Financing the Democrats against Bush in waiting
by Jerome Armstrong
Sun Feb 22, 2004 at 05:15:46 PM PDT
Quick math would lead one to see that Kerry's spending in 2003 of $27 million added $11.2 million in January, putting him at over $38 million beginning in February.
So, for Kerry to keep his pledge to abide in spending less than $45 Million before the Democratic nominee was chosen, he'd had less than $7 million to spend beginning February 1st, three weeks ago, until... Hey, has Kerry's campaign yet admitted to breaking the pledge? The nominee has not been chosen, but the expenditure math thus far ($11M in Jan, 3 weeks into Feb) leads to the conclusion that Kerry has already spent $7 Million in Feb, and is now over $45 million.
John Edwards is abiding by the public financing laws for matching funds, so he's limited to $45 million in total expenditures. Through January, Edwards has raised $22.5 million, including $5 million in public financing. Beginning with February, that left Edwards with $22.5 million remaining in funds available to him, combined from both raised and matching (with the next public matching infusion due on March 1st).
As for Bush:
As for Edwards, in the short-term, with the matching funds, he's probably on parity with Kerry for the March primaries; but in the long-haul of the next four months, he's going to be riding on a shoestring and walloped in bought advertising.
For Kerry, he can always pile on Fleet-laden leveraged debt that Heinz can pay off later, and it is what it is. In the short-term against Edwards, Kerry's left with arguing some thin-cred nuance like, "the media has declared me the nominee". But if Edwards catches, Kerry's also going to have to figure out a way to nuance that his spending more than $45 million, besides breaking his pledge, is about beating George Bush and the special interests and not just about grabbing an advantage in the primaries.
Right now, "Kerry broke his pledge" is probably not the kind of headline that Kerry's campaign wants to see right now, but that's the gamble of a gimmick that he took.
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