From today's
Wahington Post:
Current polls give Kerry a minuscule lead. Sig Rogich, a veteran Republican consultant from Nevada, said he is unconcerned because "you often see the incumbent running behind at this point in the cycle. The Democrats have been beating him over the head for months, and he is just now starting his campaign."
That may be true...
But it is false. Flat out wrong. A lie.
- In 1980, Carter led Reagan until June and then again from August through most of October (link)
- In 1984, a March poll showed Reagan leading Mondale, 50 percent to 45 percent (link)
- In 1988, there was no incumbent running for President
- In 1992, the elder Bush led Mr. Clinton into June (link)
- In 1996, Clinton lead Dole by 9% in March (link)
- In 2000, there was no incumbent running for President
It is hard to find polls for elections prior to 1980 because the primary process dragged out so much later then. For example, Ford didn't beat out Reagan as the nominee in 1976
until August.
So in the last 4 cases where the current President was running, the incumbent was leading at this point EVERY TIME.
Now, you can say that he was talking about non-Presidential incumbents, but non-Presidential races aren't anything like the Presidency. The consultant doesn't cite any facts, so it is impossible to put his statement into context. I have seen this same conclusion reported several times and each time, the media reports it as gospel. Why the media belives anything a Republican says is beyond me.