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All the pieces are coming together.
According to the Herald poll, done by Zogby International, Kerry is positioned to win Miami-Dade by anywhere from 90,000 to 100,000 votes.

A margin that large in Florida's most populous county would be hard for Bush to make up across the rest of the state [...]

Overall, Hispanics -- both Cubans and non-Cubans -- still support Bush, according to the Herald poll, with 62 percent saying they will vote for the president and 35 percent saying they will vote for Kerry.

Nevertheless, that is a tremendous improvement for the Democrats over 2000, when 73 percent of Hispanics favored Bush and only 27 percent voted for Gore.

And almost all of those gains for Kerry have come from Mexicans, Salvadorans, Dominicans, Colombians and Puerto Ricans among others. Many of whom are going to be voting for the first time.

Part of the credit has to go to the New Democrat Network, which has aggressively targetted not just Latinos in Miami-Dade, but also the previously untouchable Cuban-American community.

Check it out -- my Guanaco peeps are going to be ringing it up for Kerry!

And speaking of NDN, this is the best ad ever. Thanks to NDN, Latinos have gotten better commercials this election cycle than any of the rest of the country. (My other favorite, check out the ad titled "Two Jobs.)

(A "Guanaco" is Salvadoran slang for "Salvadoran".)

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 08:28 PM PDT.

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Comment Preferences

  •  When Bush loses... (none)
    ..can we kick him?
    •  No. (none)
      I suppose you're kidding, but I think this is important.

      Think of it as a personal favor, if you will.

      We'll get our hands dirty but let's keep our souls clean.

      "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do?"
      -John Maynard Keynes

      by Dragonchild on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 08:44:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Just noogies (none)
      And perhaps a judicious pie throw.  No hurting anything but his pride.

      "And I would've got away with it...if it wasn't for that meddling Kos!" --George W. Bush, 11/3/04

      by AdmiralNaismith on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 09:06:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Kick him? (none)
      Honestly, these 'evil doers' should be mopping a prison floor and doing laundry shoulder-to-shoulder with Ken Lay. And don't forget the succubus Katherine Harris, and the devil's right hand man Antonin Scalia and his little pal Clarence Thomas.

      "These candidates make me want to vomit in terror" - Homer Simpson

      by Eggman on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 09:18:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'd like to (none)
      do this to him.  Or watch while the parents of soldiers killed in Iraq do it.  But we can't.  It would be wrong.

      Maybe we can get away with it if we only use effigies.

      We hold these truths to be self-evident . . .

      by LeftCoastTimm on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 10:08:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Watch what you say! (none)
        Seriously! Check out this LJ entry. Someone, don't read her LJ but she sounded young, posted a fantasy (?) of Dubya's end and wound up hosting Secret Service for tea.

        Don't be afraid to log off.

        by Debby on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 10:55:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Thanks (none)
          Only sort of proves my point of comparison.  I did say it would be wrong though, and I stand by that.

          We hold these truths to be self-evident . . .

          by LeftCoastTimm on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 11:32:47 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  What a wussie. (none)
          I read the first few paragraphs of that site before I almost threw up due to the overpowering smell of urine and soiled underwear.

          It's common knowledge that if you say the least threatening things in public about the president you get a SS visit.  Hell, if you even say anything remotely anti-bush anymore, you might get a visit...just watch F911 (gym guy).

          He seems to think his "FBI file" is some kind of huge deal.  I'm ex-military and guess what, we all get a file once we sign up for the service that follows us for the rest of our lives.  If I ever commit a crime, they have my prints, DNA, and medical/dental records to identify me in seconds.  So what? It's not criminal history. If you're law-abiding citizen you have nothing to worry about.

          He was acting like the mafia paid him a visit or some secret police assassins.  He should have some dignity and stand up for himself.  He didn't commit a crime so he had nothing to worry about.  I wonder if he's as frightened when a traffic cop pulls him over for going 5 over.

          Some people.

          •  I think (none)
            he is a she and I'm assuming she's young from what I know of the fandom audience and some other remarks she made. So kudos to you for your military service and your bravery but this is a kid who never expected this in a million years. And I think she handled it quite well--she wasn't shitting her pants, as you put it. And she did mention that the SS were quite friendly, not creepy.

            Don't be afraid to log off.

            by Debby on Fri Oct 29, 2004 at 02:36:57 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Nov 3rd if we win (none)
      I am going to lose it just about as bad as if we lost.. I have invested too much in this election.  I want to see that lame fu*king smirk leave his face.  I want to see him walk the walk of shame and spit on him while he does it.  I want him to have to face Daddy as a failure yet again..

      I suppose I am being childish, but I really hate Bush for what I feel he has done to this country.  I know we need to reach out to the other side, but for him I want pain..

  •  Daytona, here we come (4.00)
    Wife, baby and I are headed down from true-blue Rhode Island to Volusia County, Florida on the early flight Saturday.  72 hours of pure GOTV goodness.

    I'm bringing my video camera, too.  Frivolous Rethug challenges designed to slow down the line will be captured on tape.  And reported to the Florida hotline number: 1-800-WIN-FL04.

    Can't wait!

