(Cross-posted from
Moon of Alabama)
Russia is only of significance to the West for a small number of reasons:
- veto on the Security Council, and still a pretty active diplomacy
- lots of nukes around that need to be kept secure
- it's a neighboor to pretty much everybody and gets involved in most local disputes in Europe and Asia.
- it has a nuisance capacity by being friendly to rogue regimes (friendly meaning providing diplomatic support (cf first point above) and weapons, and the odd nuke)
- it sells a LOT of gas to Europe (and is now making noises about LNG that could also go to the US)
- it exports of lot of oil, which until recently, and pretty unusually for a non OECD country, was produced by private, quoted companies (i.e. with US shareholders).
So what's really important in that? What do Bush, Chirac, Blair, Schroder and others want form Russia, and do they get it?
Bush - with Condi being a Cold War specialist, and the whole administration loving power games, relations with Russia are quite simple. They are on the same side of history, the past, where might is right. (Russia is weak; noisy, but weak. So it's easy)
They can deal with Russia - you support us on the WoT, we let you do you stuff (genocide, remember) in Chechnya. You sort of scream on Iraq, but don't really do anything about it, and we'll let you in the game later. You produce oil in increasing quantities, which is good (non-Arab oil is very good), so we'll let you take back the oil companies from their owners (so long as the US investors are compensated and US majors get a slice on the way). We'll push you around a little in Georgia and Ukraine, but hey, it's business, nothing personal, we know you'd do the same (as a matter of fact, you're trying) and nothing much you can do about it - take your nerves on the silly Europeans...
Putin is happy, because, despite the occasional shafting on the borders of the former Soviet Union, he gets a good deal out of it: his authority within Russia is not contested (forget those pesky political opponents), he is taken seriously on the world stage, and he gets a seat at the geopolitical grand table with his oil and pipelines. The USA play a game he can understand - and when you consider the terribly weak state of the country, the results are not so bad.
Chirac - he'd love a Russia that stands up to the USA, and is one of the poles of his "multipolar world. He enjoys power politics with the big countries, it's more fun than defending stupid agricultural subsidies against Dutch or Slovenian bureaucrats. Any photo-op that makes him look standing up against the villain Bush with the mighty tsar Putin (don't forget the aura that remains for words like "Kremlin", "tsar", etc) is popular at home and around the world.
Putin indulges him up to a point (but he's careful never to do anything that would really piss Bush off; these photo ops don't really count, Condi knows that). Better let these crazy French do the dirty job of saying loud what everybody thinks but does not dare tell the bully...
Schroeder - apart from the games when Chirac pulls him in, he has more down to earth worries: making sure that Russia pays its debt (60% of which is owed to Germany), that Russia delivers its gas that Germany - and the neighbors - needs (more than 30% - and growing - of its needs for Germany, 60 to 100% for Central Europe), and that Russia behaves viz. the new small friends to the East. If he can get business for the big German companies, that's nice too. So Schroeder tries to keep Putin more or less happy, and tries to explain to him how the European bureaucracy works, and asks that he does not complain too much about Chechnya or other nasty stuff, so long as it does not happen to EU or near-EU countries (the Balts or Georgia).
Putin, he's happy to keep Schroeder happy (in fact, he's pretty desperate to, as the gas exports to Europe make 25% of the whole country's exports, and 20% of his government's income - he cannot believe that he gets such an easy deal there). Schroeder helps him with those stupid Brussels bureaucrats who don't know a thing about Russia but want to decide what he and his friends and companies can and cannot do; (Actually, they do decide about these things, and they reflect the consensus of most European governments; Putin - as most Russians and Americans - really does not understand how Brussels work and how pervasise its influence is - it's so much easier to deal with Schroeder, schmooze him, maks him feel respected). If Schroeder is pissed at him, he makes friends with Blair and snubs him and that always works (ahh, divide and rule, so simple, Bush knows that as well - but it is getting harder in Europe these days). Luckily, they get all worked up about that crazy Kyoto stuff. This has been sooo useful in recent times to get goodies from all of them.
Blair - who cares about Blair these days?
(Sorry, could not resist. I am French, after all; The short version is: see Chirac. Different motivations, same results).
Others? Well China is a whole other story. (another time) Iran? See below.
So, what about Ukraine? Well, for Russians, Ukraine is not just the former soviet Union, it is, in the Russian soul, part of Russia. So it should be off limits to everybody else. They cannot believe that Europe is so interested in the election there, it's none of their business! The USA they can understand, they are always trying to nibble when they can, but that can be dealt with. Europe - it's suddenly getting too damn close for confort; hence the outraged screams.
The fact is, Russia is in tough situation.
- natural gas is a co-dependency relationship; Big pipelines mean that the supplier (Russia) has one client (Europe), and the client has one supplier; so they are stuck with one another and cannot do anything that would jeopardise that fundamental fact. sure, there's a lot of theater, jockeying around, politicking, but essentially, it's a draw.
- oil. again, Russia is heavily dependent on the stuff, so it's not a painless weapon for them. Jacking up production is still a good way to matter worldwide, earning cookie points with the US and a bundle of $ as well, but it keeps the corruption going and it prevents real reform of the rest of the economy. There's the pipeline games in the Caspian, but this is a game Russia has lost (they've won the game on the gas side) - to build a new pipe, you need a reliable partner, and Russia is not a reliable partner for these things (too much tinkering) - so new pipelines are built elsewhere to avoid the hassle (on the gas side, Russia won because the pipelines are already there) - even if the other governments forget it, the oil companies know it and take it into account. Sure, they also want access to the reserves, but they are big boys and understand power games with the best of them (and they have much deeper pockets than Russia, and longer memories than other investors). So Russia is in the game, but it's not a free ride.
- nukes. Well, that's the big unsaid. Russia is potentially too dangerous to let it go bad, so the threat that chaos is looming is always good for a little extra help from the gullible West (cash at times, tolerance for repression at others, etc).
- rogue regimes. Like helping Iran build their nuclear reactor. Again, it's mostly leverage against the West, and the West falls for it each time, it's almost too easy. This is really a situation that would call for a little firmness ("stop selling nukes to iran or we'll stop giving visas to Paris or London to your girlfriends", handed with an up-to-date list of said girlfriends, would work absolute wonders if we cared to try...).
Russia does not give a damn about Iran. All it wants is respect and monet form the West. Supporting democracy consistently (the key word) will get you respect, even if you are a pain in the ass. forget the consistency, and Russia knows it's just a game played for leverage - and that, they know how to play. Make it non-negotiable, and there will be progress.
- UN veto. Who cares about the UN? France and Russia. Why? Because they have the veto! Forget the UN, lose the veto, ignore France and Russia. Seriously... (I mean, hated as the US administration is, what would it change? As if Bush cares about AIDS or refugees, the only kind of stuff that the UN does reasonably well)
So my bet is - relations between Russia and the US will be good, even if they are not warm. Relations between Russia and Europe will be tumultuous, even if they cannot be allowed to go bad.