Folks...IT'S ELECTION DAY!
GO VOTE! GET OUT THE VOTE! DRAG ALL OF YOUR FRIENDS AND NEIGHBORS TO THE POLLS!
Welcome to the Final Electoral College Projections. As you see, I've done this for almost two weeks now. As you see, Kerry is in a better position to win tonight than he has been in 8 of the 12 other nights.
Tonight's diary is broken down into three parts:
- State Results
- Electoral College Projections
- Trends
Results for [yesterday http://www.dailykos.com/story/2004/11/1/04529/7688]
As you can see, this is a greatly expanded table from what I have posted before. The tables include the following information:
- State and Electoral Votes
- Projection if undecideds split equally 50%/50%
- Projection if undecideds split 60% / 40% for Kerry
- Projection if undecideds split 67% / 33% for Kerry
- Projection if undecides split 75% / 25% for Kerry
- Projection if undecides split 86% / 14% Kerry
- Estimated Undecided split needed for Kerry to carry the state
A note about the 86/14 split. This is the average margin that undecides split for the challenger in Presidential elections according to myDD
Also note, Bush does not win a single state unless he garners over 49% of the vote in that state. Currently his polling average in Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are all under 49%
This means that if Bush does not receive any more votes than his current polling average, Kerry would win by a smashing 327 to 211
If his actual results dip 1.5% from his current averages (the average Gallup national poll is 1.5% higher than actual results for an incumbent...so I am extropolating quite a bit), then Kerry would crush Bush 375 to 163
What would Bush need to win? Considering that Florida has 11 polls, Iowa has 9 polls, Ohio has 10 polls, Pennsylvania has 11 polls, and Wisconsin has 8 polls, the reliability of the above averages should be considered rather stable
This means that basically one of three things must be true for Bush to be able to win the election: Either 1) The polls must be wholesalely biased in favor of Kerry, 2) Bush would have to surge tomorrow, or 3) undecideds break unusually strongly for him. Of course, any of these are possible, but none of them seem probable to me.
State Results
Arizona (10) |
50/50 |
60/40 |
67/33 |
75/25 |
86/14 |
Bush |
52.3% |
51.5% |
50.9% |
50.2% |
49.2% |
Kerry |
46.7% |
47.5% |
48.1% |
48.8% |
49.8% |
Undecideds Needed: |
83% / 17% |
|
|
|
|
Arkansas (6) |
50/50 |
60/40 |
67/33 |
75/25 |
86/14 |
Bush |
51.6% |
51.0% |
50.6% |
50.2% |
49.6% |
Kerry |
47.4% |
48.0% |
48.3% |
48.8% |
49.4% |
Undecideds Needed: |
89% / 11% |
|
|
|
|
Colorado (9) |
50/50 |
60/40 |
67/33 |
75/25 |
86/14 |
Bush |
52.0% |
51.7% |
51.4% |
51.2% |
50.8% |
Kerry |
47.0% |
47.3% |
47.6% |
47.8% |
48.2% |
Undecideds Needed: |
More than 100% |
|
|
|
|
Florida (27) |
50/50 |
60/40 |
67/33 |
75/25 |
86/14 |
Bush |
49.6% |
49.3% |
49.0% |
48.8% |
48.4% |
Kerry |
48.6% |
48.9% |
49.2% |
49.5% |
49.9% |
Undecideds Needed: |
66% / 34% |
|
|
|
|
Iowa (7) |
50/50 |
60/40 |
67/33 |
75/25 |
86/14 |
Bush |
49.5% |
49.1% |
48.9% |
48.5% |
48.1% |
Kerry |
49.1% |
49.4% |
49.7% |
50.0% |
50.5% |
Undecideds Needed: |
57% / 43% |
|
|
|
|
Maine (4) |
50/50 |
60/40 |
67/33 |
75/25 |
86/14 |
Bush |
45.0% |
44.1% |
43.6% |
42.8% |
41.9% |
Kerry |
52.3% |
53.2% |
53.8% |
54.5% |
55.5% |
Undecideds Needed: |
7% / 93% |
|
|
|
|
Michigan (17) |
50/50 |
60/40 |
