The Republicans are having to make incredible improvements in their GOTV to keep up with the natural upsurge in young and diverse voters for the Democrats. Non-Hispanic whites are gradually stepping away from the Party of the Jim Crow Refugees. Republicans are finding and identifying new wedge issues, anything to keep America on edge and divided against itself, anything to squeeze more out of a demographic that increasingly has no interest nor awe of race-based politics.
This dairy is about what we're going to see in the next few years, the opportunities and the challenges. It's a sketch, a road map for contemplating the possibilities.
And they are quite nice. We might not even have to wait that long to collect.
I combined race population data for the upcoming half-century (by state), and correlated the proportions in each category with the votes for Bush in 2000 and 2004, respectively. From these, I made forecasts on (a) change in the proportion of each demographic likely to vote Republican in a presidential election, and (b) assess overall electoral performance accordingly.
The initial results are quite interesting.
What the Pubs did right
- A radical improvement in their voter turnout from 2000.
- Strong improvement among Asians, and all persons of partly Asian ancestry.
- Improvement among both Hispanic Whites, and white persons of mixed Hispanic and non-Hispanic background.
- The Pubs overachieved in the states including California, Hawaii, and Virginia.
- Despite what can only be described as a cross-grained approach to the dominant secular culture of the United States, the GOP won despite increasing resistance to their platform -- resistance now emerging from unlikely corners.
What the Pubs lost
- New England; the Pubs egregiously underperformed their demographic in this region of the country.
- Ditto for the Pacific Northwest.
- And likewise for the MN-IA-WS triad.
- Republicans were compelled to exert themselves to retain a number of putatively safe states including Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Nevada, and Ohio.
- Republicans, despite outreach efforts, lost ground with Native Americans.
- They lost with Hispanics of African or partly-African ancestry
- They lost with persons declaring mixed white and African-American heritage.
- They lost further with African-Americans.
- They lost ground with non-Hispanic whites.
Yes, that's right. With non-Hispanic whites.
On balance
The Republicans will eventually gain ground with Asians and Hispanics and newer generations of non-Hispanic whites, neither desirous of nor impressed by codeword race-baiting, will gradually drift away from the current-edition GOP, and this process is starting right now.
The Republicans will eventually leave their Jim Crow Refugee days behind, but that departure will be as slow as the passing of the Boomer generation, which has as many bigots as it has activists, something none of that generation need be told.
Forecast for the future
So long as RedBlueThink prevails, there will be not only a continuation but an expansion of battleground states, and an increase in the native volatility of electoral forecasting.
This condition will greatly favor wedge-issue politics and negative campaigning, as well as drive up the cost of running a successful campaign. A few billion dollars? Try a few dozen billion next time, and a few hundred billion not beyond the realm of possibility. This is, after all, warfare by other means, for the greatest prize of all.
As of 2005, there were 12 states where the outcome was decided by approximately 5% or less.
By 2020, there could be as many as 20 states in that condition (I would guess 17).
It might seem that the battleground is moving into the redder regions of the country.
However, that motion could just as easily reverse itself, throwing Washington and and Delaware into play just as easily as Arkansas and Virginia.
In the long run (post-2020), the cards will sort out, and then will begin in earnest the end days of the conservative dominance of the Republican party, and by extension of the form and character of American politics.
Figure this - the likely battleground states of 2020 are Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Louisiana, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington, Wisconsin. With some effort, Maine and Michigan can be dragged into the fray, likewise (brace yourself) Mississippi and South Carolina.
The Republicans lick their chops at the prospect of a radical rightward realignment.
They might play the division game well, but they will be masters of nothing but a divided kingdom for as long as they choose to spend the spiraling billions to retain it.
And they will never feel safe in their mastery, and while more battelgrounds may favor the Pubs in presidential elections, it will do wonders for Democratic prospects in Congress.
And when it comes down to it, the contest for the White House is a straight up-down comparison of the merits of individuals.
I suspect we will eventually find the recruits we need to field a superior top ticket to that provided by the GOP.
Perhaps we already have, and must do no more than dust ourselves off, regroup, and challenge anew.
It's going to be okay.
Very long run
As Republicans release their codeword mantra of race-based politics, their grasp on the votes of many non-Hispanic whites will relax, as well. Freed of that complex by reduced propaganda and younger, fresher, minds, the nation in all its diversity, white as well as nonwhite, will vote on issues other than continent of origin. This will be better for the Democrats than for the Republicans electorally, since the right has had more of a need for the crutch of race than the left ever did. However, it will be good for the GOP, as well, to set the Jim Crow refugees adrift and outside of American politics for keeps.
And that will be good for us all.
I suspect the GOP will have what it imagines to be a good run of it for the next couple of decades; they've been working for this moment for quite some time.
But if they think we are going to roll for them, they've got another thing coming.
And if they overreach themselves, we'll make it hell for them for sure, and make our return all the sooner.
As for tactics, I think the Democrats have good game, and proved it. The Republicans never expected such a tough contest, never would have imagined to be found vulnerable in so many areas.
Regardless, they took the trophy.
But if they plan on having any more of them, they'd better bring their "A" game next time, all the time.
Because we are, indeed, motivated.