Daily Kos

Spain Votes Today

by Jerome Armstrong

Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 01:39:08 PM PDT

It's been generally accepted, prior to the Madrid bombing, that the Popular Party (PP) would hold onto their electoral advantage in Spain's Parliament.  The BBC reported that the PP, now led by Mariano Rajoy, the hand-picked successor of Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar, was leading over the opposition Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE), led by Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, by 4.5%, but the poll was just before the bombing.  Aznar & the PP leapt to blaming the ETA, which proved to be pre-mature, and now called out as politically motivated.  With al-Qaeda involvement seemingly confirmed as being the source-- their first attacks on the West since the attacks on Sept 11, 2001 in the US-- most reporters within Spain are stating that the results are impossible to predict.

If photos like this are an indication, and the forecasted record turnout does materialize, Aznar's party, which went along with the Bush-led invasion of Iraq against popular opinion, will get a huge stamp of rejection in Spain today.

   

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Permalink | 150 comments

  •  Election (none / 0)

    I may be proven wrong, but I think you're indulging in undue optimism again.  If the election were a couple of weeks later, maybe Anzar would have been hurt.  But there is likely a short-term "rallying effect" that will propel Anzar to a margin greater than the 5% lead his party had going in.  I hope I'm proven wrong, but I think's that's the likely outcome.

    A proud member of the "far left."

    by Paleo on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 01:43:56 PM PDT

    •  Anzar is not on the ticket (none / 0)

      And speculating that whatever personal popularity he has is going to carry over to his 'hand picked' successor is just that - speculation.

      Pollkatz: Bush Approval

      by Bruce Webb on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:07:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Aznar (none / 0)

        What I get from responding directly.  On the other hand I guess I have a point: neither Anzar or Aznar is on the ticket (or Nasser for that matter).

        Pollkatz: Bush Approval

        by Bruce Webb on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:10:01 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  The whole discussion is speculation (none / 0)

        and why I object to Jerome's prijection of the vote as a referendum on Iraq.  As I said, Spaniards are clear on the Iraq War - 90% opppose.

        If PP wins, it is in spite of Aznar's Iraq policy.  

        Everybody dies alone.

        by Armando on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:11:20 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The media (none / 0)

          will frame this to be all about the bombings, and as a referendum on Bush. If the current majority party loses, they will brush over it. If they win, this will be seen as a wonderful sign of Bush's chances in November.

          by JamesB3 on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:25:32 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Speculation is what we do (none / 1)

          We spend half our time second guessing polls - what's your point?

          It is a fair question to ask whether the electorate will make a distinction between committing a limited number of troops at a time when it was at least plausible that Saddam had WMD  and inviting al-Qaeda to blow up 199 people because Aznar decided to out-poodle Blair.

          Pollkatz: Bush Approval

          by Bruce Webb on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:29:19 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Well yeah of course (none / 0)

            which is why I was perplexed by this comment of yours "And speculating that whatever personal popularity he has is going to carry over to his 'hand picked' successor is just that - speculation."

            Sort of gratuitous wasn't it, unless you intended some negative connotation, which I inferred.  I was making the point you just made - to say something is speculation here is stating the obvious.

            My point is that Jerome's speculation could be harmful as it invites the view that a PP win enbraces Aznar's Iraq policy.  I think this point has already been won - 90% of Spaniards oppose the Iraq War.

            A PP win would be in SPITE of this opposition.

            Everybody dies alone.

            by Armando on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:43:05 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I am going to Disneyland! (none / 1)

              Actually to a bar to watch basketball so I will have to leave this as a parting shot.

              Maybe it is my bad, but my impression is that you were challenging the legitimacy of Jerome's post.  And while I was going to blash JamesB3 for his blind link Toronto Star (bad form James) he actually links to a very important article that suggests that many Spanish voters are showing up precisely on this issue - money quote:
              "I didn't intend to vote, but changed my mind," said Javi Martin, 30, who works for a TV station in Madrid. "And not because of the attacks, but because of the responsibility of the Popular Party. They gave out information drop by drop. It would have benefited them if it were ETA.''

              Pollkatz: Bush Approval

              by Bruce Webb on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 03:27:08 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  Not a referendum on Iraq (none / 0)

          I would be a referendum on whether the Spanish think the best way to ensure Spain's security is to follow America's lead or not.

          99% perspiration

          by DaveOinSF on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 05:32:54 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Al Qaeda voids any rallying effect... (none / 0)

      I think the PP's premature rush to blame ETA nullified any rallying effect the bombings would have had.  The aftermath of the bombing will do one thing very succesfully, it will bring Spain's huge number of radicals and activists to the polls to boot the conservatives.  This election, with the Al Qaeda connection coming out right before the voting will be a referendum on Iraq, and the conservatives will lose.  My friends in Spain are telling me that most people are feeling like this happened because of the Spanish government's support of Bush, I would be very surprised to see the Partido Popular come away with a victory today.

      Looking for a Change I can Believe in.

      by Cathan on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:44:29 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Very surprised? (none / 0)

        Surprised maybe, but very surprised?  Your friends are Socialists an optimistic I gather.  Well, we'll see.

