Tony Snow had the unpleasant task on Fox News this afternoon to announce the latest, (half the survey sample was taken post OBL statement), Fox News poll results.
Oct 28/29
LV - Bush 47, Kerry 45
RV - Bush 46, Kerry 46
Now, read between the lines and see what Fox didn't tell you: their own numbers show Kerry with all the juice!
Extrapolations offered below...
These are
rolling numbers that Fox is putting out...
On October 27/28 it had the LV at Bush 50, Kerry 45...
On October 28/29 it had the LV at Bush 47, Kerry 45...
NOTE: half of both samples was the same survey pool from October 28 (Thursday)... Thus, the difference in last night's post-OBL statement polling in fact had to be closer to Kerry 45, Bush 44... a drop in six points for Bush, post OBL statement, while Kerry stayed exactly the same.
And, of course, the RV at 46-46 had Tony Snow gulping as he had to read it (yes, I'm a sick puppy, I like to watch Fox because it's so infuriating as to be more interesting than my other Americans abroad options: CNN International or BBC... Keep your friends close and your enemies on the tube...).
The Fox poll also showed, that among Kerry voters, 92% will definitely vote Kerry and 6% say they still might change their minds...
While among Bush voters, 86 percent will definitely vote Bush and 12% say they still might change their minds...
Now, translate those numbers into likely voters who are definite about their candidate and it is Kerry 41.4 to Bush 40.4!
And among registered voters it translates to Kerry 42.32 to Bush 39.56!
There is your "hard" vote for each candidate, even with Fox's skewed numbers.
That kind of number also effects turnout: Kerry's troops are more fired up, with fewer doubts.
And although the Foxies aren't crunching their numbers on air that way, you can see in their scared faces that they are certainly doing it backstage.