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There've been some presidential predictions contests floating around here and elsewhere. I'd like to start a Senate predictions contest as well. Though I don't wish to be a self-promoter, this contest will only really be interesting if this diary gets recommended... so if you're intrigued, please do so.

Anyhow, the idea here is simple: For all the top-tier races, just list your expected winner. This is the list I'm working with (in alphabetical order by state):


  • AK: TONY KNOWLES vs. Lisa Murkowski (inc.)
  • CO: KEN SALAZAR v. Pete Coors (open)
  • FL: BETTY CASTOR v. Mel Martinez (open)
  • KY: DAN MONGIARDO v. Jim Bunning (inc.)
  • NC: ERSKINE BOWLES v. Richard Burr (open)
  • OK: BRAD CARSON v. Tom Coburn (open)
  • SC: INEZ TENENBAUM v. Jim DeMint (open)
  • SD: TOM DASCHLE (inc.) v. John Thune

The tie-breaker is, will the Louisiana Senate race require a run-off, yes or no?

Post your predictions in the comments below. Good luck, and go Dems!

Originally posted to David Nir on Sun Oct 31, 2004 at 08:41 PM PST.

Poll

Which GOP-held seat is our likeliest pickup?

40%26 votes
41%27 votes
7%5 votes
10%7 votes

| 65 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  asdf (none)
    Knowles, Salazar, Bowles, Castor, Daschle.

    "I'm the Vice-President. They know it, and they know that I know it." --Dan Quayle

    by BaltimoreDem on Sun Oct 31, 2004 at 08:41:57 PM PST

  •  Here we go.... (none)
    Knowles, Salazar, Castor, Bunning, Burr, Carson, DeMint, Daschle.  

    Yes, there'll be a runoff.  

  •  pred. (none)
    Doing well in football tonight, so figured I'll try my luck here.  Of course, this means I'll also be rational, so there's a few disappointing choices here (e.g., I hope to hell Coburn and Bunning lose, but.)

    Knowles
    Salazar
    Castor
    Bunning
    Burr
    Coburn
    DeMint
    Daschle

    LA: Yes, but barely (49%)

    And Obama will win by 52.

    •  you must be kidding (none)
      with the Obama prediction- he's been polling in the high 60s for months
      •  Obama (none)
        I take Obama by 52 to mean Obama 76 Keyes 24
        •  Obama (none)
          That should be about right. The race will be called here exactly .0001 microseconds after our polls close.

          Keyes' selection will reverberate into the next election cycle when the more moderate Republicans in the state party apparatus wreak vengeance on State Senator Syverson and the other whack-jobs who let him get the nod.

          Giving the nod to Keyes was, I would strongly surmise, a calculated move by state party moderates to conduct a purge of the conservative elements within the IL Republican party who have, by and large, Senator Fitzgerald being the LARGE exception, run piss poor races and been blown apart.

          IL is a state where you can run as a moderate GOPer or a Democrat, but generally, you cannot run as a conservative Republican.

          There are a host of minor office right wing GOPers Chairwoman Topinka and others would like to purge...a 22-26% showing by Keyes gives them the ammunition they've been wanting.

  •  predix (none)
    Knowles, Salzar, Castor, Bunning, Bowles, Carson, Tenenbaum, Daschle

    http://www.viewfromtheleft.blogspot.com

    by TexasDemocrat06 on Sun Oct 31, 2004 at 08:45:10 PM PST

  •  What do I win if I'm right? (none)
    Knowles
    Salazar
    Castor
    Bunning
    Bowles
    Carson
    DeMint
    Daschle

    Yes, there will be a runoff, between Vitter and John, and Vitter will win.

    I like Paul Babbitt. After you read this, so will you.

    by Nonpartisan on Sun Oct 31, 2004 at 08:46:38 PM PST

  •  My 0.02 (none)
    AK: TONY KNOWLES vs. Lisa Murkowski (inc.)
    Knowles by 1
    CO: KEN SALAZAR v. Pete Coors (open)
    Salazar by 6
    FL: BETTY CASTOR v. Mel Martinez (open)
    Castor by <1
    KY: DAN MONGIARDO v. Jim Bunning (inc.)
    Bunning by 3
    NC: ERSKINE BOWLES v. Richard Burr (open)
    Burr by <1
    OK: BRAD CARSON v. Tom Coburn (open)
    Carson by 2
    SC: INEZ TENENBAUM v. Jim DeMint (open)
    DeMint by 3
    SD: TOM DASCHLE (inc.) v. John Thune
    Daschle by 2

    Yes, there will be a runoff in Louisiana

    ~Liberal in the best sense of the word~

    by Lucky Ducky on Sun Oct 31, 2004 at 08:46:42 PM PST

  •  Here are my picks (none)

       Tony Knowles wins
       Ken Salazar wins
       Betty Castor wins
       Jim Bunning wins
       Erskine Bowles wins
       Brad Carson wins
       Demint wins
       Daschle wins

        Tie breaker. LA goes to a runoff, whic will be won by Chris John.
       

