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Update [2004-12-18 0:42:54 by N in Seattle]:

Another way to look at the current situation: With 38 counties reporting, Rossi leads by 154,759 votes. In the first recount, Gregoire led King County by 154,709 votes.

*********

Update [2004-12-17 20:2:44 by N in Seattle]:

Pierce (Gregoire cuts margin by 31) and Spokane (Rossi adds 7 to margin) reported today. Gregoire needs to improve by 51 in King County to WIN. GOP wins in court, next stop Dem appeal to Supremes.

Stay tuned!!

*********

Just a brief update on the Thursday action in the Washington gubernatorial recount.  Only one of the "Big Four" counties reported its recount results, and much of the newsworthy action shifted to other fronts.  

Ominously, those fronts are the courts and the media.  I'll leave it to other, better-connected Kossacks to deal with those topics.  A couple of links:

deadinthewater: King County looking for 162 more Ballots in WA Gov Race
eugene: WA Gov: A new vote?

Yesterday's installment of my series, with links to earlier parts, is here.

Now to the Snohomish report...

Extending from Puget Sound and the northern suburbs of Seattle into the Cascades wilderness, Snohomish County is a rara avis -- a swing county.  Kerry beat Dubya comfortably (53.0%-45.5%) and Patty Murray did even better against George Nethercutt (54.9%-42.8%).  The county contributes portions of two Congressional Districts, and both Jay Inslee (D-WA1) and Rick Larsen (D-WA2) won handily in Snohomish.  But the Republican candidates for Attorney General and Secretary of State won the county.  See this page on the SoS website for the Snohomish rundown.

Dino Rossi (R-smarmy whining real estate salesman) narrowly led Christine Gregoire (D-wimpy "electable" centrist) in the overall county results.  He got about 6500 more votes than Gregoire, out of nearly 300,000 ballots cast ... about two percentage points.  Rossi didn't quite reach a majority due to the presence of Libertarian Ruth Bennett, a gay marriage activist who attracted 2.3% of the vote.

It came as a big surprise, then, when Gregoire cut deeply into Rossi's razor-thin margin when Snohomish reported on Thursday.  She picked up 119 new-found votes to Rossi's 75 and Bennett's 9.  The hand recount tallied 4 fewer valid ballots than the machine recount.  This outcome is significantly different from what one would have expected -- a 4 or 5 vote Rossi advantage -- based on the overall county voting pattern.  Through Wednesday, the 35 previously-reported counties had increased Rossi's paper-thin margin by 79 votes (recall that the lead was 42 after the full machine recount).  Between the surprising Snohomish outcome and 3 additional Gregoire votes reported by Whitman County, the hand recount has now added only 32 votes to Dino's edge.

Overall, he has added 353 new votes from the 36 reporting counties.  Gregoire's total has increased by 321 votes, and Bennett has added 16 (the SoS website still anomalously shows her with +1 in Cowlitz County and +17 overall).  Adding the Snohomish votes has edged the recounted total to just over 50% of the nearly 2.9 million ballots in the gubernatorial race.

Snohomish found 6.8 new for-a-candidate votes for every 10000 ballots, increasing the overall new-found rate to 4.7/10000.  With a net of 690 new-found candidate votes at this juncture, I'm estimating the total increase at 1358; again, this estimate doesn't account for the 573 (or is it 735?) erroneously-rejected King County ballots.

That Snohomish's total of for-a-candidate votes increased may confound some of you.  After all, the county uses the Sequoia Pacific AVC Edge DRE touchscreen system, doesn't it?  And there's no paper trail, right?  

Well, yes and no.  It's partially correct.  The county also votes in part with Optech 4C-400 optical scanner machines.  And, as we've discussed previously, Washington very strongly encourages absentee voting.  In fact, over two-thirds of Snohomish County's voters cast absentee ballots, none of which were cast via touchscreen.

So, where are we now?  

