots.  Example:  The Rock and Roll Hall of Fame is there, but they hold their ceremonies and parties elsewhere.  

      People who pay attention to Cleveland, and show some love and respect, are rewarded with an almost unbreakable loyalty.

    •  Cleveland Heights (none)
      Hey, what neighborhood? I live near the library. I'm working for ACT on Tuesday, they tell me I'm helping the out of town canvassers get around.

      We are so going to win Ohio.

  •  Additional help (none)
    Yea, it would be great if someone showed up at some of the Ohio Precincts where they are trying to slow things down with a truck full of folding chairs, blankets, umbrellas, bottles of water and perhaps someone with a guitar or banjo to lead some singing.  No political songs mind you -- but the kind of songs that make you want to stick to your mission.  
    •  screw the cots... (none)
      Man, that's why we lose, we take things lying down. If the goopers start this challenge crap at the polls, the best way to deal with it is some very, very unfriendly persuasion.

      Cots? Ya, like working people can lay around for 12 hours.

      Jeebus, maybe we can gather in a circle and sing koom-by-ya.

  •  After reading this thread (none)
    I am so happy to be living in Oregon where everybody gets their ballots via mail, and we can either mail them back, or drop them at official ballot sites.  About 40% of Oregon voters have already submitted their ballots.  It really saves a tremendous amount of time.  There are occasions when I miss the palpable excitement of actually going to a voting booth and seeing all my fellow voters exercising their rights, but the convenience factor then wins over....

    Bush's October surprise...the rapture

    by peckcheck on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 08:16:45 PM PDT

  •  NEO (none)
    We got Big John's back in Akron.  Fuck the bastards.  It's ours.
  •  sort of on topic (none)
    I am registered to vote in Franklin Co. Ohio.  I know because I checked that I am still registered there.  However, I have moved to another state and registered and voted here.  It seems to me that situations like this drive up the % of people who are registered and don't vote.

    Another example is a friend of mine (also in Franklin Co.) who is moving on Nov. 1st to a new house.  She can't vote in her old place because she isn't a resident there and couldn't register in the new place because she wasn't a resident there at the time registrations were due.  Supposedly, she can vote provisional but I am skeptical if any of those ballots will get counted the way things are going.  The whole system in Ohio sucks.

    In the struggle against evil, there is no shame in defeat -- only in not fighting. -Tolkien

    by Sedge on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 08:23:30 PM PDT

    •  Easy (none)
      Why even ask us to agonize over this. Ask your friend to postpone her move for a day. Instead of moving out on the 1st, she can move out on the 2d after she votes. Now go help her do it.

      Iraq is deja vu all over again.

      by chuco35 on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 11:43:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Oh for god's sake (none)
      Don't let her be such a damn girl scout about this. She needs to go to whatever polling place she's registered in and just vote. If she has already changed her address on her license, just tell her to stick a couple of previous utility bills in her pocket in case she has to show any ID. One day is not going to get her disqualified from voting or arrested. GET HER TO THE POLLS!
  •  Lol (none)
    not just good, but gooood. :)
  •  YAY for Stark County Registrations! (none)
    That's where our own Jeff Seemann is taking on the old fossil!

    Visualize thousands of new first-time voters registered in the Democratic sections of Canton, the bellweather's bellweather!

    Visualize Seemann winning, and thanking Daily Kos in his victory speech--possibly THE candidate who, if he wins, can most accurately say, "I couldn't have done it without you."

    Visualize having someone in Congress who represents US!

    Go Jeff! We're right behind ya!

    "And I would've got away with it...if it wasn't for that meddling Kos!" --George W. Bush, 11/3/04

    by AdmiralNaismith on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 08:34:42 PM PDT

    •  We Have Arrived in Stark County (none)
      Two lawyers, no waiting.  Ensconced in our digs until Election Day, I am ready to rumble.  The late news here was all about voter suppression, including the mess caused by GOP challenges as well as the fake "Lake County Board of Election" letters.  People who appeared to respond to challenges were really pissed--and with good reason.  I can't sleep, but my husband is sleeping like a baby.

      First thing, lawyer time (say 9:00 am), we will be at Jeff Seemann's headquarters looking for work.  

  •  ACT has been at it for more than a year... (none)
    ...in the central region (Columbus / Franklin County) and other parts of the state.  The registration numbers are real, and not just in high DPI areas.  We did quite a bit of targeted work to ID and repeatedly contact Dems in more rural areas where you might not expect to find them.  And the GOTV operation is in overdrive to turn out every last voter.

    We will deliver Ohio.

  •  Ohioan From 1950's Till Y2K (none)
    Cuyahoga, Summit, Stark--in the NE, one time manufacturing hotbeds. Mom's family worked for Republic Steel in Stark; I think Canton's Timken bearing co is in Stark too, the one that laid off workers after Bush visited and touted the co. Lorain with auto mfr west-central along the lake shore also lots of blue collar.