  •  everything but SC and KY (none)
    Knowles, Salazar, Castor, Bunning, Bowles, Carson DeMint, Daschle

    Yes a LA run-off, and John wins.

    Gosh, I don't think I ever said I'm not worried about Osama bin Laden

    by willyr on Sun Oct 31, 2004 at 08:56:36 PM PST

  •  we run the tables (none)
    although i'm least sure about LA.
  •  Big Day for Dems (none)
    AK: TONY KNOWLES vs. Lisa Murkowski (inc.)
    Knowles

    CO: KEN SALAZAR v. Pete Coors (open)
    Salazar

    FL: BETTY CASTOR v. Mel Martinez (open)
    Castor

    KY: DAN MONGIARDO v. Jim Bunning (inc.)
    Mongiardo

    NC: ERSKINE BOWLES v. Richard Burr (open)
    Bowles

    OK: BRAD CARSON v. Tom Coburn (open)
    Carson

    SC: INEZ TENENBAUM v. Jim DeMint (open)
    Tenenbaum

    SD: TOM DASCHLE (inc.) v. John Thune
    Thune Hate to say it...

    4 pickups, 3 keeps, 1 lost seat for Democrats, with a net gain of 3 among this group.

    The Illinois will be cancelled out by the loss of Miller's seat in Georgia.

    Chafee of Rhode Island will become an Independent and caucus with Democrats.

    Cheney those Cheneying Cheneyers!!!

    by Dmitri in San Diego on Sun Oct 31, 2004 at 08:57:52 PM PST

  •  Pred. (none)
    Dems pickup 5 from Republicans

    Alaska
    Colorado
    Oklahoma
    Illinois
    North Carolina

    Republicans pickup 2 from Dems

    Georgia
    South Carolina

    No change:  
    South Dakota (Daschle wins)
    Florida (Castor wins)

    Louisiana: December run-off required

    "Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast." Lewis Carroll

    by kathyp on Sun Oct 31, 2004 at 09:00:18 PM PST

  •  My Predictions (none)
    AK: TONY KNOWLES vs. Lisa Murkowski (inc.)

    CO: KEN SALAZAR v. Pete Coors (open) - Salazar - Hispanic Vote

    FL: BETTY CASTOR v. Mel Martinez (open) - Castor - Heavy Black Turnout

    KY: DAN MONGIARDO v. Jim Bunning (inc.) - Mangiardo - Suprise Win

    NC: ERSKINE BOWLES v. Richard Burr (open) - Burr - Afraid of Kerry Admin

    OK: BRAD CARSON v. Tom Coburn (open) Coburn - Afraid of Kerry win

    SC: INEZ TENENBAUM v. Jim DeMint (open) DeMint - Afraid of Kerry win

    SD: TOM DASCHLE (inc.) v. John Thune - Tom Dachle - in a squeaker

  •  dems win em all (none)
    exept for S Carolina. Yes on a runoff (we won't win the runoff because the Louis voters will want a check on Pres Kerry)

    this is your mission: TERMINATE the Bush presidency

    by nevadadem on Sun Oct 31, 2004 at 09:02:12 PM PST

  •  Predictions (none)
    AK: TONY KNOWLES
    CO: KEN SALAZAR
    FL: BETTY CASTOR
    KY: Jim Bunning
    NC: ERSKINE BOWLES (closest % edge in Sen races)
    OK: BRAD CARSON
    SC: Jim DeMint
    SD: TOM DASCHLE

    Louisiana will require a runoff which the Democrat will probably win.

    Other races where I see possible closer shaves than expected--though not upsets:

    WA: Nethercutt getting closer than expected.
    WI: Michels getting closer than expected.
    NH: Haddock getting closer than expected.
    MD: Pipken getting closer than expected.

    I reiterate I expect Murray, Feingold, Gregg, & Mikulski all to win, but not by what conventional wisdom would indicate.

    •  What is conventional wisdom? (none)
      Feingold won by a whopping 2% in '98. No one really expects him to win by double digits. Are you saying that he's going to get by with like .5% of the vote?
      •  Feingold (none)
        I agree that Russ had a very close race last time. The issue here is that he's been projected to be 15-22% up and my guess is that he will not be anywhere close to that.

        To the extent that the Bush folks drive turnout on their side, insufficiently in the end I think to affect the result of the state's electoral allocation, that will tend to inflate Michels' total beyond what I think it would otherwise have been in a non-presidential year.

        Though all the predictions are to the contrary, I'd be surprised to see Russ pull more than 53% at the outside here.

        That said, more votes that Michels is what I'd settle for.

  •  Predictions (none)
    The site's been a bit slow (either that, or my connection has), so I couldn't post my own predictions until now. Let's see:

    AK: Knowles
    CO: Salazar
    FL: Castor
    KY: Bunning
    NC: Burr
    OK: Carson
    SC: DeMint
    SD: Daschle

    Sorry, Dan, Erskine and Inez. Oh, and I think there will not be a run-off in Louisiana.

