There is an article in the Des Moines Register about the Bush campaign here in Iowa that I think hits the nail on the head. Bush is up 13,600 in the current count, and it is very likely that it will hold up when the provisional ballots (about 15,000) and straggling absentee ballots (about 50,000 are outstanding) are added up. This is incredibly discouraging for all of us here that worked so hard, and there was an amazing number of volunteers (for this, I am really proud of Iowa). We could have been more organized and more efficient, but that was not why we lost.
How did Bush win when we had such a huge and successful GOTV campaign in central and eastern Iowa, where most of the votes are? The Democrats made substantial gains in the state legislature, increasing the number of House Democrats, and we tied it up in the state Senate for the first time in many years. But we lost the most important race this year, apparently because we ignored the reddest part of our state.
According to the DMR column (
http://www.dmregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20041104/NEWS09/411040402/1001&lead=1 ), Bush won because he gained 18,000 votes over his 2000 performance in the sparsely populated western region of the state, the Nebraska-like conservative portion, King's congressional district. Karl Rove targeted this area with many campaign stops and a focus on the christian right, the sheep. The Bush campaign in western Iowa went largely under the radar because it was using religious radio stations. The christian right were bombarded with fear commercials saying how Kerry would destroy THEIR moral values. They were highly motivated and turned out in droves.
Why can't we use this inexpensive form of advertising? Why didn't we use it? Radio commercials are cheap, and we could target these religious stations with the morality of our message, and the immorality of the Republicans. In the Bible belt, many households listen to this drivel all day. At least we would force them to think about both sides, including our anti-war and social justice stances, and we could demonize those that steal from the middle class and give to the rich. Maybe they would not vote for Democrats in huge numbers, but maybe they would not be so motivated to vote against us.