    •  Us Too! (none)
      My wife and I are coming from Texas to Orlando on the "corridor" for Kerry Campaign GOTV.  I suppose there are legions of others just like us.
      •  Good for you man (none)
        Good luck and fight the good fight!  You will have good stories for the grandchildren..
      •  Feel like Freedom Riders? You should. (none)
        What you guys are doing is every bit as important and significant as what true patriots like Goodman, Chaney, and Schwerner did during the 60s. At its most basic, it's the exact same work: helping ALL Americans who can, to vote, in areas hostile to that idea.

        Wish I could at this time. I will, one of these days, only I'll be down in Porter Goss-land my damnself. People that vote (as a county) 60% Republican need some science dropped on them, stat.

        Anyway, stay strong, and stay safe. You have our love and gratitude.

      •  Welcome (none)
        There's like a million of us already here, but we need a million more. Orlando and surrounding areas are being swamped with volunteers for K/E, but also for downticket races (Martinez is a lunatic, so we need to keep him out of the senate), so all the help is needed.

        Florida is Kerry country, but with Jeb in charge, you know you're in trouble.

        How many days to go? 4


        Republicans best friend is ignorance.

        by Jonesyboy on Fri Oct 29, 2004 at 04:34:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Don't use any cameras (none)
      You'll scare off our voters!

      It's a classic and time-tried voter-suppression technique.  DON'T DO IT!

  •  Don't let up on the congress (none)
    Don't forget, this began with the presidency but it doesn't end there, the right-wing spin machine and dominance of this government must be defeated.  These lying bastards must be stood up to.  And the democratic party itself must be reshaped from the ground up to root out all demons.
  •  More hispanic slang (3.50)
    Tico -Costa Rican.
    Boricua - Puerto Ricsn.
    Asshole - Cuban.

    I'm Cuban, and an asshole, so I get to say that.

    It's time to reject a President that says to the American people 'Ignore my record, forget my failures and fear the future.' - Kerry Campaign

    by Armando on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 08:31:16 PM PDT

  •  I phone banked Florida today (none)

    We were calling Kerry supporters only - I'd say 60% of the people I spoke to are elderly and have already voted.  More early voting than absentee.  The long lines haven't scared them away!  The vote is getting out.  Of course, keep the pressure on to seal the deal, because who knows how many of these won't be counted.
    •  Vote Suppression (none)
      Apparently Karl Rove has not read "The Emerging Democratic Majority" by Ruy Teixeira and John Judis.  The GOP's devious vote-suppression tactics are certain to further alienate minority citizens, whose numbers are rapidly increasing relative to the populus at large.   The GOP is likely to both lose this election AND insure that they will lose that critical voting bloc forever.  Dumb asses.
      •  Uh, I think their plan (none)
        is for "voting blocks" to be about as relevant as 8-track tapes.

        Losing voters doesn't matter if you don't plan on letting any vote again.

        Choose your enemies wisely -- for they are the ones you will imitate most.

        by Pesto on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 08:46:45 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  What safeguards exist to prevent... (none)
      the state officials from seeing the running early vote tallies, do you know? Because if it were possible to see them, any recipient of that information could make effective use of the info, even using just purely legitimate actions.
  •  Great Ad (none)
    Kos, agreed.  It's a great ad.

    I've been a pretty frequent volunteer here in AZ for the Democratic Party.  Took Monday and Tuesday off, I'll be busting hump for Big John all weekend.

    40, Fat, bald and old enough to know better.

    by WussGawd on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 08:32:35 PM PDT

  •  The Only Espanol (none)
    I want to hear from Little Jorge is "No mas!"

    Canada - where a pack of smokes is ten bucks and a heart transplant is free.

    by dpc on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 08:33:27 PM PDT

  •  Math is Fun (none)
    According to my Russert brand wipe board, if Kerry wins Florida and either Ohio and Pennsylvania, I get to go to an Inaugural Ball in January.

    And I don't mean for Bush.
  •  And let's not forget... (none)
    ...the Arab-American vote.

    Arab American Voters in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida Favor Kerry 2 to 1
    Arab American Institute, October 28, 2004

    For Immediate Release: Washington- With only one week remaining before the presidential elections, the Arab American Institute released the results of the final pre-election poll of Arab American voters in the battleground states of Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. The poll of 500 Arab American voters, conducted October 19-21 by Zogby International, is the fifth in the series. Earlier polls were conducted in February, April, July, and September 2004. The poll has a margin of error of ± 4.5%.


    Kerry Lead Over Bush Almost 2 to 1 Based on analysis of the data, it appears that on election day Senator Kerry will receive about 60% of the Arab American vote. President Bush will be the choice of about 33%, with Ralph Nader and others receiving 7%. Overall, when compared with the results from 2000, these 2004 numbers represent a net shift of between 190,000 to 200,000 votes in the direction of the Democratic candidate in these four states.

    Arab Americans appear to have greater confidence in Senator Kerry's ability to handle all of the issues covered in the poll. His ratings grew in every area and he is now favored 2 to 1 over the President in handling the economy, health care, foreign policy, and civil liberties. Kerry has also pulled ahead of the President in the estimate of Arab American voters of his ability to deal with terrorism/national security and taxes, two issues long held to be Bush's strong suits.

  •  Great ad! (none)
    I'm making those tough final decisions for the last $50 I can afford this election, and this ad just got half of it.

