As promised, a quick rundown of the competitive House races, both REALLY competitive and only mildly competitive. I will do another after the FEC report on fundraising comes out January 15.
Arizona 08 - Jim Kolbe (R) retiring after 11 terms
PRIMARY: September 12
GEOGRAPHY: Southern Arizona, east of Tucson
STATUS: Competitive; Bush won 53-47 in 2004
As always, this starts things out. Though Jeff Latas is the "underdog favorite" for the Dem primary, the probable victor is State Sen. Gabrielle Giffords. A number of prominent Republicans are considering, but the only one running so far is conservative former State Rep. Randy Graf. A Graf vs. Giffords race would be our best chance, as Giffords' centrist rhetoric would play well with the moderate voters of this district. For now, this is a close race, but one where Republicans will have the upper hand if they get any kind of a decent candidate.
California 50 special election - VACANT (R)
PRIMARY: April 11; runoff on June 6
GEOGRAPHY: Suburban San Diego County, north of San Diego
STATUS: Mildly Competitive; Bush won 55-45 in 2004
This is a special election; if no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote on April 11, a runoff between the top vote-getters occurs on June 6. This is likely to happen as there are many Republicans in the race. The only Democrat is Francine Busby. There is no reason for cockiness, as Bush won this district easily, but it's not exactly CA-48 either. Since Rep. Cunningham resigned in shame, corruption will play a major role in this race. Can Busby make this the first Democratic victory of 2006?
Colorado 07 - Bob Beauprez (R) running for Governor
PRIMARY: August 8
GEOGRAPHY: Denver suburbs
STATUS: Very Competitive; Kerry won 50-49
This could be the closest House race on November 7. With Dem trends in Colorado and the tightness of this district, we have reason to hope. Education Commissioner Rick O'Donnell will be tough competition, but we have a good bet in former State Sen. Ed Perlmutter. Worth a mention is also former State Rep. Peggy Lamm, though Perlmutter remains the frontrunner.
Connecticut 02 - Rob Simmons (R) first elected in 2000
PRIMARY: August 8
GEOGRAPHY: Eastern Connecticut
STATUS: Competitive; Kerry won with around 57%
Not only is this the bluest GOP-held seat in the nation, but Simmons' three victories have all been narrow. 2002 nominee Joe Courtney is running again; he got 46% in 2002 and should do better this year. We have a real opportunity here.
Connecticut 04 - Chris Shays (R) first elected in 1987
PRIMARY: August 8
GEOGRAPHY: Southwest Connecticut
STATUS: Competitive; Kerry won easily
Normally a 19-year incumbent wouldn't be vulnerable, but Shays won only 52-48 in 2004; and the 2004 nominee, Diane Farrell, is back.
Georgia 08 - Jim Marshall (D) first elected in 2002
PRIMARY: July 18
GEOGRAPHY: Middle Georgia, from the Atlanta suburbs to deep in the rural areas
STATUS: Very Competitive; Bush won 58% in 2000 and more in 2004
Here we come to the first and most vulnerable Democratic seat. Marshall, a popular conservative Dem, would have won in his former GA-03, but a recent redistricting has reconfigured his seat to be decidedly Republican and quite different geographically. Former Rep. Mac Collins, who represented some of these areas from 1992 until 2004, is tough competition. Help out Marshall, even though his site is outdated.
Illinois 06 - Henry Hyde (R) retiring after 16 terms
PRIMARY: March 21
GEOGRAPHY: Chicago's western suburbs
STATUS: Competitive; Bush won 53% but trends are blue
You probably know this race for the divisive Democratic primary between 2004 nominee Christine Cegelis, weak at fundraising but a local favorite, and Washington anointee Tammy Duckworth. My chips are on Duckworth, who I see as a much stronger candidate to take on Republican State Sen. Peter Roskam. This will be a toughie, and we need to unite. Luckily, we have almost 8 months after the primary to do that.
Illinois 08 - Melissa Bean (D) first elected in 2004
PRIMARY: March 21
GEOGRAPHY: Chicago's northern suburbs
STATUS: Very Competitive; Bush won easily
Bean is in a hell of a race. Her district is quite red, mostly because of its white-collar, Orange County-esque demographics. She has quite tepid support from liberals mostly because of her vote for CAFTA. Yet the GOP field is quite unimpressive and large, and Bean's warchest is huge for a House race.
Indiana 08 - John Hostettler (R) first elected in 1994
PRIMARY: May 2
GEOGRAPHY: Southwest Indiana
STATUS: Very Competitive; Bush won big but Hostettler routinely squeaks by
Hostettler is known to under-perform every time. He got just 53% in 2004 with Bush getting over 60% in this district. Worse for him, he is facing an excellent Democratic candidate, Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth, who is so far outraising the incumbent (we will see updated numbers when the FEC report comes out in 13 days).
Indiana 09 - Mike Sodrel (R) first elected in 2004
PRIMARY: May 2
GEOGRAPHY: Southeast Indiana
STATUS: Competitive; Bush won around 58%
Though Bush easily won here, as in IN-08 the politics are quite competitive. Democrat Lee Hamilton held this seat from 1964 to 1998, when he retired; at that point another conservative Democrat, Baron Hill, took the helms. Hill won reelection in 2000 and in 2002 (the latter time against Sodrel), but was barely defeated in 2004 because a) he took the race for granted, and b) Bush coattails. Now, he is back. As history has shown, IN-09 has a Democratic heritage, and Blue Dogs like Hill can win.