Rossi's current lead can be construed as 74 votes, based on the 42 from the machine recount plus his added 32-vote margin from the 36 completed counties.  Three more counties remain unreported -- Spokane, Pierce (Tacoma), and King (Seattle) -- constituting about 49% of the Washington electorate.  Previous machine recount vote percentages from those three counties were:

  • Spokane -- Rossi 52.8%, Gregoire 45.3%, Bennett 1.9% (203,878 ballots)
  • Pierce -- Rossi 50.8%, Gregoire 46.8%, Bennett 2.3% (317,011 ballots)
  • King -- Gregoire 57.8%, Rossi 40.1%, Bennett 2.2% (898,574 ballots)

Remember, though, that those percentages and totals are already figured into the 42-vote machine recount margin.  At this moment in the 36-county hand recount totals, Rossi has received almost 128,000 more votes than Gregoire.  In the machine recount, he beat Gregoire by about 15,000 in Spokane and 12,500 in Pierce, but trailed her by 155,000 in King.  Sum those figures, and you come right back to what is essentially a dead heat.

I have no idea when the last three counties will report.  If one or more comes in today, I'll write an update about that, tonight or tomorrow.  Otherwise, my next analysis might not appear until next week.  In the meantime, the judicial branch and the fourth estate seem to be where the real WA Gov action is.

Originally posted to Peace Tree Farm on Fri Dec 17, 2004 at 12:36 PM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  tip jar (got any wheat pennies?) (n/t) (4.00)

    You're only young once, but you can be immature forever -- Larry Andersen

    by N in Seattle on Fri Dec 17, 2004 at 12:27:49 PM PST

    •  Thanks, N! (none)

      Can you update to include Pierce when you get a chance?  

      I have full faith in our WA state system.  And am very proud of how we've done this.  It's sad about Ralph Munro pouring logs on the fire -- I've been wondering if maybe Karl Rove bit him.

      Also: I'm curious about the King County late discoveries.  I read that Dean Logan only came on board in June, so I find it hard to blame him. Are there personnel issues?  Is the office understaffed?  Is this simply typical in such a large county?

      Susan in Port Angeles (my cat)

      by SusanHu on Fri Dec 17, 2004 at 12:53:26 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  No wheat pennies, but I do have ... (none)
      ...an entire jar full of 1943 steel pennies that my step-grandma saved.

      BTW, your reporting on this on-going recount has been superb.

      We don't inherit the Earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children. - David Brower

      by Meteor Blades on Fri Dec 17, 2004 at 03:07:02 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  excellent diary (none)
      Keep up the great work.

      Hey megalomaniac. You're no Jesus. Yeah, you're no fucking Elvis. Wash your hands clean of your self, maniac. Step down. Step down. -incubus

      by Georgia Logothetis on Fri Dec 17, 2004 at 08:12:13 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Pierce is in (none)
    According to the SoS website, only Spokane and King are out.  Rossi's lead is down to 43.

    Bush, so incompetent, he can't even do the wrong things right.

    by JAPA21 on Fri Dec 17, 2004 at 12:38:50 PM PST

    •  aoeu (none)
      Looks like he's done unless something untoward happens in Spokane..
      •  no big change in Spokane (none)
        The Spokane County auditor is quoted in today's Spokesman-Review as saying she isn't expecting any big changes in the numbers.  That link is a pay subscription, so here is the relevent part of the article:
        Spokane County nearly finished its manual recount of ballots Thursday afternoon. Spokane County Auditor Vicky Dalton said there were three precincts where the number of ballots is off by one from the machine recount, and staff will reconcile those precincts this morning.

        A preliminary tally hasn't been done, but Dalton thought the changes in totals were about even for Rossi and Gregoire.

        The hand recount turned up 40 ballots with unusual markings that will be sent to the canvassing board to try to determine the voter's intent. They include ballots where two ovals have been filled in but one oval is crossed out, or where one is fully marked and another has a partial marking, or where one oval is only partially filled, so it wouldn't be counted by a machine. There are also a few ballots with "oddball markings," Dalton said, that the board will have to consider.

        •  Martha, we need to chat (none)
          E-mail me - I have some questions about Spokane progressives and need your input.  :-)

          I put things where they don't belong at Switzerblog.

          by switzerblog on Fri Dec 17, 2004 at 01:13:33 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  so Spokane is reviewing "rejecteds" (none)
          right? It sounds like those 40 were not part of the machine recount, but some could be part of the hand recount.