        Everybody dies alone.

        by Armando on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:53:42 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  What was Aznar afraid of? (4.00 / 2)

          IF the bombing was not mean to have an effect of the election, how then do you explain the alacrity with which Aznar and his party pointed a finger at ETA?

          IF they were not afraid, politically afraid, Spaniards pointing the finger of ultimate responsibility at Aznar for joining the chimp, which resulted in this horror for the Spanish people, why then ascertain so forcefully that it was ETA, when every man and his dog knew that this did not fit the pattern of ETA bombings?

          Aznar was concerned about something and he made a fool of himself trying to avoid it. Why?

          by Thrasyboulos on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 03:08:13 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  told you so (none / 0)

          Yes, very surprised, I was in the marches in Madrid last year when the war was breaking out, it wasn't just the socialists who were pissed, and with this bombing it is just difficult for me to comprehend the PP keeping control... and looks like they lost it.  My friends aren't socialists, they just know what's up.

          Looking for a Change I can Believe in.

          by Cathan on Mon Mar 15, 2004 at 01:23:48 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Mea culpa (none / 0)

      I'm glad I added the "could be wrong" qualification.

      A proud member of the "far left."

      by Paleo on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 06:24:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  enormous (3.50 / 4)

    If the Socialists win in Spain today it will be a staggering repudiation, in Europe, of the way that Bush has responded to 9/11. It will be a giant victory for Kofi Annan, the European majority and for all of us who want to fight Al Qaeda but are opposed to the war in Iraq. It will also more immediately test Bush, who will need to respond graciously to a left victory, but who, in my opinion, will probably be unable to do so.

    "We have found the weapons of mass destruction" -- George Bush, May 30, 2003

    by awol on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 01:44:45 PM PDT

    •  And if they lose? (none / 0)

      Is it an embrace?  Let's not play this game please!

      Everybody dies alone.

      by Armando on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:13:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  if they lose (4.00 / 2)

        It's a blow, in my opinion. But it was already a blow to see the socialists unable to gain traction on Anzar up to this point. And it is already significant that Anzar's law-and-order party had no compunction about looking away from the perpetrators of this heinous attack toward the ETA for crass partisan reasons. This shows so much. I agree that any optimism about a Socialist victory (as Paleo first points out) is really misplaced. But to call attention to the elections, and imagine what the consequences of either a victory or defeat for Anzar would be, is really important -- and not a game at all. I was just talking to a friend who had casually followed the bombings and didn't know there was an election is Spain today. The election has been downplayed in the U.S. media (unlike the European press) and is, I think, remarkably important -- particularly if Anzar goes down.

        "We have found the weapons of mass destruction" -- George Bush, May 30, 2003

        by awol on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:24:15 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Now see (none / 0)

          that's where we disagree.  The Socialists' inability to gain traction on Aznar is as much about them as Aznar's personal popularity.

          They have done a horrible job in opposition and are incoherent and without stron political figures.

          Frankly, the discussion here strikes me as provincial in the extreme - viewing Spain's elections through our prism.

          Everybody dies alone.

          by Armando on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:33:43 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  yes -- we do disagree (4.00 / 2)

            The main "prism" that is operating in U.S. coverage of Spain, I think, is ignoring the elections altogether. Thus, there is much more attention to this in European papers.

            I don't know too much about domestic Spanish politics, and, from what I understand, I'd agree that the Socialists have run a poor campaign, and were unable to take advantage of Spanish opposition to the war.

            However, I do have some knowledge of European Socialism, and it's clear that the left in Spain is united -- for good reason -- in opposition to Bush's dangerous militarism. It's also clear that the Madrid bombings are hugely significant as a) the biggest crisis in Aznar's admiinstration (and I can't think of an example where such a crisis has come so late in an election cycle) b) a major challenge to European electoral democracy as such.
            For this reason, it is truly riveting to watch this election unfold -- and it will be quite revealing if, as much of the press has speculated, Spanish voters react to the shocking duplicity and cynicism of the PP in the last 72 hours by getting (justifiably) angry at Aznar, rather than (as might also happen of course) equating "rallying around the flag" with supporting a militaristic status quo.

            "We have found the weapons of mass destruction" -- George Bush, May 30, 2003

            by awol on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 03:08:32 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Great post (none / 0)

              Now that I liked.  And that is a far cry from implying that this election is a referendum on the Iraq Debacle, a perspective that to me does suffer from provincialism.

              So maybe we don't disagree.

              Everybody dies alone.

              by Armando on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 03:15:08 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  agreement (none / 0)

                Two former Clarkies find common ground.

                Maybe it's wanting to have my cake and eat it too, but it seems to me that if the PP wins it won't be a referendum on Iraq (since, as you've been pointing out they've had a clear lead in the polls despite clear opposition to the war in Spain) but if the socialists make unexpected gains it would have big implications for U.S./European relations, Bush, and the war on Iraq.

                But, of course, it makes no sense to expect the unexpected.

