Daily Kos

Feb 3 Comes Into Focus

by Petey

Mon Feb 02, 2004 at 08:57:20 AM PDT

So what's the forecast for Feb 3 and beyond?
Dean's not competing.  Does he get any delegates in the Southwest?  Don't forget about the early mail-in votes.  How does the press paint this ahead of MI?  I suspect he gets a pass, but also suspect he has deep trouble later in the week.

Clark's sliding in some polls in OK.  I think he faces a death spiral if he doesn't win OK or really surge in AZ.

Edwards is all over the place in SC polls, but I'd guess he pulls it out.  (I also thought he was going to comfortably beat Clark in NH, so what do I know?)  A win in SC keeps him alive in the press and in fund-raising.  But it's a shame he can't do more this week.  This really seems like the easiest moment to recast the race.  But he'd need something beyond SC to really do that - either an unexpected surge in MO or in OK.  A week after Feb 3, VA and TN should be a very minor firewall for Edwards.

If both Edwards and Clark both win their 'strong' state, they both continue on dividing the anti-Kerry centrist vote, and continue to miss the opportunity to recast the race with Kerry in the 'liberal' slot.  Both should be rooting for the other to underperform.

Oddly, Dean should be rooting for Kerry.  If both Edwards and Clark get beat in their 'strong' state, it could potentially leave Dean left standing as the anti-Kerry.

Of course, the anti-Kerry slot doesn't seem to be worth very much.  I don't think Dean or Clark could scale up to the necessary degree to be a viable alternative for the nomination, even if they were the last anti-Kerry standing.  Things don't seem much better for Edwards, but if he does end up as the last anti-Kerry standing, he'd have at least a possibility of victory.

Kerry continues to stand tall.  The race isn't going to recast itself, and he's currently cast as the nominee.

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  •  Monday Zogby (none / 1)

    http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=800

    Edwards surges in SC
    Kerry surges in MO
    Clark surges back to even in OK.

    Visit Petey's Diary

    by Petey on Mon Feb 02, 2004 at 09:31:14 AM PDT

    •  Leaners factored in (none / 0)

      The numbers on the Zogby site have the leaners factored in, which accounts for most of the surge effect. The updated numbers on the MSNBC site are sans leaners and look a little different:

      SC
      Edwards: 26
      Kerry: 24

      MO
      Kerry: 43
      Edwards: 14

      OK
      Kerry: 24
      Clark: 24
      Edwards: 16

      So, very minor changes from yesterday until the leaners are pressed - mostly slight gains for Clark and Edwards in their key states.

      by Shawn on Mon Feb 02, 2004 at 09:55:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Loose Ends (none / 1)

    Barring a OK or MO surge, Edwards exits Feb 3 as a regional candidate, not a national candidate.  That's a downgrade from NH.

    If Dean really wants to stay alive in MI and WI, he ought to (politely said) re-emphasize his postion on NAFTA and trade.  We're about to see if the new Gore regime in Burlington can/will play hardball.  Otherwise Dean is going to lose those states by 15 - 20 points to Kerry, and start hearing the death spiral on the horizon.

    Even if Clark wins OK, where does he go?  Compete against Edwards in VA and TN?  Go after good-government WI against Dean?  Pull a Dean and sit out a round?

    Visit Petey's Diary

    by Petey on Mon Feb 02, 2004 at 09:42:26 AM PDT

    •  You don't think that (none / 0)

      Edwards will hold on until TN and VA. I know the polls are not showing him doing well there right now.

      I have to wonder if being a southerner is a negative this year. Maybe voters are tired of Southerners.

      I hear that the weather in the upstate is supposed to be bad tommorrow-ice. I wonder if this will affect the turnout for Edwards.

      I'm too disgusted right now to think of a sig.

      by Ga6thDem on Mon Feb 02, 2004 at 09:51:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Two Southerners (none / 1)

        "I have to wonder if being a southerner is a negative this year. Maybe voters are tired of Southerners."

        having two southerneres at the same time is a negative.  if Edwards had been able to assassinate Clark in NH, things would look a bit different.

        Visit Petey's Diary

        by Petey on Mon Feb 02, 2004 at 09:58:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  geography (none / 0)

        Kerry's unpolitic "we can win without the South" notwithstanding, being a Southerner doesn't seem to confer much of an advantage this year. Except for Clark's brief post-announcement bounce (and Clark is not a quintessentially "Southern" candidate), the national polls have had Liebermen, then Dean, then Kerry leading. Not a ringing endorsement of the South. In fact, I think at base it's been a Kerry/Dean race with the lead switching at times. Look at the pre and post Iowa poll numbers both nationally and in post NH states. If you look at the numbers it's as if Kerry and Dean just switched names. Kerry/Dean is "generic Democrat". If you somehow combined them (and it wouldn't hurt to throw in a bit of Edwards' speaking abilities) Bush would get a spanking of Carter '80 size proportions.