    This region was "Best Location in the Nation" in the 50's and 60's with most of the lucrative N American market within a day's ride. I used to watch the Navy blimps flying out of Akron's Airship Dock, once rubber capital of the world. Lots of one time union work, everybody was working their way upward in those days--it should be ripe for the Democratic party.

    Franklin is central Ohio, Columbus w/ Ohio State University, insurance, banking, science, has been pretty republican w/ surrounding areas scary-Republican. Hamilton in the SW (Cincinnati) has been Republican too. If you can add the dem percentages in those two areas then combined with the NE especially Cuya, the state can definitely go blue.

    When I left people were saying the state Democratic party was almost nonfunctional. This year is exciting to watch. I can't go to help but friends are active and some are doing GOTV and poll watching.

    Go Bucks--BUT GO BLUE!!

    We are called to speak for the weak, for the voiceless, for victims of our nation and for those it calls enemy....--ML King, "Beyond Vietnam"

    by Gooserock on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 08:44:45 PM PDT

    •  the R party has gotten (none)
      in serious trouble recently. they have serious disagreements within the party over taxes and Issue 1 (gay-bashing amendment). they also have serious campaign finance problems, and while the dems wont take the statehouse this year, they should be able to turn the state for kerry. im still scared of anti turnout tricks though. im in college in NY, so i cant help out on the ground, which pisses me off. GOTV
  •  And what I saw at the Plain Dealer link (none)
    to this story was the Blogpac ad with US Rep. Tim Ryan (Ohio) kicking ass on the floor of the House of Representatives. It was a two-fer!
  •  Big Turnout In Montgomery Co. (Dayton) (none)
          Dayton  and Montgomery Co. Dems and  associated groups have been incredibly active. MoveOn's canvassing will have shown to be particularly effective. This area has lost mucho union jobs over the years and many "Reagan Democrats" will vote for Kerry.

       The GOP may try to pull a "Florida" here if they can.

         I think Kerry wins pulling away.

    •  darn right (none)
      a friend of mine living in east dayton (i live in west) is one of just a few true blues in his neighborhood, but i think a lot of his neighbors will go for kerry this time because of the unions and the anger at bush's crap. many will still go rethug out of reagan-style disdain for government solutions, but they will be outnumbered by those who have become desperate for any solution, and are willing to try govt solutions for their lack of health care, lack of jobs, low wages, etc.
  •  I'm so impressed (none)
    I have to tell you guys, I am humbled after hearing some of you talk of what you are doing on the ground in OH. Unfortunately due to my job, school and living in Cali, it's hard to get out to battleground states, so I had to resort to donating large sums of money, but I am just incredibly impressed. We're going to win this thing, and all because of everybody who's worked their ass off.

    Mikhail Khaimov San Francisco, CA

    by Tsarrio on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 09:41:28 PM PDT

    •  Mikhail (none)
      Get in you car and drive to Reno.  DO IT.  You'll feel better about yourself for years to come.

      I spent last weekend in Las Vegas (flying in from Orange County). I did four "precinct walks" turning out Kerry Voters. Early voting started over a week ago, so even if you go on the weekend you're getting Kerry voters to the polls.

      If you aboslutely can't get to Reno, phone bank.

      We can turn Nevada blue......GO FOR IT.

  •  Yet another good link (none)
    ...from Josh Marshall on why and how this is going to be a mess:  http://www.newdonkey.com/2004/10/rove-mo.html
  •  Read this diary (none)
    by Al Girodano:

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/10/29/02734/205

    California Uber Alles

    by joeesha on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 10:05:38 PM PDT

  •  60,000 in Montgomery (none)
    these arent coming from vandalia, centerville, etc. (strongly rep. suburbs) they ARE coming from dayton and suburbs like kettering, trotwood, harrison township, and huber heights. Dayton and Twood will go very strongly dem, harrison weakly dem, while kett and hh are about even. i am a little worried, though, cuz the polls are gonna be delayed for hours at a time by rethug challengers. with or without reason, they will challenge voters in west dayton (almost entirely african american) for any or no reason. it is scary.  
  •  Absentee voting in Louisiana (none)
    Was huge.  Statewide increase of almost 50% (75,000 in 2000, 110,000+ in 2004) and in my parish (Ouachita) a 40% increase.

    We're pysched.

    Save the Louisiana 5th District from defector Rodney Alexander by sending money to challenger Tisa Blakes

    by blakescampaign on Fri Oct 29, 2004 at 12:16:05 AM PDT

  •  Poll Challengers (none)
    I think we will take Ohio IF our voters are allowed to vote.  I am sure most people here have read the NY Times story about the 3,600 GOP poll challengers.  Does anyone know how DEMS, or for that matter, election officials, will stop these challengers from going beyond their mandate and slowing down the vote?!

    I've read a lot about the problem.  What is our recourse?