          Interesting. If I understand this correctly, it means that a county that went for Rossi elected to review previously rejected ballots. Sort of undercuts the "done for Democratic partisan advantage" argument, doesn't it?

          •  Misinterpretation (none)
            Any county Canvassing Board can make determinations of voter intent in a hand recount.

            The controversy in King County concerns ballots that were not examined (by machine or by eye) for voter intent in the initial report or in the "machine recount". They were erroneously rejected as not qualified ballots, just as you would reject mail-in's from non-registered voters, duplicates, etc.

            •  right (none)
              that was my interpretation also.  These ballots have been run through the machines twice, but when looking at them in the manual recount, it was unclear how to count them, so they go to the canvassing board.
  •  Pierce meets today to decide the fate of 1 ballot (none)
    ... found in the works of a tabulating machine.

    With that, I think they're ready to report.

    Also, GOP goes to Pierce County court (neutral venue) to sue King County over elections issues. 1:30 PST, I think, and may be convered on TVW or NWCN.

    I rate it much better than a dead head at this point. Most of the King County 723 should come in, plus additional King margin from careful review of voter intent on ballots culled from the regular manual recount. Pierce (Tacoma) and Spokane (Spokane) are relatively low-margin counties.

    That's why you're starting to hear GOP squeal about restraining orders and new elections. They are worried -- as they should be.

    •  Pierce is in... (4.00)
      And Gregoire picked up 31 more votes than Rossi (+232 to +201).  Rossi's lead is now +1 in the recount, 43 vote margin total, with Spokane and King to report.
    •  to RonK (off-topic) (none)
      Ron, I didn't realize that you were at the 36th reorg last night, because I didn't learn until afterwards that "RonK Seattle" = Ron K****n.  Otherwise I would have greeted you.

      I did see Lahdee, Switzerblog (briefly), and "el ga????dor" or whatever he calls himself at the meeting.

      You would know me by sight if not by name.  Though you also know (at least) my last name, which I share with my elected-last-night sibling.

      (dKos world, please excuse this abuse of personal privilege)

      You're only young once, but you can be immature forever -- Larry Andersen

      by N in Seattle on Fri Dec 17, 2004 at 01:20:12 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes, I did greet you last night ... (none)
        ... with switzer, ganador, et al. Didn't realize you were in the dark.

        Your sister did well in a surprisingly close contest. Almost, but not quite, recount close!

        •  me? in a daze? (none)
          Yep, no doubt about it.  At that time, my mind was focused on the entertainmentdistrict reorganization battle.

          Had someone previously clued you in that N in Seattle = N** T***n, or was that just a good guess on your part?

          You're only young once, but you can be immature forever -- Larry Andersen

          by N in Seattle on Fri Dec 17, 2004 at 02:45:58 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  I moved from 36th to 46th 2 Years Ago (none)
            I may know you, too!

            I'm Jim Ferguson, who used to edit the The Alert before I moved.

            Anyway, Hi!  How are you doing?

            I have really enjoyed reading all of your analyses here.

            Jim

            •  yep (none)
              Yes, Jim, you do indeed know me.  I'm the one who lives in the 43rd but has a sibling who's a longtime PCO and E-board member, and was just elected Vice Chair of the 36th last night.  

              With all the other 36th alumni and local-politics junkies at their reorg, I half-expected you to swing by for the show like the rest of us.

              You're only young once, but you can be immature forever -- Larry Andersen

              by N in Seattle on Fri Dec 17, 2004 at 05:18:45 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  I am sorry I missed it! (none)
                Congrats to J** for getting Vice Chair!!

                How did the other office races pan out?

                I miss everyone at all the meetings and the gatherings at Hyrams were fun. (That closed, didn't it?)   

                To be honest I haven't been to the district meetings as much as I should, but I have been going to the N Seattle DFA meetups up here.

                The DFA meetings have been really, really good.

              •  Congrats to J in Seattle! (none)
                I heard about this from microveldt today - tell her I said congratulations.  