                "We have found the weapons of mass destruction" -- George Bush, May 30, 2003

                by awol on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 03:32:42 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  In fact, merits a separate diary (none / 0)

              I think the issue of world electoral reaction to US policy and it's complete lack of coverage here is extremely significant.  I'd like to hear more from you on this.

              Everybody dies alone.

              by Armando on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 03:17:57 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  Uh, don't hold your breath (none / 0)

    Spaniards are like everybody else, first reaction, raly round the flag.  Here the flag is represented by the PP - I actually believe that it will be a record breaking PP win.

    So let's not project a PP win into a record breaking stamp of approval for the Iraq Debacle by making a loss by the PP a stamp of rejection.

    Everybody dies alone.

    by Armando on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 01:47:48 PM PDT

    •  This one's good. (none / 1)

      Spaniards are like everybody else, first reaction, raly round the flag.

      Trot out the conventional widom.

      At least with this one we'll find out immediately if CW holds or it gets blown out of the water.

      by fly on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 01:53:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Rally round the flag? (3.33 / 3)

      What flag?

      There is lot's of regional identity in Spain. (Catalan, Gallego, Andaluz etc) Moreover, the spanish state is not symbolized by the leader of its government. You're right it's too soon to tell what the outcome might be. But Spaniards are quite upset at the government's manipulation of information. Since ETA represents for the spanish what al Qaeda might symbolize for americans, many spaniards have sensed they have been deliberately misled.

      by CSTAR on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 01:59:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Guess the World Cup (none / 0)

        never made it to your viewing schedule - the Spanish flag gets waved around quite a bit there.

        BTW, my point is that let's not view this election as a referendum on Iraq, we already know how Spanirds feel about it - 90% oppose.  Jerome is setting himself up for a fall.

        Everybody dies alone.

        by Armando on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:05:12 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  The Brazilian flag (none / 0)

          got waved around a lot in world-cup matches during the military governments in Brazil in the '70s.  Armando, if Spain had just won the world cup, that surge of patriotism might have some effect on the incumbents. But this kind of soccer nationalism is quite a different beast from the patriotism that might be invoked to support the head of government in  a time of crisis.

          by CSTAR on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:23:48 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Well we just disagree (none / 0)

            I think Spain is filled with national pride and patriotism.

            I threw some snark back at you with the World Cup thing, obviously my reference to flag was figurative.  Thought I was in bounds.  Hope you took no offense.

            Everybody dies alone.

            by Armando on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:28:44 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  Remember after 911 how Bush and co (none / 0)

    Numbers went throught the roof, and stayed that way for well over 2 years inspite of gross stupidity and recklessness.

    Now, I am not saying that will happen for the government in power here, but I do predict some kind of rally effect to take place.

    by ECH on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 01:50:34 PM PDT

  •  Kiss of death... (4.00 / 2)

    How's it feel George?

    People use you as a symbol of disgust.

    by fly on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 01:51:17 PM PDT

  •  Well... (none / 1)

    Let's just hope Spain isn't using Diebold voting machines.

    by highlander on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 01:54:45 PM PDT

  •  Europe (4.00 / 2)

    I'm watching various people on Sunday tv put forth the idea that the Madrid bombings are causing a change of attitude in Europe which will make them take terrorism "more seriously," which will bring them closer to Bush's view of things.(They keep referring to an editorial in Le Monde.) Good grief. Europe could take terrorism "more seriously"--as if they don't now!--without moving an inch closer to Bush's view of things. To some of us and to most of Europe, taking terrorism seriously has always meant focusing on Al Q. instead of detouring into Iraq--a point that Dean made extremely well this morning in MTP, and a point that the Madrid bombings substantiate.

    by Kansas on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 01:54:47 PM PDT

    •  that's silly (4.00 / 2)

      Europe takes terrorism more seriously than the US since the spate of terror attacks there in the 1970s. The new twist is that they are now looking at attacks not from internal factions (e.g., the IRA, ETA) but from foreigners. Either way, they have a lot more experience with terror than the Americans.

      by RowdyBrown on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:00:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Experience? (none / 0)

        Yeah, like a beaten wife has experience in fighting.

        You'd think that with all of that experience, there wouldn't be som many terrorist organizations thriving there.

        Catapultam Habeo. Nisi pecuniam omnem mihi dabis, ad caput tuum saxum immane mittam.

        by Sasquatch on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 03:45:12 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Not a new twist (none / 1)

        The French have had quite a bit of history being subjected to terrorism by Algerian militants.  They have a long history dealing with Islamic fundamentalists, so one would have thought their opinions and experience would have meant something to the Americans.  

        And let's not forget that Europeans have had to confront Palestinian terrorism head on - Achille Lauro, Munich Olympics.

        99% perspiration

        by DaveOinSF on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 05:53:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Andy Sullivan speak (none / 1)

      He is touting this Le Monde position, and the "everyone but John Kerry and the Democrats get it, terrorists are bad bad bad!!!"

      If the current majority party win today in Spain the media is going to turn this into a huge ode to Bush. Like they don't already turn everything into an ode to Bush anyway.