    [Turkee here]

    Little help from the gallery --

    Mongiardo, Morrison, Daschle, Tannenbaum, or Castor, Bean, or Keever?

  •  Get on the bus... (none)
    In response to the buses to the polls after Dem rallies in FL the NyTimes quotes a GOP op:

    "William R. Scherer, a Fort Lauderdale lawyer working for the Republicans, said that his party had no need for such stunts. 'We don't need to bus,' he said. 'Most of our people have cars.'"

    I'm afraid we may be looking at another case of blind R. arrogance.  

    So, let's give 'em a Hispanic AND Public Transportation surprise

  •  daily show - zogby predicts winner!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (none)
  •  Buenisimo! (none)
    I wish there was an English equivalent.

    We are at a fork on the road, one way leads to peace, prosperity and freedom, the other to unending war, massive deficits, crony capitalism and dictatorship.

    by Shockwave on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 08:38:51 PM PDT

  •  Senor Bush (none)
    El diablo con dinero.
  •  That Ad is INCREDIBLE! (none)
    Man oh man, does that kick Dubya's ass! Oh Yeah!

    "George W. Bush is not only the worst president in American history, he is the worst man who has been President."--J. Miller

    by Yosef 52 on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 08:41:41 PM PDT

  •  Macanudo (none)
    or, in Castilian, putamadre.

    Que vivan los hispanos!

    American military intervention is like American cinema. Really high production values, but the script sucks.

    by jibeaux on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 08:43:20 PM PDT

  •  You're right; best commercial ever. (none)
    Although, I'd like to see the Bollywood version before committing myself.  You know, costumes, singing, dancing, exotic hand gestures.  I think the format lends itself to a beware of Bush message.
  •  FYI (none)
    Gore: 328,867
    Bush: 289,574
    Diff:  39,293

    Computers are useless. They can only give you answers. - Pablo Picasso

    by PBJ Diddy on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 08:45:54 PM PDT

  •  Meanwhile, up the coast, in Georgia... (none)
    ...Hispanics are being disenfranchised. American Street points to an AP story about challenges to Hispanic voters.

    Ninety-five Hispanic voters in Atkinson County were summoned to a courthouse hearing Thursday to defend their right to vote after a complaint alleged a county commissioner attempted to register non-U.S. citizens.

    Now a voting challenge that some call a political vendetta has forced 78 percent of the rural county's registered Hispanics to defend their citizenship or their ballots won't be counted in next week's elections.

    The American Civil Liberties Union has gotten involved because three local men who filed the complaint selected the voters by asking the Board of Registrars for a list of all Hispanics registered in the county.

    "There's a definite concern we have that this sort of action has the purpose or will have the effect of deterring people who are Hispanic from voting," said Gerald Weber, legal director for the ACLU of Georgia. "Some of the folks on that list were born and raised in the United States."

    !Pues, ahí la tenéis, amigos míos: La verdadera historia de la partida Republicana...!

    •  Tell me that shit is illegal! (none)
      Wait, so you can just challenge anyone's right to vote based on merely having their name? The challenger doesn't need a reason?

      Not that we should stoop to their level - especially because if there's any justice in the world, that shit is illegal - but I wonder if Karl Rove would be amused if someone challenged his voter registration and made him go prove it.

      In other, totally unrelated news, the DOJ announced that they are going to have people watching polls for civil rights violations. I'm not sure if they're supposed to be discouraging them, or encouraging them.

      •  Was it based on their names? (none)
        If that's all it was - then it's bullshit.  No different than singling out Jewish names on a list.  But maybe it's not as bad... maybe they just summoned whoever indicated that they were Hispanic on the voter registration form.

        As in, what ethnicity/background are you?  Then they have the choices.  Being Hispanic myself but in California, I will be putting "other" next time to avoid any of this crap!

        John Kerry: strong leadership that can calm the waters of a troubled world.

        by diplomatic on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 09:12:40 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Since when (none)
          are you required to put one's religion or ethnicity on a voter registration form?

          That would be VERY illegal.

          •  Who said required? (none)
            I never said required.  Most forms do have the OPTION to put this information.

            Here in California it has a section where you can state your ethnic background.  I chose to state mine.  Other than that, I made no other statement that should lead you to believe I said it was required.

            In fact I don't even know what's happening over there in Georgia that is why I asked exactly how was it they were singled out?

            And I don't even know why you brought up religion when I didn't mention that at all.

            John Kerry: strong leadership that can calm the waters of a troubled world.

            by diplomatic on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 10:12:06 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Not at all illegal (none)
            In fact the federal government requires that Voting Rights Act states (those with histories of discrimination) record the race on the Voter Registration form.  The purpose is to track any racial discrimination in voter registration, and to measure progress in that area.

            It's not "illegal" at all; it's the law in some states.

      •  Well we know that anyone (none)
        can challenge your right to vote in Ohio and Georgia. Is there anywhere else this shit is allowed? Not so in Texas. Only the county voter registrar can challenge your qualifications. And no one can fuck with you when you're voting, except for the election judge, once you're within 200 feet of the ballot boxes. This keeps the Rgoons away from our voters and within our clutches. Can the Rgoons challenge voters at the polling places in any states?

        Iraq is deja vu all over again.

        by chuco35 on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 09:59:23 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Crime: VWC (none)
      Voting While Colored.

