Converting GOP Senators

Just prior to the election, there was an NY Times article about Lincoln Chafee, the uber-moderate Senator from RI (R), with some speculation as to whether he would switch parties. Now there's a dust-up over Arlen Specter and his pro-choice stance.

Does anyone know here about the possibility that either of these two (or anyone else-- perhaps in the House as well, though I imagine that's likely) would switch parties? How does this happen? When would it happen? Would the Democrats have to offer Committee seats? Could they?

Any information will be greatly appreciated.

•  Good point.

  Are there other moderate Republican Senators who might want to distance themselves from the wing-nuts?

  by Omar on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 11:57:36 AM PDT

  •  Olympia Snowe

    -fink

    by fink on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 12:13:12 PM PDT

•  Snowe and Collins

  both social moderates, both from a blue state, both historically open to bipartisanship and also bucking the party leadership when they can...

  by torridjoe on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 11:59:24 AM PDT

  •  What's the benefit?

    For anyone to swicth and become part of the minority?

    If the margin was closer, there is a benefit.

    by LiveFreeOrDie on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 01:14:00 PM PDT

•  Fairly Simple

  All they would have to do is announce that they are changing parties and start caucusing with the Democrats. Zell Miller caucused with the Republicans, while continuing to claim to be a Democrat. Jim Jeffords caucuses with the Democrats, while calling himself an Independent. Party labels are whatever the Senators make of them. Mark Dayton, from Minnesota, was elected in MN as a DFLer (which is the state affiliate of the Dems), but he's just a D in the Senate.

  As for how it would happen, they'd likely be wooed by Reid, who managed to convince Jeffords to switch.

  As to whether it would happen, that's unlikely. Think about getting pork for your home state and think about trying to do it after gaining the ire of the party that controls all of Washington.

  Maybe if we had won. There's no way now that we've lost big.

  by Left in the West on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 12:00:07 PM PDT

  •  Well, if

    they're all from True Blue states, than clearly a lot of dems are voting for them. The party need sto make it very clear to dems in these states the importance of the "big picture." Either they switch, or they go.

    by Rhett on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 12:05:31 PM PDT

•  We need a concerted effort

  to get Snowe, Chaffe, and Specter... anyone in these states know the feasibility of this?

  by Rhett on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 12:00:16 PM PDT

  •  Eh

    Specter would be exceedingly unlikely.  Snow is unlikely, but within the realm of possibility.  Chaffe depends on how cordial Republicans are to him and how much they plan to reach for power.  He's the most likely, but i'd hesitate to say it's more likely than not.

    Remember Lincy, we loves ya here.

    by Croatoan on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 12:03:11 PM PDT

    •  Sen. Chafee considers leaving GOP

      
      L I N K

      
      Posted 11/3/2004 11:06 AM 

      PROVIDENCE (AP) -- Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee said he would consider switching parties if President Bush is re-elected.

      "I'm not ruling it out," Chafee told The Providence Journal.

      Chafee, known for moderate views that often run counter to the Bush administration, also said he cast a write-in vote for Bush's father, George H.W. Bush, in Tuesday's election. He said it was a "symbolic protest."

      The Republican senator said it would have been impossible to vote for President Bush given their opposite views on issues such as abortion, gay marriage, the deficit, tax cuts, the environment and the war in Iraq.

      Chafee has opposed the administration's push to drill in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and has criticized Bush's handling of the postwar reconstruction of Iraq. He was the only Republican senator to vote against the October 2002 resolution that gave Bush the authority to invade Iraq.

      Chafee told the newspaper that he didn't plan to change parties "at this minute."

      "I'll have to look and see what happens tonight (Tuesday), the makeup of everything," he said.

      After winning races Tuesday in Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina and Louisiana, Republicans were assured of 53 Senate seats.

      Undecided races in Florida and Alaska would determine the final sweep of victory for Republicans, who currently have a 51-48 margin, with one Democratic-leaning independent.