                Hey, introduce me to Lahdee next time we're all in the same room - I've been wondering who that is!  :-)

                I put things where they don't belong at Switzerblog.

                by switzerblog on Fri Dec 17, 2004 at 11:55:55 PM PST

                [ Parent ]

  •  N, your updates are great - (none)
    I live in Snohomish Co. and have looked forward to your regular posts.  Now that we're down to King and Spokane Counties, things are really getting interesting!
  •  Looking Good (none)
    With 573 new ballots in King County, and another 100+ possibly on the way, Gregoire seems in good shape.  If there were betting, I'd lay forty-two votes to take Gregoire in the hand recount right now.
  •  wouldn't ya know it? (4.00)
    Half an hour after I post, in comes Pierce County.

    As others note, Gregoire +232, Rossi +201, Bennett +14.  The county tallied 1 more ballot than in the first recount, but found 447 additional valid votes.  That's a high new-found rate of 14.1/10000.

    The margin is significantly to Gregoire's advantage -- expected numbers were G +209.3, R +227.3, B +10.4.

    You're only young once, but you can be immature forever -- Larry Andersen

    by N in Seattle on Fri Dec 17, 2004 at 01:08:29 PM PST

  •  Thanks for posting, N! (none)
    It was good to see you last night.  I'm taking the day off from the recount to handle some personal errands that could no longer wait and take care of some Democracy for Washington business (we have a site for our org meeting!).  I'm glad I have the time, but I wish I was there today, while they were searching for those 162 ballots.

    Speaking of that, does anyone have any insight as to how they know there are 162 valid ballots missing without having them in hand?

    I put things where they don't belong at Switzerblog.

    by switzerblog on Fri Dec 17, 2004 at 01:12:03 PM PST

  •  Today's Phrase that Pays: 'Hesitation Mark' (4.00)
    From an optical-scan voting white paper by U. Iowa's Douglas R Jones:

    hesitation marks

    One particular class of accidental mark is of special importance. Many people, when holding a pencil while reading a text, use the pencil point as a pointer, resting it on the paper beside each line while reading that line. Unfortunately, wherever the voter rests the pencil point, it will generally make a faint mark, and the obvious place to rest the pencil point beside a line on the ballot is in the voting target for that line.

    Most accidental marks are small spots, and most mark-sense ballot tabulating systems have thresholds set so that they ignore typical hesitation marks, but some voters make darker hesitation marks than others. Voters with mild vision problems frequently find it helpful to use a pointer when reading, and the same mild vision problem that leads a voter to use the pencil as a pointer may make that voter unable to see the marks it leaves.

    Many such marks are apparent on "overvote" ballots, but there's something special at work in King and Pierce counties.

    Parts of King and Pierce county are in WA's 8th Congressional District, which featured the race between Republican Dave Reichert and Democrat Dave Ross.

    The WA-08 ballot line (lowest-ranking federal contest) appears on the ballot immediately above the race for Governor (highest-ranking state office).

    So a Democrat intending to vote Dave Ross for Congress might easily touch down on the Rossi bubble before realizing he's on the wrong line ... leaving a hesitation mark  before darkening the ovals: Ross for US Rep, Gregoire for Gov (and thus creating an apparent overvote for Governor).

    The scanner might have rejected this intended Gregoire vote, and the hand-counting team might also divert it to the "overvote" pile (counting table guidelines and understandings have meandered a bit in the course of the week), BUT ... all such "overvotes" will eventually go under the noses of the Canvassing Board, who will have little trouble discerning true voter intent.

    In short, potential big score for Gregoire in the final tally.

    •  Does the GOP call (none)
      for new elections have any teeth?  Do you know what the process would be?

      Its amazing to me how much they whine, especially when their boy looks like he might be in trouble.

      "If there was hope, it lies in the proles"

      by lapin on Fri Dec 17, 2004 at 01:29:39 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  legislature (none)
        as I understand it only the legislature can call for a new election.  SeaTimes

        There are two scenarios under which the loser in the hand recount could contest the result, meaning a specific challenge to the validity of the election.

        There's a process in state law that calls for hearings before a judge if there are allegations of fraud or negligence in the election. After hearing evidence, a judge could rule that the election be "annulled and set aside."

