The possibility of fraud in North Carolina has been a huge issue on left wing sites for the last twenty-four hours or so.
Here's the original diary on the issue, and the thread over at DU.
Unfortunately, the initial diary has become a source of contention. There are now close to 400 responses and keeping track of the discussion has grown rather difficult. This here will be an update of the discussion for viewing simplicity.
To summarize, Markus suggested that early voting showed equal proportional turnout from the Democrats and Republicans. Early on, Bowles and Kerry were doing well in the state, however, come election day things turned around and both lost by a large margin. Markus suggested that was an indication of fraud. Initially, there was a large swell of support, however, there were soon question about the validity of the assertation that equal percentage of Republicans and Democrats showed up. If more Democrats had voted early, then the fact that Bush and Burr made large gains on election day would be completely expected.
Safenukes posted internal information from the North Carolina Democratic Party earlier tonight:
Total Voted = 970,894
- Democrat = 477,298 (49.2%) +2.2% over registration
- Republicans = 358,930 (37%) +1.9% over registration
- Undeclared = 134,666 (13.9%)
Those numbers include 132K absentee ballots and over 800K early ballots. According to the totals, Democrats won early voting by a massive amount. Way more Democrats voted early than Republicans.
Still, some people pointed to the fact that way more people are more votersregistered as Democrats in North Carolina. However, for some reason these bafoons don't vote. 2000 turounout and 2004. Despite having a huge advantage in registration, it doesn't turn up in the polls.
What we are left with is the fact that early on things appeared to be going well across the board for the Democrats in North Carolina. However, on election day things turned against Erskine Bowles and Senator Kerry. At the same time, may other races stayed the course.
GOVERNOR (Absentee)
Mike Easley (DEM): 573,120 (55.6%)
Patrick J. Ballantine (REP): 445,505 (43.2%) -12.4
Other: 12,490 (1.2%)
GOVERNOR (Overall)
Mike Easley (DEM): 1,939,137 (55.6%)
Patrick J. Ballantine (REP): 1,495,032 (42.9%) -12.7
Other: 52,512 (1.5%)
GOVERNOR (Poll only)
Mike Easley (DEM): 1,366,017 (55.6%)
Patrick J. Ballantine (REP): 1,049,527 (42.7%) -12.9
Other: 40,022 (1.6%)
PRESIDENT (absentee)
George W. Bush: 529,755 52.9%
John F. Kerry: 469,522 46.9% -6.0
Others: 2749 0.2%
PRESIDENT (overall)
George W. Bush: 1,961,188 56.0%
John F. Kerry: 1,525,821 43.6% -12.4
Others: 13,989 0.4%
PRESIDENT (poll only)
George W. Bush: 1,431,433 57.3%
John F. Kerry: 1,056,299 42.3% -15.0
Others: 11,240 0.4%
SENATOR (absentee)
Richard Burr (REP): 492,166 49.48%
Erskine Bowles (DEM): 492,536 49.52% .04
Other: 9,917 1%
SENATOR (overall)
Richard Burr (REP): 1,791,460 51.6%
Erskine Bowles (DEM): 1,632,509 47.0% -4.6
Other: 48,103 1.4%
SENATOR (poll only)
Richard Burr (REP): 1,299,294 52.4%
Erskine Bowles (DEM): 1,139,973 46.0% -6.4
Others: 38,186 1.5%
ATTORNEY GENERAL (absentee)
Roy Cooper (DEM): 546,477 (56.7%)
Joe Knott (REP): 417,824 (43.3%)
ATTORNEY GENERAL (overall)
Roy Cooper (DEM): 1,869,699 (55.6%)
Joe Knott (REP): 1,493,061 (44.4%)
ATTORNEY GENERAL (poll-only)
Roy Cooper (DEM): 1,323,222 (55.2%)
Joe Knott (REP): 1,075,237 (44.8%)
There are around a dozen more races, all listed in the originals. Some show the pattern stayed the same, others showed a change. Additionally, there are still some questions about the continuity of the exit polls (if someone has those please post them, I can't find any). As of right now, there is no conclusive evidence in either direction - even though some, myself included, clearly have come to their own conclusions.