Iowa 01 - Jim Nussle (R) running for Governor
PRIMARY: June 6
GEOGRAPHY: Northeast Iowa
STATUS: Very Competitive; Gore and Kerry both won 53-47
Like CO-07 this will be a photo-finish because of an open Republican seat in slightly Democratic-leaning territory. The leading Dem is Bruce Braley; the leading Republican is State Rep. Bill Dix. Watch for a battle royale.
Iowa 03 - Leonard Boswell (D) first elected in 1996
PRIMARY: June 6
GEOGRAPHY: Des Moines area in Central Iowa
STATUS: Mildly Competitive; Gore won in 2000, Bush in 2004, both by squeakers
This is one of America's most closely-divided districts, and Boswell has often had tough fights, from a 49-48 squeaker in 1996 to a 55-45 win in 2004. He is facing a strong candidate in State Sen. Jeff Lamberti. Boswell is still favored, but between his age (nearly 72), ill health, tough opposition, and 50/50 district, he should take nothing for granted.
Louisiana 03 - Charlie Melancon (D) first elected in 2004
PRIMARY: Election Day, November 7; runoff on December 9
GEOGRAPHY: Southeast Louisiana
STATUS: Very Competitive; Bush got around 57% and Katrina may have made the seat even more Republican
Melancon was already vulnerable as he squeaked into office with a 50-50 win in 2004, but after Hurricane Katrina he is really in tough territory. Black voters and Cajun Democrats may have been spread out and fled his district (Melancon's Republican opponent, State Sen. Craig Romero, estimates that Melancon would have lost 43% to 57% in 2004 with the district's current demographics). So we have got to help the freshman out, because no matter how popular he may be, he has a real hurdle here.
New Mexico 01 - Heather Wilson (R) first elected in 1998
PRIMARY: June 6
GEOGRAPHY: Albuquerque area
STATUS: Very Competitive; Gore and Kerry both won 50-49
Wilson routinely survives by fair, though unimpressive, margins despite the slight Dem lean here, but her 2006 opponent is like none ever before: State Attorney General Patricia Madrid. Madrid has Gov. Bill Richardson's backing and as a state officer should have little trouble raising funds, especially with the Latino Democratic machine in New Mexico. This will be a headliner, and Madrid must win if we are to take back the House.
North Carolina 11 - Charles Taylor (R) first elected in 1990
PRIMARY: May 2
GEOGRAPHY: Appalachian hills, Western North Carolina
STATUS: Competitive; Bush got around 59% but Taylor routinely under-performs
Taylor has a real battle against former NFL Quarterback Heath Shuler, a Democratic candidate with some real crossover appeal to "NASCAR Dads" who dominate Appalachian politics. What's more, Shuler is apparently out-raising Taylor. Of note is the fact that Taylor's 2004 margin was only 55-45 against a much weaker candidate than Shuler.
Ohio 06 - Ted Strickland (D) running for Governor
PRIMARY: May 2
GEOGRAPHY: Eastern Ohio hills
STATUS: Very Competitive; Bush won by 50-50 squeaker
Strickland would have won unopposed, but his gubernatorial run opens this up and makes it the third most-vulnerable Democratic seat (after GA-08 and LA-03). Still, we have a great candidate in State Sen. Charlie Wilson, who should face a tight race against the Republican frontrunner, State House Speaker Pro Tem Chuck Blasdel.
Pennsylvania 06 - Jim Gerlach (R) first elected in 2002
PRIMARY: May 16
GEOGRAPHY: Philadelphia suburbs
STATUS: Very Competitive; Kerry won 51-49
Gerlach could be the most endangered Republican incumbent. While a State Senator he had this district carved out for him, yet he cannot seem to get more than 51-49, just slightly better than Bush's performance in this district. 2004 nominee Lois Murphy, who came so close last time, is back. If the wind is even slightly anti-GOP, Murphy will roll into Congress.
Pennsylvania 08 - Mike Fitzpatrick (R) first elected in 2004
PRIMARY: May 16
GEOGRAPHY: Philadelphia suburbs in Bucks County
STATUS: Mildly Competitive; Gore and Kerry both won but local politics are less blue
I keep this on the list of competitive seats barely. Though this socially liberal seat should be in the Democratic column, the utter unpreparedness of 2004 nominee Ginny Schrader, another "underdog favorite", made for an easy Fitzpatrick win. He may have a tougher time this year against Iraq vet Patrick Murphy or former Bucks County Commissioner Andy Warren (a recent convert to the Democratic Party), but I'm not excited so far.
Texas 22 - Tom DeLay (R) first elected in 1984
PRIMARY: March 7
GEOGRAPHY: Houston suburbs
STATUS: Competitive; Bush got 64% but the race is tight for obvious reasons
Ol' Tommy boy...what are we gonna do with him? He represents a safely Republican seat, but since his name is now synonymous with corruption and scandal, he is facing the battle of his life against former Rep. Nick Lampson who, ironically, DeLay redistricted out of a job in 2004. Even if DeLay is acquitted of the charges before him, he won't have much time to recover politically. Give to the Lampson campaign and see if we can't match DeLay's slimy fundraising machine.
There are, of course, many more somewhat contested House races: Texas 17, Arizona 01, Georgia 12, Colorado 03, Colorado 04, Florida 22, Minnesota 06, Wisconsin 08, North Carolina 08...the list goes on and on. But in my view, these are the headliners. And I will post an updated analysis like this after we know the fundraising numbers. Just two weeks!!