67/33 |
75/25 |
86/14 |
Bush |
47.7% |
47.2% |
46.9% |
46.5% |
45.9% |
Kerry |
50.8% |
51.3% |
51.7% |
52.1% |
52.6% |
Undecideds Needed: |
19% / 81% |
|
|
|
|
Minnesota (10) |
50/50 |
60/40 |
67/33 |
75/25 |
86/14 |
Bush |
47.2% |
46.8% |
46.5% |
46.1% |
45.6% |
Kerry |
50.9% |
51.4% |
51.7% |
52.0% |
52.5% |
Undecideds Needed: |
9% / 91% |
|
|
|
|
Missouri (11) |
50/50 |
60/40 |
67/33 |
75/25 |
86/14 |
Bush |
51.9% |
51.6% |
51.3% |
51.0% |
50.6% |
Kerry |
47.1% |
47.4% |
47.7% |
48.0% |
48.4% |
Undecideds Needed: |
More than 100% |
|
|
|
|
Nevada (5) |
50/50 |
60/40 |
67/33 |
75/25 |
86/14 |
Bush |
50.9% |
50.6% |
50.4% |
50.2% |
49.9% |
Kerry |
47.6% |
47.9% |
48.1% |
48.3% |
48.6% |
Undecideds Needed: |
More than 100% |
|
|
|
|
New Hampshire (4) |
50/50 |
60/40 |
67/33 |
75/25 |
86/14 |
Bush |
47.4% |
47.0% |
46.8% |
46.5% |
46.1% |
Kerry |
50.6% |
51.0% |
51.2% |
51.5% |
51.9% |
Undecideds Needed: |
5% / 95% |
|
|
|
|
New Mexico (5) |
50/50 |
60/40 |
67/33 |
75/25 |
86/14 |
Bush |
49.8% |
49.4% |
49.13% |
48.8% |
48.4% |
Kerry |
48.4% |
48.8% |
49.07% |
49.4% |
49.8% |
Undecideds Needed: |
69% / 31% |
|
|
|
|
North Carolina (15) |
50/50 |
60/40 |
67/33 |
75/25 |
86/14 |
Bush |
53.8% |
53.5% |
53.2% |
53.0% |
52.7% |
Kerry |
45.3% |
45.6% |
45.8% |
46.0% |
46.3% |
Undecideds Needed: |
More than 100% |
|
|
|
|
Ohio (20) |
50/50 |
60/40 |
67/33 |
75/25 |
86/14 |
Bush |
49.9% |
49.55% |
49.3% |
49.1% |
48.7% |
Kerry |
49.3% |
49.58% |
49.8% |
50.0% |
50.4% |
Undecideds Needed: |
60% / 40% |
|
|
|
|
Pennsylvania (21) |
50/50 |
60/40 |
67/33 |
75/25 |
86/14 |
Bush |
48.5% |
48.2% |
47.9% |
47.7% |
47.3% |
Kerry |
50.5% |
50.8% |
51.1% |
51.3% |
51.7% |
Undecideds Needed: |
19% / 81% |
|
|
|
|
Virginia (13) |
50/50 |
60/40 |
67/33 |
75/25 |
86/14 |
Bush |
52.5% |
52.0% |
51.7% |
51.3% |
50.7% |
Kerry |
46.5% |
47.0% |
47.3% |
47.8% |
48.3% |
Undecideds Needed: |
More Than 100% |
|
|
|
|
West Virginia (5) |
50/50 |
60/40 |
67/33 |
75/25 |
86/14 |
Bush |
53.3% |
53.0% |
52.7% |
52.4% |
52.0% |
Kerry |
45.6% |
45.9% |
46.2% |
46.5% |
46.9% |
Undecideds Needed: |
More Than 100% |
|
|
|
|
Wisconsin (10) |
50/50 |
60/40 |
67/33 |
75/25 |
86/14 |
Bush |
49.3% |
49.0% |
48.7% |
48.4% |
48.0% |
Kerry |
49.1% |
49.4% |
49.7% |
50.0% |
50.4% |
Undecideds Needed: |
55% / 45% |
|
|
|
|
Electoral College Results:
Electoral College (538) |
50/50 |
60/40 |
67/33 |
75/25 |
86/14 |
Bush |
296 |
259 |
232 |
227 |
217 |
Kerry |
242 |
279 |
306 |
311 |
321 |
Undecideds Needed: |
60% / 40% |
|
|
|
|
Trends:
Date |
60/40 |
67/33 |
75/25 |
10/21/2004 |
Kerry 294 Bush 244 |
Kerry 311 Bush 227 |
|
10/22/2004 |
Kerry 267 Bush 244 Tied 27 |
Kerry 311 Bush 227 |
|
10/23/2004 |
Kerry 274 Bush 264 |
Kerry 284 Bush 254 |
|
10/24/2004 |
Kerry 271 Bush 267 |
Kerry 294 Bush 244 |
|
10/25/2004 |
Kerry 289 Bush 249 |
Kerry 289 Bush 249 |
Kerry 299 Bush 239 |
10/26/2004 |
Kerry 262 Bush 276 |
Kerry 289 Bush 249 |
Kerry 306 Bush 222 Tie 10 |
10/27/2004 |
Kerry 262 Bush 276 |
Kerry 272 Bush 266 |
Kerry 311 Bush 227 |
10/28/2004 |
Kerry 269 Bush 269 |
Kerry 279 Bush 259 |
Kerry 306 Bush 232 |
10/29/2004 |
Kerry 272 Bush 266 |
Kerry 306 Bush 232 |
Kerry 306 Bush 232 |
10/30/2004 |
Kerry 262 Bush 276 |
Kerry 269 Bush 269 |
Kerry 296 Bush 242 |
10/31/2004 |
Kerry 306 Bush 232 |
Kerry 306 Bush 232 |
Kerry 311 Bush 227 |
11/1/2004 |
Kerry 279 Bush 259 |
Kerry 306 Bush 232 |
Kerry 311 Bush 227 |