Comparing the popular vote in 2000 and 2004
Bush 2000: 50 million
Bush 2004: 59 million (as of mid-day Wed)
Gore 2000: 51 million
Kerry 2004: 55 million
So Bush netted 9 million more in 2004 than 2000; Kerry improved on Al Gore's numbers by only (!) 4 million.
Now, think about Rove's plans to turn out his 4M more evangelicals....
Even if Rove had succeeded, the result would have been a tie, give or take, in the popular vote. Bush got 5M more votes from somewhere else--other new voters, Gore voters who switched to Bush in 2004, etc. More analysis will give us a better picture of where these votes came from.
But I raise the issue now because I think it suggests--if hardly a glimmer of hope--at least reason not to sink into total despair. Bush's victory cannot be mainly attributed to a social conservative tidal wave.
Our job now is to make sure that Bush doesn't govern as if it were.