By the end of the day on Tuesday, November 9, newspaper headlines and website front pages all over Washington (hell, all over the country) will be flashing the news that Dino Rossi has edged ahead of Christine Gregoire in their tight race.
The reason is very simple. Ballot count updates are due today from the following counties:
Asotin, Benton, Chelan, Clallam, Douglas, Grant, Island, Kitsap, Kittitas, Lincoln, Mason, Pend Oreille (actually, they're way overdue to report on their last 50 ballots), Pierce, Skagit, Stevens, Walla Walla, Yakima
Based on the already-recorded tallies, Gregoire currently leads in exactly zero of those 17 counties. Not only that, 11 of the 20 wingnut counties east of the Cascades are reporting today, versus just six of the 19 counties west of the mountains (nearly all of which are usually break-even or better for Democrats).
So Rossi will be ahead tonight. The real story may come 24 hours later, when seven of the eight counties where Gregoire now leads will send in their next reports. Yes, that includes King County.