        But what's raising eyebrows in the legal and political worlds is the prospect that instead of following that law, the loser might go directly to the Legislature under a provision in the state constitution.
        The Gregoire camp has said they would not interested and are maintaining their "count all the votes and we'll live with it" mandra.  However, Gregoire didn't support WA Dems Supreme Court suit.  WA Dems are the wildcard here, and the Democrats will control both houses of the legislature after January 11, 2005 (any action prior to that sees Dems controlling the house and the republics the Senate). The Gregoire camp is squishy on that.
        "Going to the Legislature is not a pretty option and not an option many people want," spokeswoman Mary Lane said. "But if somehow the election results were to be overturned, that would be so unusual we have to reserve all our options."
        David Burman, who you may remember impressed many with his oral presentation on Monday at Supreme Court, is reported to have told SOS Reed in a 12/1 letter
        "If there is to be an election contest as to this office, the Constitution requires that it be decided by the Legislature, not the Judiciary, and that would inevitably drag into the early months of next year,"
        Can't wait for the ruling from Pierce County

        "Reform is the hallmark of a strong Democratic Party." Howard Dean

        by Lahdee on Fri Dec 17, 2004 at 02:54:43 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  Is this the same Dave Ross? (none)
      who does some pretty clever radio reports each day at 5:35 PM on KCBS in the Bay Area. I know he's based in WA.

      If so, how'd he do?

      The Unavoter...manifesto coming soon! Be the first kid on your blog to visit Fahrenheit 11/2.

      by unavoter on Fri Dec 17, 2004 at 01:42:41 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yes.. he is.. (none)
        Sadly, he lost. He was running in a county that is not quite ready to swing democratic.
      •  Must be ... (none)

        Dave Ross is absolutely wonderful on his morning show.  The voice of sanity and reason.  And invariably thoughtful with all callers (no matter how lame).

        It really bothers me that he lost to Reichart, who had such a rightwing campaign.

        That would have been a great pick-up for the Democrats, taking a seat from a retiring Republican. Sigh.

        But at least he's on the air.  Glad you get to hear him down there!

        Susan in Port Angeles (my cat)

        by SusanHu on Fri Dec 17, 2004 at 02:28:31 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  He lost. (none)
        There is an old saying in politics : When voters are given a choice between a real republican and a closet republican they'll choose the real republican.  

        Ross was an opportunist trying to win an election based on name rec.  Unfortunately his ego didn't allow for the fact that his negatives were so high that his high name meant people knew him and disliked him.  Add to that he hired the keystone kops as his campaign staff (Ross forot to show up for the Seattle Times editorial board) believed that in a swing district they could just count on Kerry's turnout to carry them to victory, i.e. they had no field operation and raised no money.

        One of the worst campaigns in Washington state politics with one of the worst candidates.  This was a winnable seat against a beatable opponent.

        Look for State Rep Ross Hunter to challenge Reichert and actually run a campaign and win.

    •  Ron you are the man. (none)
      Really, that's amazing.
    •  mighty crafty of those Dems, eh? (none)
      Quite the trick to place Dave <b<Ross</b> immediately above Dino Rossi, wasn't it?  Maybe Berendt had that in mind the whole time when he scuttled Alex Alben and Heidi Behrens-Benedict by shoving Ross into that primary.

      OTOH, WA lists candidates in the order of their performance in the last top statewide race.  So Dave Reichert, Spencer Garrett (Libertarian candidate in WA-8), the header for "Governor", and Gregoire would all appear between Ross and Rossi.

      You're only young once, but you can be immature forever -- Larry Andersen

      by N in Seattle on Fri Dec 17, 2004 at 02:53:15 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  GOP v Sanity hearing now live on NWCN (4.00)
    in Pierce County Court
  •  so nice to know the Reds (none)
    want every vote counted.

    not.................

  •  Gregoire Outperforming by 90 votes (none)
    Gregoire has 90 more votes than that predicted by the percentages alone, so is actually "up" by 48 votes.  However, county by county results have been too erratic to predict any trends, so we'll have to wait for spokane and king counties, but it's kinda fun to speculate.  My prediction, including the 561 votes, is that gregore wins by 92 votes.
    •  A win without the corrected King ballots? (none)
      The best case scenario is a win that exceeds the margin granted by the correct King County ballots.  This completely takes the wind out of the sails of any challenge.  I think that with the unexpectedly good results in Snohomish and Pierce it just might happen.
  •  Simply amazing! (none)
    You've got to admire a party that has the outright 'nads to try to spin actually counting the votes as a bad thing.