      No mas

      O it is excellent to have a giant's strength; but it is tyrannous To use it like a giant--Shakespeare, Measure for Measure, Act II

      by ogre on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 10:11:53 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Hey, that's great... (none)
    Just a thought - we do have people who are going to be monitoring the numbers that come in precinct-by-precinct, so we can tell if any of the electronic machines are fucked up or not (not to mention other problems), right?

    I'd like to believe that if Rove tries to add a big-ass random number of votes to the Florida total, it'll be pretty conspicuous, and we'll catch it...

    (I'd also like to believe we'd be more suspicious of disproportionate numbers of over-votes unlike last time - exactly how hard would it be for someone to either punch a hole in the Dem spot on a ballot with the Dem's name hand-written on it, or to write the Dem's name on a Dem-punched ballot? E.g., I want to vote for Kerry, and I punch the hole by his name, and some asshole writes, "John Kerry" in the presidential write-in line. Or vice versa - if the ballot isn't tamper-proof, it'd be easy to spoil a legitimate Kerry vote by emphasizing it.)

  •  Immigrant Votes (none)
    will change the nature of the political process in the near future in the US. Here is a perfect  example: the old Cuban American/Republican paradigm being swept away by the surge of newer immigrant voting blocs, even though Bush is getting more C-A votes than ever! Rendered irrelevant by the growing tide of immigration.
    •  Not all immigrant communites (none)
      are created equal.

      Also most new immigrants are not citizens/don't vote.

      John Kerry: strong leadership that can calm the waters of a troubled world.

      by diplomatic on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 10:16:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Immigrants May Not Vote, But Their Children Do... (none)
        There have been increasing numbers of immigrants providing children to an "electorate pipeline" over the past 30 years. Many 18 year old children of 'imigrados' have been streaming into the electorate over the past 10 years. Plus what's coming out of the immigrant "electorate pipeline" has reached critical mass, and will soon overwhelm the Rs in crucial states like TX, AZ, CO, NV and FL, and will keep CA and NJ safely D, not to mention IL and NY.

        Iraq is deja vu all over again.

        by chuco35 on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 11:24:35 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  No, but their kids will. (none)
        I'm looking at the long term. 2004 is the beginning of something, not the culmination.
    •  The new latinos in Florida... (none)
      ..are mostly Puerto Rican and they are technically not immigrants in the sense that many are just transplanted residents from other states such as New York (in NYC, PR population is declining as more and more move to the suburbs-- being replaced by Dominicans and Mexicans)

      It is helpful to Kerry however that the bulk of the new non-Cubans in Florida ARE Puerto Rican because being U.S. citizens, this provides for more eligible voters that traditionally have voted Democratic.

      Orlando is like the new San Juan and the Orlando Sentinel endorsement might prove to be more influential than anyone expects.

      John Kerry: strong leadership that can calm the waters of a troubled world.

      by diplomatic on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 11:39:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thats Good. (none)
        Thats another example of a change in voting trend because of immigration.

        I believe (and so do many others) that the non white population boom, followed by the inevitable trend toward increased interracial relationships are going to completely upend the social contract in the coming century. It is my great hope that someday, unfortunately not in our lifetime, the issue of race will simply dissolve in a grand mixture that the majority of people will no longer identify with "black" "white" "hispanic" "Asian" labelling.

        If we can somehow keep from blowing ourselves to oblivion, this trend may eventually engulf the entire world, and usher in the real Age of Aquarius.

        Just say no to Armageddon!

        I believe the recent tilt to conservatism is a direct reaction to these changing trends. I believe this movement to the right is only going to get more extreme over time as the population that identifies itself as white, middle class, becomes a smaller part of the pie. I believe we are already watching the extremist element come out of the closet and nakedly assert its political power in DC and the Red States.

        That this reaction is doomed to fail will only make it more extreme over time. I believe that we need to accelerate the process by electing Democrats whose policies will provide help to the new Americans and solidify them within the party now, so their children will be voting Democrat, and their grandchildren.

  •  Good, but other counties more important (none)
    Net Gore votes from the 16 counties Gore won in 2000

    Broward     209,821
    Palm Beach     116,790
    Miami-Dade     39,293
    Leon     22,371
    Pinellas     15,808
    Volusia     14,945
    Alachua     13,245
    St. Lucie     6,855
    Orange     5,705
    Gadsden     4,966
    Hernando     1,990
    Osceola     1,950
    Flagler     1,279
    Pasco     969
    Jefferson     563
    Monroe     424

    Bush won 51 counties with a total net of 457,511 votes. So even 100k out of Miami Dade wont be enough without big votes from Broward and Palm Beach

    •  yeah but... (none)
      do you really think that Kerry is going to do markedly worse than Gore in any of those counties?  the extra 50-70K in Miami-Dade would be huge... the question is where can Bush catch up
      •  Bush may do better in Palm Beach (none)
        bush has improved his numbers with Jewish voters and although he wont win them he can expect to do better...and thusly reduce the Palm Beach net for Kerry.

        Plus Bush will do better in the rural, northern and panhandle counties

        They key to Florida is the minority vote especially in Broward and Miami Dade.  If they all show up Kerry wins, if they dont Kerry loses

        •  Actually (none)
          according to that Herald poll Bush is doing WORSE with Jewish voters than he did in 2000... the Herald poll has them going 85% for Kerry..