      There are many people in Europe who've had to live with terror every day of their lives. The current meme that they are being taught a lesson, and that they were all frog-eating cowards before 3/11, is about as xenophobic and as narrow-minded as anything I've ever seen from the SCLM. It's astounding how much time these people have to spend thumping their chests to remind us of how superior we (read: anyone who votes Republican) are.

      by JamesB3 on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:02:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Nonsense (none / 0)

      Europeans won't change their opinion because of one massive bombing. Really, if Bush were to die tomorrow, many would celebrate it with champagne. They hate this bastard and will still hate it whatever happens.
      And frankly, who takes Le Monde seriously, apart from handfuls of snobby Parisians pseudo-intellectuals?

      Americans placed the stamp of approval on the least justifiable military action since Hitler invaded Poland. Paul C. Roberts

      by Clueless Joe on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 03:08:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  diff between Spain and US (none / 1)

    It's true that the U.S. rallied around Bush, but the majority of Americans favored the war. The situation is very different in Spain, where 90% of them opposed the war. I think that makes them MUCH less likely to vote PP today, and much more likely to be really, really angry.

    by Kansas on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 01:58:17 PM PDT

    •  I agree... (4.00 / 2)

      As I observed at Eschaton the other day when Atrios was musing about CW, I can't think that any attack helps incumbents at this point.  

      It's cliched to say 9/11 changed everything here, but it certainly did in this sense: we learned how vulnerable we were, and the American public turned to the only guy available to protect us.  If an attack happened on US soil any time leading up to our election, I have to think that people would view it as a definite failure of BushCo.  He got a pass because he was newly installed when 9/11 happened, it was such a shock, and nobody at the time knew just how badly he fucked things up before then.  Now after years of hearing Bush say we're "safer, stronger", an attack would pop that balloon really fast.  No chance to blame Clinton this time.

      I think there could be a similar, but even more intense reaction to Aznar.  Voting ends at 1900GMT, so I guess we'll know in a few hours.

      Visit my damn blog: Dohiyi Mir

      by NTodd on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:08:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  rally around the flag... (4.00 / 2)

       I don't know one way or the other, but it seems to me there is a significant difference between 9/11 and the Madrid bombings which may mean they are perceived differently by the voters ... the difference is surprise.
       9/11 was shocking for its unexpectedness.  
       The Madrid bombings were not.    
       While we all know Bushco were incompetent before (and after 9/11), the voters didn't blame them because they didn't forsee such things happening themselves and therefore didn't blame Bushco for not forseeing it either.  
       Not so in Madrid.  The world has been waiting for another attack, and the voters can legitimatly blame the government in power that allows one to happen.

    Patriotism is upholding the Constitution. Everything else is BS.

    by Nathan in MD on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 01:59:17 PM PDT

    •  Good point (none / 1)

      Not only a lack of surprise, but there had been pre-attack debate that the action in Iraq made Spain less safe, not more safe.  

      I wonder how many folks in the Bush Administration are keeping close tabs on results in Spain today?

      When they proved there can be hope Wherever there are dreams. - Horslips

      by PSoTD on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:02:24 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  and the forecasted record turnout does materialize (4.00 / 2)

    and the forecasted record turnout does materialize

    Five hours after polls opened, 41 percent of registered voters had cast ballots, a 5.5 percent increase over four years ago, Spain's electoral commission said.

    When they proved there can be hope Wherever there are dreams. - Horslips

    by PSoTD on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 01:59:38 PM PDT

  •  Effect (none / 0)

    I think the bombing will only serve to polarize the bases. I doubt the woman holding that sign in the photo was a swing voter.


    "Never let your sense of morals prevent you from doing what is right." - Salvor Hardin

    by Zackpunk on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:04:16 PM PDT

  •  You can follow the Spanish results (4.00 / 3)

    when their polls close at 20:00 CET (in about two hours) over at El Mundo's web site.

    A rough English translation of that page after being run through babelfish.altavista.com can be accessed here.

    by emjaycue on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:09:42 PM PDT

  •  The coverup (none / 0)

    I dont think the 'rally behind the flag' theory holds in this case.  Today's news is that that the Popular Party initially tried to shift blame from Al Qaeda to ETA for political purposes.  Those who were against the war (almost all) but disinclined to vote due to the strong economy are now re-energized, especially if they dont attribute the economy to Aznar's policies.

    The funny thing about all this is that the Popular Party was leading by 10 points last week, and I believe voters would have rallied behind them if they had just said up front that evidence pointed to Al Qaeda.  As is often the case, the coverup causes the damage that otherwise would not have materialized.  

    By the same token, we shouldnt read too much into it if the Socialists win today.  If Al Qaeda interprets this to mean that they can affect W's reelection by an October terrorist attack (sigh), they are mistaken, as Americans will rally behind the flag.

    by sny on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:09:53 PM PDT

  •  Spain 6 hours ahead of EST (none / 0)

    So it's 6:15pm in Spain. Where are our exit polls? Does Spain have a Drudge or an NRO to give us some hint of how the voting went? If not, good for them. If so, where are they?

    by RowdyBrown on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:11:11 PM PDT

  •  I didn't support the Iraq war (none / 0)

    but I find it disturbing the people who say if we had only had not allied ourselves with the US, Al Queda would have left us alone. So Al Quedea (or fear of AQ) should now be making every nation's foreign policy?