    And when you're done admiring them, quickly resume hating them...

    "Don't blame me, I voted for the smart guy."

    by frsbdg on Fri Dec 17, 2004 at 02:30:17 PM PST

  •  Summing up: the lower court decision ... (4.00)
    ... goes against considering the (now) 723 King County ballots.

    That'll go to the WA Supreme Court (since their decision earlier this week inconveniently omitted any explicit disposition of the (then) 561 ballots erroneously not processed in the original counts ... even though there seemed to be general understanding during oral argument that these would count.

    Maybe the question will be effectively moot by the time the Court gets around to it -- for instance if Gregoire takes the leads based on routine King County hand recounts.

    BUT ... I wouldn't expect King to release their numbers before this is resolved ...

    BUT ... party observers will probably have a good idea which way the numbers are running.

    Probably a good thing the Dem member of the three-person Canvassing Board is Councilman Pelz, and not Councilman Phillips!

    •  Wow (none)
      That's definitely bad news. It gives the GOP claims against these ballots instant credibility, whereas they didn't have that before. So now we have to hope the Supreme Court can rule quickly on this matter before more damage is done.

      Do the Dems have any plans to trot these voters out before the cameras? It would strike me as a very good PR move to play up these voters and have them demand their votes be counted.

      I'm not part of a redneck agenda - Green Day

      by eugene on Fri Dec 17, 2004 at 03:35:47 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  especially this one (none)
        From this morning's Seattle Times:
        It's not only Democrats who want the 573 ballots counted.

        Chantelle Weaver, a South Seattle resident, voted for Rossi and discovered this week she was on the list of people whose votes were disqualified.

        "I did everything I needed to do to get my vote counted," said Weaver, who added it was her first time voting.

        She disagrees with the Republicans' effort to block the ballots from being counted.

        "I figure every vote should be counted, whether I win or not," Weaver said.

        You're only young once, but you can be immature forever -- Larry Andersen

        by N in Seattle on Fri Dec 17, 2004 at 03:42:23 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

      •  A lot of them are already trotting (none)
        ... epecially Phillips, but some of the no-names too.

        Bet you'll see more and more of them tonite and thru the weekend news cycle.

  •  Not A Good Thing (4.00)
    This afternoon I read the Vanity Fair article on the Supreme Court and the 2000 Junta.  

    Now I read Ron K's excellent and helpful summary of the court hearing.

    This is not a good thing, not a good thing at all.

    It is depressing to lose a hearing where your side is trying to count all the votes and the winning side is arguing that valid, legal votes should not be counted, even if the reason they were not counted the first time around was clearly a mistake.

    What is more depressing is that I live in a supposed democracy where the winner's argument can even be made without being thrown out of court.

    We are in serious trouble.

    I am not in the tin-foil hat crowd and I haven't been writing any posts about fraud, etc.

    But the Democrats are making a mistake in not taking up the cause in every single instance in which election irregularities, petty local officials and Republican campaign operatives have blatantly suppressed or screwed up the counting of the vote.

    Want an issue that cuts across all lines?

    How about coming out in favor of the voice of the people?

  •  Rossi in Phoenix (none)
    I thought it odd that Dino Rossi got off a plane in Phoenix Thursday, looking very pleased with the world. Does he know something we don't?
  •  Spokane is in (none)
    Net +7 for Rossi.

    Gregoire needs a +51 gain out of King to win.

    •  just saw it too (none)
      I'll put up an update.

      It would be sweeeeeeet if Rossi loses without the howevermanyitis votes that the GOP is blocking.

      You're only young once, but you can be immature forever -- Larry Andersen

      by N in Seattle on Fri Dec 17, 2004 at 04:46:03 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  do you think (none)
        Gregoire will get the 51 with King "as-is"? My very, very rough estimate (comparing King to Pierce and Snohomish) would be that Gregoire wil get around 100+ net out of King, which would give her @ a +50 final victory.
        •  magical thinking (none)
          I really, really don't want to predict anything.  I've been wrong far too often.