        Barack Obama will only become president if enough people pay attention, so pay attention, dammit!

        by JMS on Mon Feb 02, 2004 at 10:35:59 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Feb. 7 states for Dean... (none / 0)

      - Washington is probably the state that has the strongest Dean organization and where Dean has the most support this side of Vermont.  

      This is a caucus as well, which will work in Dean's favor (no bandwagoners for Kerry).  

      I'll be shocked if Kerry wins this one.

      - Michigan allows Internet caucus voting, which could also tip the balance to Dean.

      If Dean can swing both those states, he's back on equal footing with Kerry.

      by Fro on Mon Feb 02, 2004 at 10:21:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Please quit while your behind (3.33 / 3)

    Petey's last "focus"

    You need new glasses dude.

    by itchyredness on Mon Feb 02, 2004 at 10:02:00 AM PDT

  •  predictions for 2/3 (none / 0)

    Edwards wins SC by 5 %.
    Kerry wins Arizona, Missouri, NM
    Clark wins Oklahoma by a very small margin (a guess more than being sure, margins in polls are too small to know.
    Dean gets crushed everywhere, diminushing even more his viability.

    by votekerry on Mon Feb 02, 2004 at 10:38:11 AM PDT

  •  hmmm... (none / 0)

    Pollster John Zogby: "Edwards' strength in South Carolina is among Republicans and Independents, while Kerry leads among Democrats. Kerry also leads among the relatively small number of union voters. Edwards is picking up more support among African Americans, even as Sharpton begins to grab a larger share of his base. Dean is still very popular among 18-24 year olds.

    SC
            Dem  Rep  Ind  Libertarian
    Edwards 30.7 25.1 30.7 -
    Kerry   29.2 17.2 17.1 16.8

    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

    by DemFromCT on Mon Feb 02, 2004 at 10:47:11 AM PDT

  •  more... (none / 0)

    SC

             White AfAmer Other
    Dean       9.9   9.4  21.1
    Edwards   35.2  23.7  23.6
    Kerry     23.0  28.7  11.4
    Kucinich   1.1   -     7.3
    JoeMentum  8.0   2.1   9.3
    Sharpton   1.9  13.2  15.9
    Clark     10.2   9.3   7.9
    Other      4.7   1.1   3.5
    NS         6.0  12.6    -

    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

    by DemFromCT on Mon Feb 02, 2004 at 10:55:17 AM PDT

  •  Joe-klahoma (none / 0)

    Gender
           Total Male Female
    Dean     6.2  6.0  6.4
    Edwards 18.7 19.1 18.4
    Kerry   26.8 30.2 23.9
    Clark   27.7 27.8 27.7
    NS      11.9  8.8 14.6

    Kerry runs well with males, even in a strong Clark state... Clark appeals to OK women. Still a lot of not sures, even for Zogby. Too close to call...

    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

    by DemFromCT on Mon Feb 02, 2004 at 11:00:58 AM PDT

  •  Dean's not competing. (none / 0)

    Agreed. His only hope for actual delegates is AZ.  Elsewhere, he's stuck in Joementum territory.  How depressing.

    I don't always agree with Richard Blow, but his article at TomPaine.Com is mostly on target:

    A campaign implosion doesn't happen overnight, and the press completely missed the stories of friction within the campaign and its financial precariousness. Why? Because reporters on the presidential beat are still obsessed with the horse race at the expense of studying the process. Finding out how many ads the Dean campaign was buying and what they cost is not that hard. But when you're busy trailing the candidate looking for a gaffe or a photogenic moment (like a supporter announcing that he intended to pray for Dean), so that you can whip out your Blackberry and e-mail it in to the bureau, you don't have time for such legwork.

    ...

    Now, according to Katherine Seelye of The New York Times, Roy Neel, for years a lobbyist for the telecommunications industry, is coming in to act as a "calming, adult influence" on the Dean campaign. Calming, adult--maybe. Business as usual, Washington insider--definitely. Howard Dean just undercut his entire reason for running.

    The nomination is Kerry's to lose at this point, unless he commits a huge gaffe, like getting arrested for murder or something.

    In a way, I should be pleased. Despite the CW (which persists even on this board), Kerry is more liberal than Dean or Edwards, albeit only slightly. And (probably because of the same CW) Kerry polls better than Dean against Bush.

    The real question is the strength of Kerry's backbone. In the past, the "liberal" Kerry has caved to the wingnuts on the war, tax cuts, affirmative action (at least rhetorically), and the minimum wage. Will the "new" Kerry keep running on Dean's platform, or will we see the return of the "old" Kerry as soon as Bush/Rove begin their attacks?

    Those of us who had hopes for Dean may have lost, but if the "new" Kerry sticks around, then we've won a wonderful consolation prize. I still resent the media's mugging of Howard Dean, but it'd be sweet irony if the Dems end up with even a slightly more liberal candidate as a result.

    "Did I say 500 tons of sarin and 25,000 liters of anthrax? I meant 'weapons of mass destruction-related program activities.'" (-5.25, -5.64)

    by Mathwiz on Mon Feb 02, 2004 at 01:31:19 PM PDT

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