    And does anyone who knows about Al Queda seriously believe that the West could have avoided more attacks by staying out of Iraq? Maybe Iraq inflamed them and others, but the attacks were going to come anyway.

    I don't care who wins the election today, but I dislike the idea of countries making their decisions to avoid being bombed by Al Queda. The fundamental problem is the bomber, not the bombed.

    by mishar on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:16:49 PM PDT

    •  OT (none / 1)

      but the argument is different, the distraction of our military in the Iraq Debacle kept us from fight the terrorists.

      In other words, we're not criticizing Bush for going after terrorists, we're attacking him for NOT going after terrorists.

      Everybody dies alone.

      by Armando on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:25:02 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  ok (none / 0)

        I agree with that argument.

        And if the Spanish people reject Aznar's party for going to war, then all kudos to them. I just don't like the argument that some in Spain (and in the US) make -- that Al Queda is only attacking us because we provoked them. I don't agree.

        Whether Aznar or Bush has done the best possible job of fighting Al Queda is another story.

        by mishar on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:32:15 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well (none / 0)

          you see, I don't think the vote will let us know if that is why they reject Aznar's party. One thing is clear, 90% of Spaniards opposed the Iraq Debacle.

          Everybody dies alone.

          by Armando on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:36:01 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Indeed (none / 0)

          Let's say that if Spain hadn't gone in Iraq, London or Rome would've been hit. Members if the "coalition" are primary targets, other countries are secondary targets - which means they'll get hit, but later or in a less massive way. Not that it will save them from any attack - I mean, the Morocco and Bali bombings are proof enough of that.

          Americans placed the stamp of approval on the least justifiable military action since Hitler invaded Poland. Paul C. Roberts

          by Clueless Joe on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 03:11:48 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  That's right. (none / 0)

            turkey got hit badly -- didn't they refuse us passageway?

            AQ existed before the invasion of Iraq, had attacked numerous Western targets. Their agenda is rather murky, but it seems safe to say that anyone who opposed them in any way would be ultimately potential targets.

            by mishar on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 03:26:08 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  The distinction is that... (4.00 / 3)

      the Spanish by and large didn't support the Aznar's alliance with Bush. The nation can thus see this not as a consequence of a national undertaking, but as fallout from Aznar's personal and political calculations. Spain's armed forces are much smaller than those in France and the United Kingdom. There was never much that Spain could give to the United States in the Iraq war other than diplomatic cover. Aznar was willing to give it in order to make of himself a bigger man.

      by Brian CB on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:49:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  He could have tried... (none / 0)

        ...platform shoes

        Aznar was willing to give it in order to make of himself a bigger man.

        It would have been easier and safer for him.

        by fly on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 03:09:07 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  So true (none / 0)

        Canada is in a similar situation militarily, and the since-retired PM Jean Chrétien saved his scandal-ridden government's reputation by taking the courageous (and obvious, it seemed) decision to only support an Iraqi invasion if sanctioned by the UN. And Canadian economic and social ties to the US are far deeper than Spain's, so there was much to risk. (Of course, Bush will screw Canada anyway if it helps his chances in '04 so maybe the risk was phony, who knows?)

        Nevertheless, the current feeling here is one of trepidation; our troops - presently in Afghanistan - are recently getting into more provocative situations against al Qaeda. Canadians have no qualm with helping quelch this menace, believe me, but we sure couldn't see going after Saddam as a part of that fight, nor as a particularly intelligent move on Bush's part.

        Now we will likely have a federal election here in May or June, and if al Qaeda comes out of this believing they can affect the outcome of an election through a single act of gross inhumanity,... well, we sure don't want to go there now, do we?

        What do you think, Canuck Coot?

        "If you're after getting the honey, don't go killing all the bees" Joe Strummer

        by Scott in Montreal on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 03:09:41 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Spain could have (none / 1)

      "And does anyone who knows about Al Queda seriously believe that the West could have avoided more attacks by staying out of Iraq? "

      The United States was and will always be the target of al Qaeda until we root out the last murderer.  But from an al Qaeda point of view Spain allied itself with the Crusader and this is the blow back.  Which given that the whole Spanish involvement in the first place was the result of Aznar's attempt to become America's second poodle, this was (to put it mildly) not in Spain's national security interests.

      Pollkatz: Bush Approval

      by Bruce Webb on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:56:11 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Rumsfeld and Rice (4.00 / 3)

    Anybody notice that these two clowns, who have always been the first blame Al Qaeda for everything including terrorism in Iraq, are saying not to jump to conclusions about Al Qaeda in Madrid, and strongly insinuating ETA...