    •  Kick them in the nuts... (none)
      ...usually works well.
    •  Blackwell did an advisory (none)
      If the poll judge thinks that anybody is trying to slow down the voting with unfounded challenges, the poll judge at each site has the right to immediately throw them out, with police assistance if necessary. I'm starting to think that the county BOEs are getting pissed about outsiders coming in and ruining their nice, orderly polls, so this could just work.
  •  LA-Senate: Several Polls (none)
    Here are the polls taken over the past few months for the Louisiana Senate Race.  Those who are panicking at the idea that David Vitter might actually get 50%+1 in first round might be reassured to see that in fact only one poll has ever put him over 50%, and it's the Verne Kennedy/MRI poll which is notorious for under-reporting black voters.  Also, it uses Registered Voters and not Likely Voters.  The Likely Voters polls range from 37-43 for Vitter.  Unfortunately, this listing does not even mention Arthur Morrell.  Also, PLEASE remember that this is a primary and that of course the only Republican should be in the 40s.  NO REPUBLICAN HAS EVER WON A LOUISIANA SENATE SEAT.

    Dang.  It didn't print the nice neat table.  Well, if you can read those numbers, they are in order--Vitter, Kennedy, John, Undecided or other.  The avg shows Vitter at 44.3, but the avg among likely voters is much lower.

    Senate Race            
    Poll | Date Sample Vitter
    (R)  Kennedy
    (D)  John
    (D)  Und Spread**
    RCP Avg | 10/12-25 - 44.3 15.3 16.0 17.5 Vitter -5.7
    MRI | 10/23-25 600 RV 51 17 15 - Vitter +1
    Renwick | 10/15-10/18 600 RV 39 18 15 9 Vitter -11
    Sthrn Media | 10/12-13 600 LV 43 11 18 26 Vitter -7
    POS (R) | 10/6-7,10 600 LV 43 14 17 - Vitter -7
    MRI | 10/4-10/7 600 RV 47 14 20 - Vitter -3
    GQR (D) | 9/20-23 - 44 18 24 - Vitter -6
    MRI | 8/31-9/2 600 RV 42 19 16 21 Vitter -8
    POS (R) | 8/10-12 1000 LV 35 16 18 29 Vitter -15
    GQR (D) | 8/9-15 600 LV 42 15 21 22 Vitter -8
    **Louisiana has an open field general election where one candidate needs to get over 50% of the vote otherwise there will be a run-off between the top two candidates. The spread lists the leading candidate's margin (plus or minus) in relation to reaching the 50% mark.

    Save the Louisiana 5th District from defector Rodney Alexander by sending money to challenger Tisa Blakes

    by blakescampaign on Fri Oct 29, 2004 at 02:09:03 AM PDT

  •  New Registration figures by affiliation Known? (none)
    I am in a fog, but last night while channel switiching, I thought I caught someone saying that Republican voter registration has gone up 25% and Democratic 250%. Although that would be great, it seems high (don't know if that was national or a state number. We have heard some numbers of individual states. Does anyone know stats from the big GOTV groups on actual increases per party/affiliation over the last 4 years? Is it even, slight advantage one way or the other, Hard to tell because of so many independents or unable to distinguish between address changes and new registrations?

    thanks

    •  That's the figure (none)
      that has been reported for quite some time.
    •  Ohio (none)
      In Ohio people do not register by party like they do in some states.  The only way that you become placed in a party is if you vote in that party's primary.  Obviously due to the Presidential race, people in Ohio were much more likely to vote in the Democratic primary since in March it wasn't 100% wrapped up and George Bush was running unopposed in the primary.  I don't think these figures necessarily tell  you that there are a lot more Democrats than before.

      In the struggle against evil, there is no shame in defeat -- only in not fighting. -Tolkien

      by Sedge on Fri Oct 29, 2004 at 07:16:59 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  check out vote voter supression on LeanLeft (none)
    "Voter Surpression Via Registered Mail"
    http://www.leanleft.com/archives/003791.html
  •  my wife leaves today for Ohio! (none)
    MoveOn chipped in to pay for Grassroots Campaign workers to get bused to Ohio for GOTV efforts. They'll be poll watching on Tuesday as well!!

    Rock the Election.

    i was just to stubborn to every be governed by enforced insanity ...

    by iSiS on Fri Oct 29, 2004 at 07:04:15 AM PDT

  •  I think our chances in FL > OH (none)
    Given how close the election was in FL, the demographics 2004 favoring Dems and the early polling results, I think I win FL by big margins (51-48).  Much of OH is still very conservative and although I think with our strong GOTV efforts we will win, but by very slim margins.  Hopefully the race will be won w/ or w/o OH so we won't have to endure a recount in OH.  I also feel that WI is in the bag for KE.  IA seems to be leaning BC, but our strong GOTV drive may win it for KE.  Early polling results in NM indicates an easy win for KE.  CA libs will over-run NV and get all the Dems to the polls.  I have a feeling CO and AR will go for KE.  NH, ME, MI, MN and definitely NJ are in the bag for KE.

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