      Chafee, who was appointed to the Senate in November 1999 to fill the seat when his father, John, died, said if he were to change parties, "it would be with great sadness."

      He said he much preferred the elder Bush to his son because the 41st president took steps to make sure the deficit didn't grow and was more of an environmentalist.

      Chafee said ever since President Bush has been in office "it's been an agenda of energizing the far-right-wing base, which is divisive."

      A message left for Chafee at his Rhode Island office Wednesday wasn't immediately returned.

      I heard it said that he's expressed reluctance to do this while his mother is still alive. (!)
      

      by bumblebums on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 12:16:10 PM PDT

      •  slightly more recent article

        GOP Senator Weighing Switch To Democrats

        (Washington)  Rhode Island Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee is reportedly considering jumping to the Democratic Party.

        New London, Conn. newspaper The Day reports that Chafee is unhappy with the GOP under President Bush, which he says has moved too far to the right.

        "Clearly we're trying to digest the situation," Chafee spokesperson Stephen Hourhan told the paper. "Ultimately, it's a question of what he wants to do and when he wants to do it."

        U.S. Sen. Christopher Dodd, (D-Conn.) told The Day that Democrats would welcome Chafee with open arms.

        Dodd said some in the party are probably already trying to encourage his defection.

        "He's a fine senator, he has a lot of independence," Dodd said. "He may find it more comfortable to be with us Democrats."

        Following Tuesday's election Republicans have 55 Senate seats with 44 for the Democrats and 1 independent who usually votes with the Democrats.

        Prior to the election Chaffee, 51, a lifelong Republican who has often been at odds with the Bush administration, said he would not vote for the President.

        Although he had been a supporter of Bush's father, Chafee said it would have been impossible to vote for George W. Bush because of the President's positions on abortion, gay marriage, the deficit, tax cuts, the environment and the war in Iraq.

        Several days before the election Chafee said that ever since Bush has been in office, "it's been an agenda of energizing the far-right-wing base, which is divisive."

        
        

        by bumblebums on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 12:23:16 PM PDT

•  This is more likely to happen if...

  we can elect a few more dems to the senate next time. Get the count to something like 49-51 favoring the Repubs, and we have a better chance of flipping one of the moderates.

  by dfields on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 12:03:38 PM PDT

•  They won't flip

  Unless it means we'll be the majority. Otherwise, they'll stay Republicans but work "across party lines," so to speak. This way, they can say how bipartisan they are when reelection comes in 2006.

  by ptmflbcs on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 12:06:37 PM PDT

  •  I agree

    If they are from a conservative state, I would rather see a Republican-in-name-only who votes with the democrats.
    They would stand a better chance of getting reelected than someone who changed parties, causing a ton of negative press for the gop, making them more determined than ever to defeat them the first time they run for reelection as a democrat, replacing them with someone more willing to tow the party line.

    by Kelly Helene on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 12:15:27 PM PDT

  •  branding

    They might flip if libs jumped on the labeling train, spreading the theme coast to coast.

    We've all heard the labels repubs use for liberals. Tree hugger, peacenik, pinko commie ( Uh, the Cold war is OVER ) none of which are really degrading, some actually complimentary. On the flip side telling the truth about repubs: Liars, hypocrites, cheats etc are all labels no one wants to be saddled with.

    For starters, I'm thinking of a bumper sticker along the lines of:
    God gave me the grace to recognize republicans are liars and cheats...How about You?

    by primate on the left on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 12:22:56 PM PDT

•  Switching parties is tough

  Very hard thing to do and it has to be a political decision as well as an ideological one. You gotta know that you can survive and get re-elected as an independent or member of the other party.

  Had we maintained our slight minority in the Senate I think we would have gotten Chaffee to switch to independent. Right now the risk-reward ratio is 100% to 0%. If he switches it makes to difference whatsoever. He gains nothing, we gain nothing, and he risks everything to do it.