          The only place Bush will gain in the Jewish vote will be among the ultra-Orthodox, but their votes will mainly be in New York, where they will do no harm.

        •  Jewish support non-story (none)
          This is the same bullshit we keep hearing from the media that tries to spice up the race. You know...Jewish voters are moving to Bush, African American, "security moms". It's all BS. Security moms are Republican mothers. African Americans will vote the same for Kerry as they did for Gore because they are not going to vote against their own best interests. And Jews in FL are retired folks. They have to worry about Israel AND Social Security.

          Mikhail Khaimov San Francisco, CA

          by Tsarrio on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 09:48:33 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I don't get that (none)
            Exactly where do they come up with this "worry" about Israel? Is it like Kerry's going to suddenly roll over and abandon Israel? Not gonna happen.

            None of my jewish friends don't really understand where the republicans are coming from with this crap. As if invading Iraq made Israel any safer.

            Kerry's hardly going to move the directon of US foreign policy THAT radically, but let's hope he does something.

            There's no need to worry about Israel. Anyway, they live in America. Not in Israel.

            Republicans best friend is ignorance.

            by Jonesyboy on Fri Oct 29, 2004 at 04:44:21 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  can Bush really do better in the rural panhandle (none)
          than he did in 2000?

          it's like trying to go from 60% support to 70% support....   maybe it's a turnout thing...

          •  NO...thanks to mother nature. (none)
            Remember the hurricanes pummelled the panhandle.  The GOP convention had no coverage for 1.5 mil Floridians without power for a week.  People weren't paying attention to the GOP's best 2 weeks of momentum thanks to the natural disasters.

            Not to mention, a lot of polling locations in the panhandle and other red counties got moved because they were wiped out or too damaged.  That ought to cause some confusion.

            I'm a Volusia voter.  Don't count out Palm Beach since its heavily jewish.  The only downside is that its extremely affluent so there's a lot of republicans as well.

        •  Yea um actually (none)
          No he is NOT doing better with Jewish voters according to some polls I've seen recently.

          That's just a myth.

          John Kerry: strong leadership that can calm the waters of a troubled world.

          by diplomatic on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 10:17:37 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  No (none)
          I raised that issue with my grandmother who lives in Palm Beach County.  I asked her if she's seen anybody in her community (all Jewish) who are ready to back Bush this year over Israel.  She said, "Absolutely not. I haven't heard or seen one person here voting for Bush. Kerry is strong on Israel too. Bush is an asshole and everybody knows it."   Incidentally she was very alarmed at the butterfly ballot last time - my grandfather would have voted Buchanan by accident if not for her warning EVERYBODY in her polling place about it. She's a tough cookie and she's pissed.
  •  Just Took Test (none)

     for Fla "Legal Team Election Monitor."  Even after a long day, dinner a t.v. movie and a couple of Beck's Oktoberfest beers, managed to score an '80' on the post-course 'test.'

     Have blue tie, will monitor.  Come Nov 1, driving south. . . .  Into the fray. . .


  •  Turnout? (none)
    Does that 90,000 - 100,000 net of votes factor in large turnout (ie. 90,000 is normal turnout, 100,000 is high turnout)?  If not, then that could be an even bigger margin coming out of Miami-Dade.
    •  NC is Becoming a Blue State (none)
      You're dang right it's still in play.  I live in Davidson County and i've talked to a lot of people that are tired of W's lies and want a change.  I think Edwards might actually win his own state.  People of NC show up and make the right choice on November 2nd.

      You never get anywhere in Life unless you stick your neck out.

      by Warlock311 on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 09:14:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Woodcrotft Parkway.....can't tell (none)
        But I run into more than one small businessman who are pissed over Iraq.  The tax thing don't seem to scare them away/....
        •  NC (none)
          Eventhough I have met people that say they don't like Bush...  I have to admit all of my friends like Bush and I don't know why.  I'm always having a debate with them over why they think Bush is better than Kerry and I seriously don't understand how they think the way they do.  They are concerned that Kerry is going to take back the tax cut for the top 1%, but my friends aren't in the upper 1% so why would that matter to them?  When it comes to the war, my friends only want to know the positives instead of the negatives.  Whenever I make a true comment about Bush that shows him in a bad light, my friends don't want to talk about it.  It just frustrates me people only hear what they want to hear and it's a shame that they don't want to hear the truth.

          You never get anywhere in Life unless you stick your neck out.

          by Warlock311 on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 09:58:48 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  your friends (none)
            sound mentally and emotionally lazy- unfortunately that is a lot of people- I am sure they are hard working in their jobs- but when it comes to the task of thinking they have settled into a pattern and dont want to do the work of actually finding out if it is right- you see a lot of people on the left and right like that. it's called being knee jerk.
      •  271 (none)
        wouldn't it be great to hear Russert say...geez so early in the evening we are now predicting at 10pm eastern time that North Carolina has been won by Kerry/Edwards giving them 271 delegates....Ladies and gentlemen...we have a winner...

        how would Bush fight NC?  

        •  WWBD? "What would Bush Do?" (none)
          That would be excellent, but it's kinda impossible mathimatically.  He's still going to do fine in the Electorial College though.

