For all of our legitimate apprehensions about what Bush II will mean for America---indeed, for the world---I think we
may be jumping the gun on one aspect of it: his rhetorical promise to remake America in the image of the Christian Right. Indeed, as history shows us from at least the past few decades, the new GOP lineup, from Bush on down to his Congressional leaders and state governors,
will almost certainly disappoint the churchgoing 'wingers who voted their approval of the man many of them consider to be the "first real Christian President" we've had.
There is much evidence to consider. Back in the early eighties, the Falwell/Robertson crowd was initally
quite hostile to Ronald Reagan's appointment of Sandra Day O'Connor to the Supreme Court. They wanted someone more reactionary and conservative, more Biblical in her zeal to promote Christian-only values in the land. She is considered the most powerful "Swing" voter on the Court today, often voting in ways that only frustrate the Wingers.
Currently they find Arlen Specter's pro-choice views unacceptable. He has speculated in the press that judges who differ with him on reproductive rights, for example, will find it nigh impossible to get confirmed while he leads the Judiciary Committee. His recent confirmation to that appointment seems pretty solid, despite Bush's bonafides with James Dobson and his crowd. This type of thing will happen again and again, because Bush, Rove, etc. do not walk it like the Christian Right talks it. Oh, sure, they're business-like in their use of religious language and feeling to win elections---but when it comes right down to legislation and executive decisions, the GOP will choose pragmatism over ideological purity every single time.
Voting to eliminate Roe v. Wade, for instance, would almost certainly awaken a vast, slumbering portion of the electorate---not necessarily a purely Democratic one, either. Many Republicans who share Specter's views (including GOP Senators and House members) would probably withhold their votes in 2006, which would tip the houses of Congress back our way and presage a new Democratic White House victory after that. Rove is no genius, contrary to the SCLM press he's been getting, but he is cunning enough to know when he's licked; surely he's read enough history, especially political history, to understand that imperial overreach could (and will) eventually overtake even his golden boy, Dubya.
I'm not suggesting that we're in no danger here, but I'm also not yet worried that they're going to completely rewrite the Constitution in this next term. I live in Texas, and I know some of his supporters who think Bush doesn't go far enough in his religious views! They may be onto something; I don't think Bush is sincere about his Christian aspirations; like any salesman, he says a lot of things he doesn't believe in order to close the deal, and this is an example of that.
We will still have to fight one nearly impossible battle after another in the coming four years to hold onto the ground we still have left---but we will come through it in 2008 largely intact. The religious right can't simply relax and let everything happen because, like Reagan and Bush's dad before him, their current standard-bearer can't deliver on everything he has promised to them---and more importantly, he won't even try to do so if it interferes with his more purely secular goals.
Alas, now we get to find out whether I'm right. On the other hand, we'd still have this battle to fight if Kerry had been elected---but it's important not to give into despair here. Kerry's election alone would not promise us victory any more than Bush's election alone promises us downfall here. A simple majority in Congress isn't enough to get your own way all the time, as Newt Gingrich famously found out.