  However, when he comes up for re-election I suspect he will be challenged by a right wing supported candidate in the Republican party. At that point the risk-reward analysis changes and he may well switch if it gains him the full suppport of the Democratic Party.

  This could happen earlier but it would be at the doing of the Republicans rather than us. We have nothing to offer at the moment but the Republicans could well chase people like Lincoln Chaffee and Arlen Spector out of their party by doing what Dr. James Dobson is trying to do to Spector. Let's pray that they do. Let's hope that the complete wing-nuts get soooo drunk on power and hubris that they chase sane people like Jeffords, Chaffee, Spector (and perhaps the two gentleladies from Maine) out of their party and into our welcome arms.

  Rather than party switching I am hoping for folks like them to abstain or vote with us when we filibuster.

  by Andrew C White on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 12:12:06 PM PDT

  •  The one political gain.

    You point out the one political gain: avoiding hard-right challenges in the primaries, a la Toomey vs. Specter. It seems pretty clear based on what people have said that switches are unlikely right now, but if there's any chance perhaps it's through assurances from the Dems that the party would support them for re-election-- a promise some Republicans are not willing to offer right now.

    by jimrice on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 12:17:30 PM PDT

    •  Exactly

      and this is in fact a potential wedge to (help) drive into the Republican party.

      The right wingnuts backed Toomey. Bush ended up backing Spector because Toomey was too right wing even for them (that's a scary thought right there).

      Now right wingers like Dobson are mad at Spector and are going after him. I hope they do. I hope they go after him and Chaffee and Snow and Collins and Lugar and every other relatively sane Republican and allow their hubris to divide their party irrepairably.

      Let them eat their own and drive the rest to us.

      by Andrew C White on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 12:28:39 PM PDT

  •  Chafee

    Chafee's seat is fairly safe from a Republican challenger.  Lincoln Chafee is probably the only Republican in RI who can win a Senate election with the possible exception of Governor Carcieri.  If the RI GOP takes him down and puts up the wingnut mayor of Cranston in his place, the Democratic candidate wins in a landslide (unless maybe it's Patrick Kennedy).

    The question is how much trouble is Chafee's vote for Frist worth to the GOP?  How much is his vote for cloture worth?  If it's not much, then they may just take their chances.

    by Jugwine on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 12:39:28 PM PDT

    •  The right wing

      is attempting to take complete control of the government. I will be suprised if they don't challenge Chaffee. Their arrogance blinds them and will eventually drive them to self-destruct. The question is how much damage they will do before they implode the american people drive them out of town.

      by Andrew C White on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 01:09:29 PM PDT

•  The best way to make them convert.

  We need to bring up the "values" issues which, before Nov. 3, were known as wedge issues. I'm trying to keep them high on the agenda. IMHO, these issues are worse for the Republicans than they are for the Dems. We're not divided by gay marriage, abortion rights, evolution in schools and all the other jesusfreak issues. Chafee et al would bolt the party if we keep these issues around.

  That's why Rove is downplaying the "values" story this week.

  -fink

  by fink on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 12:16:19 PM PDT

  •  also have to promise primary support

    If these people switched, they'd be vulnerable to a "real liberal" challenge in the Democratic primary next time around.  The national party would have to promise to protect them in return for them switching.

    by Delirium on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 12:20:02 PM PDT

    •  Wouldn't affect Chafee

      The name, Chafee, is powerful in Rhode Island. And becoming a democrat can only help him in a blue state like RI. In fact, I think it would help him a lot more when it comes to re-election. He might just lose to Patrick Kennedy in a general election. But I don't think he'd lose to him in a Democratic primary.

