Now that McGreevey is gone, the 2005 New Jersey gubenatorial race is wide open, which might be good for the Democrats. McGreevey's sex scandal was the least of his problems, for he and his administration were corrupt. I can only guess that more scandals like the Charles Kushner-call girl fiasco would hurt him in the next year.
But that's all irrelevant now. For the Democrats, acting governor Richard Codey seems like a viable candidate. It also seems like Jon Corzine might give it a shot.
On the Republican side, Doug Forrester has already began overtly campagining. Forrester ran for Senate in 2002, and was leading in the polls against Torricelli, until Torricelli dropped out in disgrace. Lautenberg took the departing senator's place, and trounced Forrester by 10 points. Forrester is promising to clean up Trenton (he is already advertising on television), but this guy's pitch is phonier than John Kerry duck hunting in Ohio. Forrester is going to be the biggest obstructionist if he ever gets to Trenton.
This summer and autumn, Forrester put his face on an advertisement which called for Dan Rather to leave CBS News. It is clear that he badly wants to be governor. That's too bad, because this guy is
wrong for New Jersey.
Other Republican hopefuls include Bret Schundler, Chris Christie, and Diane Allen. Schundler, who McGreevey walloped by 15 points in the 2001 governor's race already has a campaign website up. Although Schundler is not as offensive as Forrester, he is still wrong for New Jersey.
The bad news is that Forrester's appeal might play in a state known for its corrupt politicians. The good news is that Corzine is immune to that attack. Corzine is as much an outsider in Trenton as Forrester is. And Corzine is kicking his butt in a recent Quinnipiac University poll.
If Corzine runs, the race is over. Don't send Corzine any money, because he doesn't need it. A decent gotv and mail effort and Corzine will win by 15 points. If Corzine does not run, and Codey does, Codey will be favored, but the race will be close. I would expect Codey to beat Schundler or Forrester by 3-5 points. If Codey runs instead of Corzine, New Jersey will be a hot race in 2005.
A Corzine victory will allow him to appoint an interim senator. He will have an important choice to make. He can have a Democratic primary-by-appointment by hand picking the man he want to replace him in 2006, or he can pick a Bill Bradley to fill the position for a year so that the Democratic primary process may run its course.
If Corzine runs and wins, and picks someone like Bradley to finish out his term, the Senate race in 2006 opens up a bit. All the NJ Reps except Pascrell (not pro-choice enough) and Holt (seat is too vulnerable) might be in the mix, but Pallone and Menendez will probably be favored. Pat Croce could be a wildcard here (he is worshipped as a god across south Jersey). On the Republican side, expect Forrester and Schundler to try (and fail) again. Bernard Kerik might run for the Republicans.
I welcome your comments.