Well, this is not the type of morning I hoped to wake up to. The wrong guy is on the cusp of winning, and my Republican mom has already sent a gloating note (screams classy, eh). I have to admit that I went to bed early last night. When the mountain states closed and the maps were a sea of that blood red, I had a bad sense. Kerry won the NE states as expected, but was not doing well enough in any of the swing states. Even by 10pm central, it was starting to look like a Kerry win would require a three bank shot.
More (including the questions).
So, here we are with a very high likelihood of Pres. Bush having been re-elected. Now what?
Some questions the social scientist in me wants to know:
- What happened to conventional wisdom of large turnout favoring Democrats? Did all the GOTV work trigger a counter mobilization?
- Why were the likely voter models wrong in the wrong direction? Conventional wisdom (or was it just hope) had them underestimating Kerry's share, but in the end they underestimated Bush's vote. And that was with the new voters.
- I like polls. I make my living with them. However, by 8:30 I was telling my wife that things were going terribly wrong if the polls were the baseline of comparison. Look at all the swing state polls from Sunday or Monday. The results are different in direction and magnitude (except PA).
- Process matters. I think this election, combined with 2000, screams for a tranparent NATIONAL voting method with universal rules for counting. Of course, since we just elected a states' rights president, that idea is shot to hell.
Some questions for the partisan:
- Let me get this straight - you can lie to start a war, loose jobs, bring God into the Oval Office with you, and seem to be proud of being blindly stubborn AND STILL GET RE-ELECTED? Can anybody tell me what you have to do to get fired?
- We seem likely to have a chief justice promotion and new justice confirmation coming soon. We are now down an additional 3 in the Senate. This may well happen while we are all off licking our wounds. That would be bad. The confirmation fight(s) must get our attention. Ideas on how to motivate and focus liberals and moderates on what is sure to be a rabid nomination must start now.
There is an entry on the main page right now that points out Tuesday was a battle in a larger war. This is very true. If the situation were reversed, Republicans would not be sitting by, pondering what went wrong. They would be screaming about the media, the process, cheaters (who oddly are nearly always minorities), and so forth. They would not be doing so to reverse the outcome, but rather to inncoulate their base with a dose of the special Kool-Aid. While I think this particular strategy is not for us, we do need to allocate a few hours to mope and then re-engage.
There are long and passionate discussions to have over what it means to be a Democrat, and what kind of Democrat can piece together a winning coalition. We should have those fights, but we should remember that, as we battle for the soul of the party (or movement, if you wish), the larger battle is with the other side - the side that screws the poor and working, the side that wants to return to a society that never existed (bad news for the poor, minorities, women, etc.).
We will have painful news from Iraq as more Americans die. Our general opposition to this war of false pretense will be portrayed as weakness. We must prepare to deflect that charge. We must find a way to convince moderates that awareness of a global society is not a sign of poor national security. I liked what Kerry said, but it did not seem to resonate. We must remain vigilent against the NeoCon expansion of their way to "new" threats.
We have a lot to do. Yesterday was less fun that getting your teeth kicked in. The stakes are so terribly high. Grab your kid (if you have one) and look into the eyes of the future. There is your motivation. Then harness your anger/fear/hopes and buckle in for a long ride. Starting today there are those on the right who will begin to rewrite history. Don't let them. Challenge every lie and distortion. Point every error. Don't feel bad about doing so. If Kerry had won, somebody would already be drafting articles of impeachment!