          He would fight NC by first giving us a scowl.  Then he would march in to town walking like a gunslinger.  Then he say something along the lines of "Bush sad...  me go poo poo in pants".  Then he'd run home and cry to Barbara and that would be it.

          You never get anywhere in Life unless you stick your neck out.

          by Warlock311 on Fri Oct 29, 2004 at 08:01:23 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  You know, it's scary, (none)
          but I can actually picture that entire scenario in my mind - right down to Russert et al's exact words as they sit in their Thrones of Punditry, utterly "flabbergasted" at the outcome:

          "Well, Tom, this one's a stunner! Look at all that blue where everyone predicted we'd see red...What happened?"

          If you ask me, I think every news organization in the country will be running LOTS of follow up stories about this election - not of the "who won?" variety, but rather the "how did we get it so wrong?" variety.

          I've also thought for quite some time that Kerry is going to take Florida. The pollsters have no idea how pissed off those people are. Frail old people DO NOT stand in line in the sweltering heat for hour after hour unless they're either a) waiting for a flu shot; b) pissed off beyond all reason; or c) both.

          God. I hope I just didn't jinx the election.

          Nah. I'm right.

  •  Go Florida (none)
    It's good to hear that Dade County is holding it down and showing overwhelming support for Kerry.  Now knowing this it looks like we will infact take Florida and achieve victory on November 3rd.

    As for the ad...  that was some funny stuff.  I say we get that onto TRL.

    You never get anywhere in Life unless you stick your neck out.

    by Warlock311 on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 09:07:04 PM PDT

    Don't forget there are 60,000 missing absentee ballots from Broward County, which is overwhelmingly Democratic.  This could have a significant impact on our chances.
    •  The number was actually much smaller. (nt) (none)
    •  i was really panicked about that (none)
      but on NPR this morning they said folks were either early voting in person, and they are overnighting new ballots out.  I don't know whose fault that was, but I think the USPS has a better track record than that.  I think it's pretty lame to blame however many tens of thousands of missing ballots on the post office.

      American military intervention is like American cinema. Really high production values, but the script sucks.

      by jibeaux on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 09:34:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Should have sent em.. UPS (none)
        The Vote Syncronized..  We want Kerry to race the truck!!
        •  Relax (none)
          This year FL accepts faxed absentee ballots as long as you sign the voter certificate and the two pages of the ballot.  They also email absentee ballots to voters now but you CANNOT email them back.  You can fax or mail.

          I was very satisfied this year.  I voted on Oct 18 and called yesterday to confirm.  The voting supervisor looked up my account in 30 seconds and confirmed that my ballot file was good to go. She was very friendly too and said to call back if any more concerns.

          Don't let the horror stories get to you.

          •  Wrong! (none)
            Marked ballots must be mailed or delivered in person reaching the supervisor of elections' office not later than 7 p.m. on the day of the election. Do not return your voted absentee ballot to a polling place

            Only overseas voters can fax their absentee ballots, according to the Florida elections website.


            You need to check your facts very carefully before telling others how they can vote.

            Cowboy George is a major player in the cowboy scene, he goes to the Reservation, drinks and gets mean. He's gonna start a war...

            by pacific city on Fri Oct 29, 2004 at 07:04:56 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Pattern of Electoral Votes (none)
    I was just looking at the map of the electoral vote predictions and it is amazing to see how the most well-educated states tend to be blue or leaning blue while the least educated of the electorate is red or leaning red.  Of course there are exceptions, but what ever happend to the democratic south? sad....
    •  The Democratic South disappeared... (none)
      In 1964 and beyond when the GOP traded its soul for the redneck/racist vote.
      •  Abortion and the "Gay Agenda" (none)
        Makes sens and I think they are doing/have done the same in states like Kansas with the pro-lifers and gay marriage bit.  There's no way they will overturn roe v. wade or pass a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage, but oh it gets their fundamentalist base going, doesn't it?  
      •  Role reversal (none)
        Don't forget that once upon a time it was the dems who were the redneck racist party (civil war era). Funny how they changed places a century later.
    •  Why amazing? Exacty what one would expect. (none)
      If education didn't tend to bring people to my side, I'd switch sides.

      "what ever happened to the democratic south?"

      It went to Nixon's "southern strategy" to woo racists.


      It's sad there are racists, certainly.

      •  Education vs. party status (none)
        I didn't mean that it was amazing that the blue states were the more educated of the electorate (that makes total sense to me), I just mean it is amazing how many southern states are now red...
    •  GOP to Dem (none)
      Everybody talks about the Democratic South as GOP now. But what about the GOP in New England. After Arizona the most reliably non-Democratic state in American history is Vermont, not New Hampshire or Maine.  Vermont NEVER voted Democrat until LBJ and then didn't vote Democrat until Clinton. Since 1992 it's been overwhelmingly Democrat. But that's a recent phenomena. Jim Jeffords made total sense there, every bit as much as Richard Shelby in Alabama.
  •  Bush may be trying to win without Florida. (none)
    It is possible for Bush to win without Florida or Ohio if he takes MN and MI instead, in addition to IA and WI (most polls show him ahead there) and holds CO and NV.  

    That would leave him ahead 271-267.  Give him NM too (likely if he can take MN and MI) and he gets 276-262.

    Are Michigan and Minnesota really in play?  Most here have dismissed the notion, but it may not be so far-fetched; Bush is actually spending more time there than in Ohio.