          You're only young once, but you can be immature forever -- Larry Andersen

          by N in Seattle on Fri Dec 17, 2004 at 04:58:18 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  no one's ever wrong (none)
            it's just that their particular quantum reality chose to align its outome differently. Elsewhere, Kerry is president and the Yankees won the World Series.

            :-)

            •  heh (none)
              Somewhere or another, I posted a comment today in which I likened the Wa Gov race to Schrodinger's cat.

              If you don't mind, I'd prefer to be in one of the many-worlds in which Bush isn't president and the Sox still won the Series.

              Far less probable than your choice, I suspect.

              You're only young once, but you can be immature forever -- Larry Andersen

              by N in Seattle on Fri Dec 17, 2004 at 05:08:08 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

          •  A Good Bet (none)
            If the KC573 are included, Gregoire will win. A Seattle Times precinct-level anaylsis predicted a 140 vote lead among those ballots. Based on that, odds are 99.5% that her margin is better than 75, and 97,5% that her margin is better than 92. Another 120 ballots will only help her.
        •  projections (none)
          If King County has an average number of additional votes without the 723:

          If Gregoire matches her performance in King County overall, she's +94 for a 44 vote win.

          If she matches her performance in the additional votes statewide relative to her overall performance statewide, she's +132 for an 82 vote win.

          •  similar (none)
            I see that I'm not the only spreadsheet jockey around here.

            My quick look at your first assumption says +93, but who's quibbling?

            You're only young once, but you can be immature forever -- Larry Andersen

            by N in Seattle on Fri Dec 17, 2004 at 05:13:43 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

          •  I expect King to produce less than average ... (none)
            ... number of new votes.

            King was almost certainly most diligent than many counties in reviewing overvotes and undervotes during the machine recount phase.

            Without the 723, this could be a very close finish.

            However, it would be a sweet irony if:

            1. Gregoire picks up less than 50 votes in King County.
            2. GOP wins Supreme Court ruling to bar tabluation of King County "new ballots", and
            3. This in turn forces Red counties to revoke enough "new ballot" recount votes to lose Rossi the election.

            N, what sayeth your spreadsheet on this?
            •  many considerations (none)
              I'm going to try to review a few scenarios this weekend, though I haven't really worked out the particulars.  Gotta do some "real" work over the weekend too, in part to catch up with what I shirked while following today's events.

              I do agree that King will probably come out with fewer "new" votes than the projections might suggest, for the reason you describe.  In the machine recount, King's new votes constituted 40% of the total votes added though it's only 31% of the voters.  If they did a better job of ferreting out valid ballots (including some work on "intent of the voter") back then, it stands to reason that fewer additional ones are left to be unearthed.

              I'll put up a diary sometime over the weekend, though I don't want to make specific promises beyond that.

              I'm also thinking about a diary on the Battle of the 36th, though I'm not confident that I can do it justice.

              You're only young once, but you can be immature forever -- Larry Andersen

              by N in Seattle on Fri Dec 17, 2004 at 08:25:21 PM PST

              [ Parent ]

              •  OTOH, hesitation marks could juice it up (none)
                ... as discussed upthread, and possibly implicated in Pierce Co results.

                In short, we don't know ... but from several angles it looks good for Gregoire.

                The Battle of the 36th? That's only half over. Hit the first major agenda point 1.5 hours behind plan, and took a motion to adjourn an hour early.

                Next month: Sec, Treas, minor offices, plus bylaw changes substantially scrambling the minor office lineup.

  •  To the Supreme Court! (none)
    The state Supreme Court is the next stop in this outrageous lawsuit. Hopefully they'll overturn this decision and allow the votes to be counted. It is a sad day when the GOP resorts to getting the court to stip citizens of their rights so they can win. Just the other day Dino Rossi was preaching "people, not lawyers". Who's got the legal arsenal out now? Dino Rossi, of course.

    Permanent Defense continues to track the latest with GregoireWatch, as does the NW Progressive blog.

  •  wins by 1 (none)
    if gregoire wins, rossi has no recourse since he has already gotten the extra votes thrown out.he would have to concede or look pretty foolish.
    it looks like it is going to be a coin toss. whoever wins will probably do it by less than 10 votes.maybe they really should have the election over again and make it about bush. i assume in a revote gregoire would wins easily.

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