    It certainly couldn't be that their positions are motivated by politics--Spanish politics--that is.

    by MediaFreeze on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:29:35 PM PDT

  •  The State of Spanish Electorate (4.00 / 5)

    First, the election was breaking away from the popular party in recent days - down from 11% to a mere 3.5% lead in the polls in a little less than two weeks.

    Why? Economics, fear that Aznar's government had been withholding information and playing politics.

    The first reaction is to rally around the flag - the second is to question leadership that forces unpopular policies and does not get results. Aznar had not gotten results with his "get tough" policies with ETA, and he had not gotten results in the GWOT by help Gee Wot Bush Jr.

    What many liberals here forget is that the "rally round the flag" routine only works for so long. Then people start looking at the person holding the flag and say "so what are you doing? get in their and fix this".

    The right wing basked in the political power of the rally, but then proceded to lie to hold on to power. This reeks of one thing, a word which is anathema in normal political debate, but which is creeping in. That word is fascism.

    In Spain, that the government incessantly blamed ETA, even as it had concrete evidence that Islamic extremists had been involved and claimed credit - and there was absolutely no evidence of ETA involvement, and ETA issued its first ever denial of an attack - is the smoking gun of fascism. Protesters in Spain shouted "murderer" at Aznar as he cast his vote. One spanish language chat blamed Aznar for lying to the people to save the election - because, as everyone admitted, an ETA attack would have helped the PP.

    The curtain drawn over the truth by the right wing is cracking, and the prediction that "a terrorist attack helps the right" isn't correct, simply because the right wing has now been in power for years, and people now blame them for what goes wrong, where as before they accepted excuses that the right wing had inherited problems.

    While the PP may hold on - since the powers that be favor it forming a government -  it seems very unlikely that it will retain an absolute majority, and may well have to accept a "government of national unity". Any such government will have to pull back from supporting the "slag and bag" strategy pursued by Bush Jr.

    String Quartets #7 & #8

    by Stirling Newberry on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:30:01 PM PDT

    •  Your last paragraph (none / 0)

      is my point.  3 days is a short period of time.

      Givne the high risk of a PP victory, why would I want to have this election framed as a referendum on the Iraq War?  My answer, I don't.  Especially since I know that 90% of Spaniards oppose the Iraq Debacle.

      Everybody dies alone.

      by Armando on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:49:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Disparate results according to Spanish media ... (none / 0)

      It's early yet and El Pais is reporting disparate results in the election so far. When there were still two hours of voting time, the turnout was already at 63% - 8 points above the 2000 election.

      Depending on which media you prefer, the Socialists (PSOE, who 125 seats in the current parliament) are winning anywhere from 141-159 seats with anywhere from 38%-41.4% of the popular vote.

      The Popular Party (of the right, with 183 current seats) is winning from 150-169 seats (36.9%-40.6%)).

      Six other parties (with 40 current seats) are spliting the rest of votes.

      I am an anti-imperialist. I am opposed to having the eagle put its talons on any other land. -- Mark Twain

      by Meteor Blades on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 04:42:07 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Canuck Coot (4.00 / 2)

    The outcome of the Spanish election, I think, is largely irrelevant. No matter who gets the "formal" nod, the real issue before the Spanish people, like all people in the west is, their relationship with the U.S.A.

    If you want to run with the U.S. wolf, you've got to expect to meet up with its enemies. As Spain indeed just did. If, as a people, you don't know what picking up the U.S. American cause means, in all its ramifications, then you are damned fools. And we are all responsible for what we allow our governments to do in our name. Doing nothing is also a choice with consequences.

    by Canuck Coot on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:33:15 PM PDT

    •  oops... (none / 0)

      I'm not exactly sure how my moniker wound up in the title line. Apology.

      by Canuck Coot on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:34:31 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Agree On All Points (none / 0)

      I absolutely agree with your post.  Cretien's stance was the best thing he did and it did take courage to stand up to Bush like that.

      (I wonder how well Paul Martin will do.)

      I also think it's very iffy to place much stock in this being just a referendum on the Spanish involvement in Iraq as I have not clue one what other issues the Spaniards are dealing with like the economy or whatever.

      BTW, have you seen the bumpersticker which shows an outline map of the US with a big red mapleleaf in it and captioned "PROUD TO BE A SOUTH CANADIAN"?

      You can't always tell the truth because you don't always know the truth - but you can ALWAYS be honest.

      by mattman on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 04:33:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  oops, i crapped my pants! (4.00 / 3)

    Blue Jersey: All the news that slips from print.

    by jmelli on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:40:13 PM PDT

  •  Toronto Star article (none / 0)

    http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&a mp;cid=1079265664422&call_pageid=968332188492&col=968793972154

    by JamesB3 on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:42:09 PM PDT

  •  Spanish Interior Ministry (none / 0)

    Follow results here as they come in here.  No data as of this posting

    by CSTAR on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:50:16 PM PDT

  •  See-through voting boxes (none / 0)

    What a contrast to our black-box voting machines. The literal transparency of their process is awesome.

    Blue Jersey: All the news that slips from print.

    by jmelli on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 02:53:01 PM PDT

    •  You can't beat Mussolini (none / 0)

      Transparent envelopes, so that you can see which ballot the voters picked. The wonder is that there were still 0.15% of the Italians who didn't vote for the fascists.