    •  Michigan (none)
      has the worst unemployment in the country, after Ohio. Should be safe, but depends on how successful they are at suppressing the vote in Detroit.

      We are finally trending upward consistently in the land of Wellstone--MN numbers are better every day.

      MN and Wisconsin have a great opportunity--you can register up to election day, so chances abound to increase our lead or for fraud.

      •  So far, so good... (none)
        I don't want to say things are wrapped up in Michigan, because BC04 does seem to be trying to steal it under the radar, but the Detroit supression story was the first one in the nation to really break (it was sometime early in the summer). Even that one was pretty mild - it was mostly about trying to make sure certain ballot initiatives did/didn't appear in Detroit that would make the election less interesting for black voters. So far, there haven't been any Ohio or Florida scale attempts here.

        We've got a lot of Democrats in power in the state, and the biggest flare-up was a tug-o-war over Nader.

        Now, that said, we still need volunteers, so if you live in Michigan, please report to your county Democratic headquarters immediately!

        -- Help put this ad on the air! --

        by fwiffo on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 10:37:24 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  If we get Ohio, Florida, and Penn (none)
      We will not lose because to win those states it means the GOTV effort has been successul and that will carry enough typical Midwest blue states.  These are the states that will have the new voters (kids from democratic families voting for the fist time etc...)  If turnout is good we will not lose all of these.  In fact we will probably not lose any of them (other than perhaps Iowa.. )
  •  Faux News (none)
    Anybody else dying to see how Brit and company call this election when Kerry wins? My guess...they will quickly tell us Kerry won then rush off to some breaking news in the Scott Peterson case.
    •  Going to be contrarian here (none)
      If Kerry wins, they will be the first.

      Murdoch wants to be on the winning side, and he'll think this will gain him a slight edge with the new crowd.

      It won't, but we'll enjoy the groveling.

      •  Like he was with Clinton? (none)
        You seem unaware that Murdoch has views.
      •  Their viewers would abandon them (none)
        Fox News is already taking heat by the Freepers that they are too liberal!! They had a huge thread not long ago totally hammering O'Reilly and how the Fox & Friends have turned to the "dark side" and people posting comments like "conservatives like us made you!!"

        If they call for Kerry early and then the network ends up being remember for helping Kerry win (much like they are remembered for helping Bush win in 2000 by calling Florida early) the conservative loyal viewers will never forgive them.

        Then again, this could be a good thing... the collapse of their network would be a great benefit to our democracy.

        John Kerry: strong leadership that can calm the waters of a troubled world.

        by diplomatic on Fri Oct 29, 2004 at 12:02:35 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  No'll be Clinton era all over again. (none)
        FOX will return to the role of being a watchdog over every move Kerry makes, just like it castrated Clinton.  In Bush's years it was the loyal lapdog because its boy was in power.  FOX will likely start to highlight everything wrong in Iraq and become anti-war as it tries to kick the responsibility to the dems.
  •  I believe that Kerry should win Florida (none)
    The best way to win this election and retake the White House from the "Grand Theft Autocrat" George W Bush is to win Florida.

    Not only would it be sweet revenge for what happened in 2000, it would also be "called" earlier in the day on Nov 2nd... giving huge buzz for Kerry as the evening progressed.

    I also would love to see Jeb and Katherine Harris be humiliated by their inability to steal it again.

    John Kerry: strong leadership that can calm the waters of a troubled world.

    by diplomatic on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 10:20:11 PM PDT

  •  Do You Realize (none)
    That over at Bush Cheney '04, they know this information?  Do you realize how uncomfortable they are right now?  Feels so good.
  •  Bill Hillsman would be proud (none)
    These guys at NDN might be the few media advisors actually worth their enormous salaries.

    "If they don't do their duty by the Democratic Party, they are the most ungrateful people in the world!" -Harry Truman

    by DWCG on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 11:03:50 PM PDT

  •  If Kerry were to win Dade County by 90-100k votes, (none)
    the margin in Palm Beach and Broward would likely be even more lopsided.  The two candidates are running even in the I-4 Corridor, with Dem turnout high.  It's hard to see how Bush makes up that margin.  Northern Florida is typically  Republican, but there are Democratic oases in that region (Gainesville, Tallahassee, and parts of Jacksonville).  There are a whole lot of votes there that can keep Bush's NOFLA margin to less than 10 points.  

    Basically, the road map to victory and redemption in Florida is beginning to crystallize.

    •  And if that's true, it's the end of the ballgame (none)
      We already know it's mathematically impossible for Shrub to win without Florida, regardless of what happens in Ohio.  And if Kerry racks it up in South Florida, about Shrub's only chance is to do really well in Orlando and Tampa Bay.  And we already know he can't count on Orlando--I suspect a lot of people will be influenced by the Sentinel's endorsement of Kerry.
  •  Let's hope its enough for Castor too (none)
    If I'm an uninformed Latino voter, one who hasn't been paying attention to the Senate race and is voting just because Bush is a disaster, I would very likely vote for the person with the Latin name on the ballot.

    "If they don't do their duty by the Democratic Party, they are the most ungrateful people in the world!" -Harry Truman

    by DWCG on Thu Oct 28, 2004 at 11:07:40 PM PDT

  •  Mosh the Vote! (none)
    Sounds applicable to Florida ('cept for the hoodie) ...

