Last week's results are
here. Jerome has his predictions
here (he sees a wash -- three pickups for each party).
Note that several of these contests are so close that you can flip a coin and do as well as trying to make an educated guess. Making these sorts of predictions are an invitation to future ridicule, but what the heck. (Last week's ranking in parenthesis.)
1 (1) Illinois (R open seat)
No one is sweating this one.
Definite Dem pickup
2 (2) Georgia (D open seat): (D open seat)
Probably not the blowout some expect, but still a safe bet to go from faux Dem to real Republican.
Likely GOP pickup
3 (3) Colorado (R open seat)
Democrat Ken Salazar has led in all the recent polls. Nothing to indicate that Pete Coors can pull this off. Still, this is Colorado, and there are enough Republicans around to pull off the upset.
Likely Dem pickup
4 (4) South Carolina (D open seat):
Democrat Inez Tenenbaum has tried to talk about outsourcing and the minimum wage in a state that has been pummeled by outsourcing. Republican Jim DeMint has talked about "liberal, liberal, liberal". Unfortunately, this is South Carolina.
Likely Rep pickup
5 (5) North Carolina (D open seat):
Jerome thinks Democrat Erskine Bowles can pull this one off. I'm a bit shellshocked from watching him squander a double-digit lead. I'm not optimistic.
Leans Rep pickup
6 (7) Alaska (R incumbent):
Democrat Tony Knowles never trailed in a independent poll. Of course, he never led by more than a few points. Tight from the beginning, this one will end tight. But I trust in Knowles' ground game and hostility toward the nepotistic Murkowskis.
Leans Dem pickup
7 (6) Oklahoma (R open seat):
This is Oklahoma, and Democrats don't win federal office. But the Dems were blessed with one hell of a candidate, and Republicans cursed with the candidate from hell. I see a margin of victory in the hundreds, with Democrat Brad Carson pulling it off. But seriously, flip a coin. You'll have the same odds of calling this one.
Leans Dem pickup
8 (10) South Dakota (D incumbent):
Jerome thinks this is the year Daschle falters. A Daschle poll released a couple of days ago had him at 50-48. A Zogby poll released at the same time had Thune at 48-46. An NRSC poll a week ago had Thune winning 49-45. Another flip of the coin, but I'm betting on the famed Daschle ground game to carry him over the top.
Leans Dem retention
9 (8) Kentucky (R incumbent):
This race was looking good for a while, but Mongiardo's (D) charge seems to have been halted. Bunning still enjoys the trappings of incumbency in a solid Red state. It could go either way, but I give the edge to Bunning.
Leans GOP retention
10 (9) Louisiana (D open seat):
If this race makes it to the runoff, the Dems will hold it. But Republican David Vitter has been flirting with getting the 50 percent he'd need to avoid a runoff. However, tracking polls in the race are showing Vitter pull away from that 50 percent mark. This one seems headed to a December runoff.
Leans Dem retention
11 (11) Florida (D open seat):
Democrat Betty Castor has all the momentum, and is backed up by the massive Dem GOTV effort in the state.
Leans Dem retention
Bottom Line
If my math is correct (never a good assumption), these results would give Democrats four pickups, and Republicans three pickups, for a net gain of one Democratic seat and a 50-50 Senate.