I know its two years away, but we need to already start looking at senate and governor races for 2006 that we can take.
I compiled a list of all the senate and governor races for 2006, especially in terms of likely takeover. Please share your thoughts and add suggestions.
Senate:
Tennessee-Bill Frist: Senate Majority Leader Frist had already said that he would not run for re-election after this term, which means that this seat could be a very lucrative opportunity for a open-seat pickup. I think Rep. Harold Ford from Nashville might be an excellent choice, as he cruised into his seat this year.
Missouri-Jim Talent- Got in last time after defeating Jean Carnahan who picked up her departed husband's seat after he won in 2000. Carnahan wasn't ever elected so she had problems with getting votes. Not necessarily this time, if we can get a dynamic Democrat who shares the values of a state that seems to be getting more conservative. Any ideas for canidates?
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Rhode Island-Lincoln Chafee- This moderate Republican may be switching parties in 2005, so we will have to see. Otherwise, he may retire if he stays Republican. He seems pretty burned out with his party. A solid pick up either way.
Pennsylvania-Rick Sanatorum- Unfortunately, popular uber-conservative jack ass, who may just be vulnerable enough for a really great Dem. candidate. Also, rumors that he might run for Governor against Ed Rendell could make this a double take.
Montana-Conrad Burns- Was surprisingly vulnerable in 2000 against Brian Shweitzer. Montana often picks conservative Dems, maybe we can get them to do it again.
Texas-Kay Bailey Hutchison- Some people think she might run for Governor in 2006. If that's the case, this could be a possible open seat pick-up. Maybe Rep. Jim Turner could pick this up, although it would be a battle.
Indiana-Robert Lugar- He is getting kinda old and may decide to retire, I really don't know who would run if he did.
Mississippi-Trent Lott- If he runs, he will probably win, but maybe a pick-up if he doesn't
Other Seats (Probably safe unless retirements):
Maine-Olympia Snowe-Fairly popular, but who knows?
Ohio-Mike DeWine-
Virginia-George Allen
Jon Kyl-Arizona
John Ensign-Nevada
Craig Thomas-Wyoming
Utah-Orrin Hatch
Dem/Ind. seats:
Fortunately, many of the Dem seats appear to be pretty safe, unless there are unexpected retirements for us with the exception of perhaps:
West Virginia-Robert Byrd-If his health allows him, than great, but at 88, he may be a retirement, and his seat would be very vulnerable in W. Virginia's leading conservatism.
Vermont-Jim Jeffords-This is an odd one, because some people are saying that if stayed independent he could have challengers from both a Republican and a Democrat, leading to vote leeching for him. I think he might want to declare a party.
New Jersey-John Corzine- If he runs for the New Jersey governor's house, then this might be a slightly vulnerable seat, though NJ is still definitely a "blue state." We will have to see.
Connecticut-Chris Dodd- Ditto
Governors:
I am especially looking at term limited governors, where we have an incredible opportunity with 8 open seats in 2006, with all but one being held by Republicans. And there are a few vulnerable incumbents out there too.
Republican:
Colorado-Bill Owens- Owens is term limited out, and everyone is already thinking of replacements. Ben Nighthorse-Campbell is a choice for the Republicans (one that I wouldn't mind horribly, as he his fairly moderate). Current Senator Allard is another possibilty. If that is the case we need make sure we take him down and his Senate seat as well. Dem Possibilties: Rep. Mark Udall, or former Denver Mayors Wellington Webb or Frederico Peña. Anyway, this is actually a dem-trending state, so this can be an excellent opportunity.
Arkansas- Mike Huckabee- Another term limited Gov. With possibilities. I am not sure who would run, but maybe Blanche Lincoln?
Florida-Jeb Bush-Finally, this asshole is termlimited, which means we have a golden opportunity to get a dynamic Dem. Governor for what is one of the most important states. Maybe Former Sen. Bob Graham? He showed he is still willing to run for president, so why not this extremely important post?
Connecticut- Jodi Rell- Replaced the forced to Resign John Rowland, but like Kos has already pointed out, Senator Chris Dodd could sweep in there, pretty easily and we could get a double gain.
Nevada-Kenny C. Guinn- Term limited Republican in a state that is trending Dem. If we got a moderate Dem to get out the votes, we can have another winner.
Nebraska-Mike Johanns- I think if Bob Kerry wanted to become a governor, this could be his opportunity.
Idaho-Dirk Kempthorne- I don't know that much about our opportunities here, but its another term limited seat with a possibility of takeover.
Massachusetts- Mitt Romney- This was a big upset in 2002, and I think we can make it one in 2006. Can anyone say Governor Kerry?
Dem:
Fortunately, the only open Democrat Governor is Mike Warner in Virginia. I think in moderate Virginia we can defend this one if we really work at it.
New Jersey, is actually going to have an election in 2005 after the outing and subsequent resignation of James E. McGreevey. I think we have a pretty good chance at keeping it Dem though.
We gotta fight hard for these seats, but I think that we can do this if we really work at it. Let's start planning now so we can be prepared for the Republican onslaught later on.