    Mosh the Vote!

    1. Wear your black hoodie (or the color you prefer).

    2. Bring multiple forms of ID to the polls (at least one of them should be a picture ID). If you have a voter registration card, bring it. Be ready to show them.

    3. Stand firm. If they try to delay voting by challenging multiple voters, do not give up and walk away. Your vote is your voice. Do not let them take away your voice. This is your lunch counter, your water fountain, your bus.

    4. Cheer up others who are delayed in line with you. Encourage them to stay and make their voice heard.

    5. Be kind, respectful, and non-violent. If someone provokes you, remain calm. Do not let them make you the bad guy. Your revolution is in the ballot box.

    6. If you are unfairly denied your right to vote, call the Election Protection Hotline immediately: 1-866-OUR-VOTE (1-866-687- 8683).

    Wear Black Hoodies to the Polls on November 2

    As a show of solidarity with those whose communities are deliberately targeted for intimidation and obstruction, whose voices have been repeatedly silenced, and who will be silent no more.

    To honor those who struggled, fought, and died to give you the right to cast your vote.

    To signify that, whatever our differences in age, color, gender, sexuality, or culture, we are a community of millions whose voices, multiplied and amplified, will echo and reverberate for generations.

    Posted by: hyperbolic pants explosion at October 28, 2004 09:17 PM

    (found on tonight's Majority Report blog)

    •  Wear a smile too (none)
      If you put on those black hoodies, remember to smile when you come up to the table with the elderly ladies.  I know some of them, and many (well, in my blue state at least) are deeply devoted to GOTV.  They love to see people exercising the franchise.

      Actually, smile even if you think you've got some who'd rather see you not voting.  You've got the power!

  •  Cheney is (none)
    headed for Hawaii , Its that close .
    •  cya (none)
      He he he He He

      I love that Cheney is spending time in Hawaii and not in Ohio, Florida or Penn.

      Of course, if Cheney was human, he'd enjoy a nice trip to hawaii.  Maybe on the, oh heck, we've lost this thing, lets get the campaign to send me to hawaii the way any normal person would score a trip to hawaii on the company account.

      But the vampire isn't human, so it must be something else.  Like those 3 or 4 EV are vital to keeping his ass outta jail.

    •  Hawaii has heavy Asian pops... (none)
      And they lean dem so I'm not worried at all.
  •  voting in miami... (none)
    i hear there are long lines already. i think the democrats did a great job in registering new voters this time around, especially on college campuses (where i registered). I think i'm going to go out and get it overwith this weekend actually.

    Go Kerry!

  •  364! (none)
    That's the number of Electoral Votes Kerry's going to win.

    "If they don't do their duty by the Democratic Party, they are the most ungrateful people in the world!" -Harry Truman

    by DWCG on Fri Oct 29, 2004 at 12:55:35 AM PDT

  •  2000 (none)
    Just did a quick check using Google.

    Gore beat Bush by approx 40,000 votes in Miami-Dade county in 2k.

    So, if the lead story on this thread is right, that means Kerry-Edwards are something like 50k to 60k ahead of that.

    I'm sure the Rethugs have mobilized more votes too.  They've been heavily doing voter reg in the wingnut fundamedalist churches, and I'm sure at least some nascar rednecks in Florida actually believe this tougth strong war-time leader crap.  So Bush has already gained back some of those 50k votes.

    But still, 50k is a lot.  Especially since Students in places like Tallahassee and Gainesville probably have organized more pro-Kerry votes than Gore got last time too.

    Heck, I'm at the point where its just work and pray that Ding Dong, the Bush is Dead, the wicked Bush is dead!

  •  Huge Democratic Turnout in Broward (none),0,6418321.story?coll=sfla-hom e-headlines

    Key comment:

    "Overwhelming numbers of Broward County Democrats have turned out to vote early in next week's election in what analysts say could be a bad sign for President Bush's chances to win the state."

  •  the boriqua factor (none)
    Puerto Ricans are the majority of eligible Latino voters in Orange, Broward,Palm Beach,
    Osceola counties. They are automatic citizens, and tend to vote democratic.1/3rd of Cubans are not citizens and they are concentrated in Dade county... Cubans are losing hold of the electorate...which is good news for dems.
    •  I wouldn't mind Cubans being a Force (none)

       in "the electorate," if as a body Cuban-Americans were not just voting for the single issue of "Death to Castro."

       And, indeed, that seems to be the trend among younger and more level-headed Cuba-Americans.

       The cognative dissonance, as well as mental and geopolitical gymastics is truly a thing to behold when watching those who contend that "engagement" is the way to go with China and Viet Nam, but that confrontation will lead to a less totalitarian Cuba.  What a load of hypocritical crap.

       Again, it seems younger Cuban-Americans are starting to clue-into the crazyness of these contradictory foreign policies...


  •  rumor re: florida voters voting twice (none)
    my p.t. told me yesterday that she saw a report on tv that georgia voters were voting twice, once at home and once at their summer residence in florida.

    did she just get it wrong, and the report was about people choosing to vote once at one address or the other, and these people choosing florida?  anyone know/hear?

  •  I learn something new everyday at dailykos (none)
    "Guanaco" - thank you.  I did not know that one.  

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