      Americans placed the stamp of approval on the least justifiable military action since Hitler invaded Poland. Paul C. Roberts

      by Clueless Joe on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 03:16:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  High turnout could make a difference (none / 1)

    We will know the results in Spain soon enough, but by all accounts the turn out will be way up over the last election.  This could help the left.  Apparently in the last couple of elections the low turn out has helped the PP because younger leftwing voters are bored and disillusioned with the leftwing parties (where have I heard that before?).  There has been a lot of speculation that the higher turnout today will be largely fueled by younger more leftwing voters who are riled at how Aznar's party tried to cover things up.

    Let's face it, in any election, the church-going, nostaligic for Franco, white collar types who are backbone of support for the PP will always vote in very high numbers.  The types of people who will flock to the polls in large numbers but who were going to abstain are more likely to vote PSOE.

    Smug Canadian who hates Bush

    by CanuckObserver on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 03:14:01 PM PDT

    •  turn out is up (none / 0)

      TV Leon reports that voter turn-out is way up. Compared to the last general election at 18:00 hrs it was 11% higher in the Basque countries, 22% higher in the province of Catalunia and 8% higher in Madrid.

      It looks good for the left.

      Ancora il ghiacciaio, ancora la strada infernale che adesso e' franata in bensi' sei punti e poi di nuovo ad Islamabad.

      by Breitmann on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 03:38:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Conspiracy theorists unite...or untie.... (none / 0)

    you know, I've never been much of a conspiracy nut until Bushco made me doubt everything...

    ...but wouldn't a "good" way to have the American public come to expect an attack right before election day be to stage one right before the election of one of our allies?

    ...I'm just talking out loud here - flame me all you want - but a good way for Bush to innoculate himself would be: near-election terrorist attack on ally; said ally loses election; Bushco spins result to American public as "do you really want to let the terrorists determine the result of our election!?"

    ok - I'm going to go over to the grassy-knoll-never-landed-on-the-moon-with-Lincoln's-secretary-named-Kennedy chatroom now....

    It was all so easy in 2004 when I was for Howard Dean.

    by el ganador on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 03:25:13 PM PDT

    •  no... (none / 0)

      If it were true (I sure as hell hope not) ... I think it would have the opposite effect.  People would expect Bushco to save them from an attact, not exonerate him from failure to do so.

      Patriotism is upholding the Constitution. Everything else is BS.

      by Nathan in MD on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 03:33:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Voter turnout (none / 1)

    The voter turnout today in Spain 2 hours before the polls close is 63,06%. Useless info, but in comparison, 51.2% of registered US voters turned out for the presidentials of 2000.

    by paper tigress on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 03:34:40 PM PDT

    •  Two minutes (none / 0)

      In two minutes Spanish TV will release the first projections.

      Ancora il ghiacciaio, ancora la strada infernale che adesso e' franata in bensi' sei punti e poi di nuovo ad Islamabad.

      by Breitmann on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 03:50:45 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I would guess that is of eligible voters (none / 0)

      In most European countries, you don't have to register to vote. I'd guess that turn-out is measured in percent of who might vote, not only those who've registered.

      Actually, the whole US "registering in order to vote" thingy boggles the mind of this European.

      It is time to bring back this time-honoured tradition: We never go to war because we want to, we only go to war because we have to.

      by PoliticGeek Pro on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 03:54:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Democracy for you (none / 0)

        People can express their will so often in polls that you have to register them months before that "important event" occurs.
        (in case you're wondering, yes, that was mighty sarcastic)

        Americans placed the stamp of approval on the least justifiable military action since Hitler invaded Poland. Paul C. Roberts

        by Clueless Joe on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 04:52:28 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Exit polls show dead heat or narrow Socialist win! (none / 0)

    Eco-consulting: PP 150-154, PSOE 154-158
    Sigma Dos: PP 153 -161, PSOE 152-159

    Smug Canadian who hates Bush

    by CanuckObserver on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 03:55:28 PM PDT

    •  A tie means (none / 0)

      that the PP has lost over thirty seats...

      by emjaycue on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 03:59:05 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Ojala (none / 0)

        El Mundo projects PP loses 30 seats. Go! Go! Go! Looks like Greeens+Socialist may have majority!

        by paper tigress on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 04:03:13 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  with some bedfellows (none / 0)

          I am an eeeediot.  Just checking out Spanish political parties a to g only and there's more out there than the Greens