      Snowe and Collins are different matters, but Maine is kind of a maverick state--they elected an independent as governor a few years back--and I think Mainers tend to vote the person more than the party. I also don't see Maine Repubs as, generally, cultural conservatives. They tend to be more like NH Repubs--almost libertarians who vote more about taxes. I think if Snowe and/or Collins framed a switch of parties as "We disagree with the national Republican party invading your bedrooms" that would do them just fine for future elections in Maine.

      by ChurchofBruce on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 12:41:21 PM PDT

•  we need to get them ALL to switch

  What if they ALL switched at once? Specter, Chafee, Collins, Snowe that would be four seats right there are there any others?

  by OldDemocrat on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 12:16:31 PM PDT

•  We do NOT want Specter to change parties.

  Otherwise he can no longer be chair of the judicial committee, and they could fill it with someone much, much worse.  He's more useful to us as a Republican.

  by lemuel on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 12:19:23 PM PDT

  •  Good point

    In 2006 if we gain the majority wouldn't there be shifts for these committees?

    by primate on the left on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 12:27:19 PM PDT

  •  He supported Thomas and Scalia

    Specter isn't any good to us.  He made one comment about Roe v. Wade and now everyone of us is saying he's our savior.  He's still a Republican, just not as wingnutty as Santorum, DeMint, Martinez, or Coburn.  He's not a moderate Republican really.  He just happens to be pro-choice - when it's convenient.

    -Fred

    by FredFred on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 12:44:41 PM PDT

    •  I think you made my point.

      If Specter wasn't the chair, it could be someone like Santorum or Coburn.

      by lemuel on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 01:46:39 PM PDT

•  specter already did switch parties

  from democrat to republican -- many years ago

  by bjeanh1 on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 12:23:17 PM PDT

•  specter

  The Republicans are already threatening about keeping Specter from heading the Judiciary committee. Seems they were upset that he had the set to advise Bush not to appoint such extreme Supreme court justices. They are grumbling really loud, I wouldn't be surprised if they succeeded in keeping him from heading that committee.

  by zha zha zha on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 12:26:13 PM PDT

  •  If they do

    prevent him from being chairman of the judiciary committee, there's a not small  chance he'll just retire and let Rendell (a long-time friend who actually started his career working for Specter) appoint a replacement.  Specter has no sense of loyalty, for better and for worse.  And I don't think he would have run for reelection if not to get to chair Judiciary.

    by sickandtired on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 12:38:48 PM PDT

•  Republican party breakup

  Eventually the Republican party is going to collapse under its own weight. Chafee, Snowe Collins, Specter are not going to feel very comfortable in the party of Coburn and DeMint. The Democratic Party need to be there to pick up the pieces. What I would like to see is a much larger realignment that I believe is inevitable. Instead of just getting the 3 or 4 most moderate senators, I'd like to add all the reasonable Republicans, regardless of ideology. That would include Hagel, Lugar, Voinovich, McCain. These people all will eventually be convinced that the Republican party has become too extreme and must be stopped. When this happens, I think the 40 or 50 most moderate Republicans in the House will switch as well.

  When is this going to happen? Not in the short term. There will have to be some catalytic event but I would say there is at least a 10 percent chance it will happen in the next 4 years.

  by J mid on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 12:34:10 PM PDT

•  I don't see it happening

  Given that the Democrats are the minority party and don't have as much oomph, there isn't going to be much advantage to switching right now. The only possible advantage for Chafee or Snowe would thus be avoiding a tough Democratic challenge in a blue state, and that probably won't be enough to convince them right now, since they're both relatively popular, I believe.

  Of course, they may well use the threat of switching to their advantage with the Republicans. But that's not necessarily to our benefit.

  by soultaco on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 12:41:24 PM PDT

  •  so let's

    put the fear of God in them.  Find the biggest D names in the state and start pouring money into their senate coffers.

    by jimmything2681 on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 12:59:40 PM PDT

•  question

  How many senators have ever switched parties from the majority to the minority?  I just can't imagine it has happened very often.  THere just isn't a whole lot of benefit to that move.

  by Damon on Mon Nov 08, 2004 at 01:04:26 PM PDT