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It saddens me greatly to report that the voters in Florida and Ohio are staggeringly dishonest.  They appear to have uniquely lied to the exit pollsters yesterday, unlike the honest citizens of every other state.  This seems the only rational explanation for the very big discrepancy between (the original) exit poll results and the outcomes of their (reported) votes.

It is sad when the citizens of such fine states cannot be relied on to accurately report their votes.  It is a good thing that Diebold is there to report their votes for them.

See below the fold for substantiation of the mismatch between exit polls and reported results courtesy of Requiem99 at DU.

The assertion by pundits/Bushies that exit polling was 'way off', and thus, exit polls, which showed an easy Kerry victory in both Ohio and Florida, were incorrectly skewed and did not represent the electorate, is completely bogus.

This is disproved in minutes by simply noting the entire rest of the suite of exit polls conducted by AP and distributed to the news media. View here:

AP exit polls [This link no longer works, which may indicate that they are covering their tracks.]

Notice, if you will, that states with a narrow or wide Bush margin of victory NOT called Ohio or Florida, project perfectly. Missouri leans to Bush in exit polls, and leaned to him in the vote. Tennessee likewise was favorable to Bush in exit polls, and it showed in the final results with a clear Bush margin of victory. Pick a state, any state, there is not one single exit poll off by more than a few percentage points in any semi-competitive race. Not one.

Except 2. Ohio and Florida, the latter of which has already been "awarded" to Bush, and the former, which appears to nearly be a lock for him as he is up 3 percentage points with 80 percent of the electorate tallied. George Bush's win in each of these 2 states is nowhere near what exit polls suggest. In Ohio, Kerry had a small but noticeable lead with both male and female voters, a rare thing for him as males have tended to favor Bush in this election by a small margin. Likewise, independent voters clearly broke for Kerry, by a 21 percent margin, 60-39. This is not anywhere near the result we are seeing now, and along with Florida, whom I will get to in a moment, it is a clear and blatant sign of voter fraud. I don't use that most dangerous of "F" words lightly, but I must call a wolf a wolf and a sheep a sheep, and this whole setup stinks like Karl Rove after he's ran 15 feet.

. . . While Mr. Kerry had 6 percent less support from his party than Mr. Bush did, he scored among woman yet again (54 percent of Florida's electorate) by a 52-48 margin, small but important, while losing men (46 percent of the electorate) 47-52, essentially the same margin. Independents, however, broke heavily for John Kerry, favoring him a staggering 60-38 over Mr. Bush. At the very least, this would suggest a very close race, and certainly not the lopsided blowout it turned out to be.

As Joe Pesci once said, "Something is fishy in Florida."

Ohio too, Joe. Ohio too.

Another analysis of the data from SoCalDemocrat also indicates that there is a significant imbalance between the exit polls and the results.

Here is exit polling for Florida (3,824,794 votes for Kerry & Bush)

Male: 52/47 Kerry 46%

Female: 52/48 Kerry 54%

Dem: 86/13 Kerry 38%

Rep: 92/7 Bush 39%

Ind: 60/38 Kerry 23%

3,824,794 votes for Kerry & Bush

2065388 Women (54% of total)

1759405 Men (46% of total)

Bush leads male vote by 5% of M = 87970

Kerry leads female vote by 4% of M = 82615

That means Bush is ahead by just 5355 votes in exit polling in FL.

Another odd thing is that there are more Reps then Dems in Florida by 1%, which is not expected. Either there are more voting Republicans in FL than Democrats, a first and not matching known statistics, or more Republicans were exit polled than Democrats. If the exit poll is off by just 1% that's a difference of 382479 more voters who are Democracts.

The results being posted however show Bush ahead 326,000 actual votes. This is simply not possible from the exit polling numbers. Even skewed for a 5% higher Republican vs. Democrat turnout from 2000, it doesn't add up.

When you add this to the stories about the changed exit polls in the middle of the night after polls had long closed, there appears to be some dishonesty somewhere. It's a good thing that EarlG at DU was farsighted enough to do a screencapture of the earlier posted exit polls for comparison.

Now the interesting comparison for statistical wonks out there will be the exit polls in counties with old fashioned voting in OH and FL against counties with blackbox voting. If our fellow citizens who lied to the exit pollsters are highly concentrated not just in Ohio and Florida but in counties with Diebold machines, then we will know something truly worth knowing. It will also be interesting to compare the recorded numbers of voters in these districts as reported by the election observers with the recorded votes.

I'd hate to think ill of so many fellow citizens . . .

Originally posted to LondonYank on Wed Nov 03, 2004 at 02:34 AM PST.


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