    Swing State Project - Analyzing the 2004 battleground states.

    by David Nir on Sun Oct 31, 2004 at 09:07:21 PM PST

  •  Mine (none)
    Daschel: Win, 50-49 (Typical SD race)
    Obama:  Win, 79-14 (Landslide for the future president)
    Salazar:  Win, 55-44 (Solid win here)
    Bowles:  Win, 52-47 (Bowles squeeks by with help from black voters.
    Tenenbaum:  Loss, 52-47 (Tough loss for Inez, but don't worry, she will be back in '06.)
    Carson:  Win, 51-48 (Great win for Carson.  Coburn murders, wife out of rage)
    Knowels:  Win,52-47  (Another solid win)
    Castor:  Win, 50.1-49.7 (Numbers are EXACTLY the same in the presidential race, with Kerry winning of course)
    Mongionardo:  Loss, 51-49 (Another tough loss, but again, he will be back)

    UPSET SPECIAL:

    FINGERHUT UPSETS DEWINE IN OH BY LESS THAN 1%.

    You heard it here first folks!

    "Fool me once...shame on...shame on you...you fool me once you can't fool me again!" George W. Bush

    by jkfp2004 on Sun Oct 31, 2004 at 09:13:20 PM PST

  •  me, me, me (none)
    • Knowles win
    • Salazar win
    • Castor win
    • Bunning win
    • Bowles win
    • Carson win
    • DeMint win
    • Thune win

    Louisiana senate will go to run off (John (D) will win run-off)

    New senate: 50D, 50R

  •  Yeah, what will I win? (as if) (none)

    AK: KNOWLES wins

    CO: SALAZAR wins

    FL: CASTOR wins

    KY: Bunning wins

    NC: BOWLES wins

    OK: CARSON wins

    SC: DeMint wins

    SD: DASCHLE wins

    Louisiana Senate race requires a run-off

  •  My Picks (none)
    AK: Tony Knowles by 3
    CO: Ken Salazar by .2
    FL: Betty Castor by 7
    KY: Dan Mongiardo by 5
    NC: Richard Burr by .7
    OK: Brad Carson by 7
    SC: Inez Tenenbaum by .2
    SD: Tom Daschle by 3

    Louisiana - Vitter gets 49.3%, so yes a runoff.

  •  aeou (none)
    Knowles, Salazar, Castor, Bunning, Burr, Carson, DeMint, Daschle. Vitter will win without a runoff
  •  Senate (none)
        *  AK: TONY KNOWLES
        * CO: KEN SALAZAR
        * FL: BETTY CASTOR
        * KY: Jim Bunning
        * NC: Richard Burr
        * OK: Tom Coburn
        * SC: Jim DeMint
        * SD: TOM DASCHLE
  •  Roast the assclowns (none)
    All Democratic, except for Bunning and DeMint.  I was very impressed with Inez Tenenbaum when I lived in South Carolina.  I'd love to see her squeak through.  It distresses me to see the number who pick Richard Burr,an oleanginous turd who just stepped out of the shower, hoping to drip dry.  I'm praying North Carolina turnout overwhelms him. There will be a runoff in Louisiana and I'll pick the Democrat to win; I campaigned for Jimmy Carter there in 1976 (in the primaries)and, trust me, you don't know the meaning of the phrase "whatever it takes" until you've seen a Louisiana election.  Edwin Edwards may have been different in degree, but not in kind.
  •  My picks (none)
    AK: TONY KNOWLES

    CO: KEN SALAZAR

    FL: BETTY CASTOR

    KY: Jim Bunning

    NC: Richard Burr

    OK: Tom Coburn

    SC: Jim DeMint

    SD: TOM DASCHLE

  •  Predictions (none)
    AK: Tony Knowles
    Co: Ken Salazar
    FL: Betty Castor
    KY: Dan Mongiardo
    NC: Erskine Bowles
    OK: Brad Carson
    SC: Jim DeMint
    SD: Tom Daschle

    Louisiana Senate race WILL be a runoff, with Chris John the eventual victor.

  •  Hate to be pessimistic, but (none)
    I don't think this is our year in the Senate.  Too many dem open seats, and all the close races are in red states where Bush will have coattails.

    KNOWLES
    SALAZAR
    Martinez
    Bunning
    Burr
    Coburn
    DeMint
    Thune

    No runoff in LA.

    if you like this post, you'll like my blog, odd hours.

    by exponential on Mon Nov 01, 2004 at 11:27:55 AM PST

    •  Agreed (none)
      Too many open Dem seats.  But I think Daschle will limp across in a 49-49 tie (will win by about .2%):

      KNOWLES by 4%
      SALAZAR by 6%
      Martinez by 4%
      Bunning by 10%
      Burr by 8%
      Coburn by 8%
      DeMint by 6%
      Daschle by .2%
      Vitter by plurality vs John in runoff.  John by 2%

  •  senate predix (none)
    Alaska: Knowles
    Colorado: Salazar
    Florida: Castor
    Kentucky: Bunning by a hair
    North Carolina: Bowles
    Oklahoma: Carson by a hair (closest race)
    South Carolina: DeMint
    South Dakota: Daschle by a hair

    Louisiana: Vitter in Dec. runoff

    Net: +2 Dems
    Chafee stays Rep

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