          ASAMBLEA DE ANDALUCIA
          ASAMBLEA DE IZQUIERDAS-INICIATIVA POR ANDALUCIA
          ANDECHA ASTUR
          ALIANZA PARA EL DESARROLLO Y LA NATURALEZA
          ALTERNATIVA MAGA NACIONALISTA
          ALTERNATIVA POPULAR CANARIA
          ARALAR-ZUTIK
          AGRUPACION SOCIAL INDEPENDIENTE
          PARTIDO DE LOS AUTONOMOS Y PROFESIONALES
          ALIANZA POR LA UNIDAD NACIONAL
          ALTERNATIVA POR GRAN CANARIA
          BLOC NACIONALISTA VALENCIA-ESQUERRA VERDA
          BLOQUE NACIONALISTA GALEGO
          COALICION CANARIA
          CONVERGENCIA CIUDADANA DEL SURESTE
          CONVERGENCIA DE DEMOCRATAS DE NAVARRA
          CENTRO DEMOCRATICO Y SOCIAL
          CIUDADANOS EN BLANCO
          COALICION GALEGA
          CHUNTA ARAGONESISTA
          CAND. INDEPENDIENTE-EL PARTIDO DE CASTILLA Y LEON
          CONCEJU NACIONALIEGU CANTABRU
          CONVERGENCIA i UNIO
          DEMOCRACIA NACIONAL
          EUSKO ALKARTASUNA
          EUSKO ALDERDI JELTZALEA-PARTIDO NACIONALISTA VASCO
          ESQUERRA REPUBLICANA DE CATALUNYA
          ESPAÑA 2000
          EXTREMADURA UNIDA
          ELS VERDS-L'ALTERNATIVA ECOLOGISTA
          ELS VERDS-ALTERNATIVA VERDA
          ESCONS INSUBMISOS-ALT. DELS DEMOCRATES DESCONTENTS[my kinda party]
          FALANGE AUTENTICA
          FRENTE DEMOCRATICO ESPAÑOL
          LA FALANGE
          FALANGE ESPAÑOLA DE LAS JONS
          FRENTE POPULAR GALEGA
          GRUPO POLITICO HONRADEZ ABSOLUTA ESPAÑOLA

          Thanks to CSTAR for the election returns link which include the listing of the Spanish parties.
           

          by paper tigress on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 04:55:25 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Confused results (none / 0)

    on the Spanish elections.  Some have PP winning, others have PSOE winning... stay tuned.

    by emjaycue on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 03:56:23 PM PDT

    •  Caution (none / 0)

      Caution! The telephone polls were taken during the last three days and probably don't take full account of the swing toward the left during the last 24 hours.

      Ancora il ghiacciaio, ancora la strada infernale che adesso e' franata in bensi' sei punti e poi di nuovo ad Islamabad.

      by Breitmann on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 04:02:27 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  One last comment before projections (none / 0)

    Being a European ... err, a Norwegian, I guess I am about as much at home with Spanish politics as your typical Vermonter is with state elections in Alabama. But still:

    The Norwegian punditry expects the bombings, the delayed info on the Al-Q link, and the blaming of ETA, to hurt the PP, and a socialist victory will be interpreted as a rejection of Spain's support for BushCo's Iraq war. Opposition against the war has been in th 65-70% range all along. (If my second-hand sources are accurate.)

    Spain being a multi-party system with regional parties, there are many gray shades between victory and defeat.

    It is time to bring back this time-honoured tradition: We never go to war because we want to, we only go to war because we have to.

    by PoliticGeek Pro on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 04:00:07 PM PDT

  •  Minority gov't = defeat for the PP (none / 0)

    I don't know the Spanish system works, but it seems to me that if the two big parties are more or less dead even, then who can form a stable government falls to the other parties.  The other parties are a. the Communists and b. various regionalist parties from Catalonia and the Basque region.

    Surely if the parties are dead even, the PSOE has a much better prospect of forming a coalition with the other parties than does the PP??

    Smug Canadian who hates Bush

    by CanuckObserver on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 04:02:57 PM PDT

    •  Third parties (none / 0)

      The regional parties are "nationalistic" and are likely to break for a conservative government.

      The greens and the communists will reluctantly break for the socialists, I assume.

      The outcome won't be clear until some sausages are made in parliament.

      Third parties also might consider it wise to ride the mo to the left.

      It is time to bring back this time-honoured tradition: We never go to war because we want to, we only go to war because we have to.

      by PoliticGeek Pro on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 04:06:39 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Regional parties (none / 0)

        Regional parties like in Catalunia and the Basque countries are not conservative. Quite the contrary.

        Ancora il ghiacciaio, ancora la strada infernale che adesso e' franata in bensi' sei punti e poi di nuovo ad Islamabad.

        by Breitmann on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 04:10:09 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  That's right (none / 0)

          Sure, those two parties are both at odds with PP.

          But there are reportedly other regional parties which the pundits thought would be help PP over the top.

          In the last poll, taken Tuesday, PP had already lost the majority, but was expected to be able to pull it over the top that way, i.e. with the help of some regional parties.

          It is time to bring back this time-honoured tradition: We never go to war because we want to, we only go to war because we have to.

          by PoliticGeek Pro on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 04:16:49 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  The interesting thing (none / 0)

        is that a tie basically delays the certainty in the compsition of the new government to be formed, doesn't it?

        And that may turn very much on how the aftermath of the 11-M bombings turn out over the next week or two... no?

        Looks like the spanish public has bought itself some time to digest this all.

        by emjaycue on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 04:11:06 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Crow served here (none / 0)

    Whatever the final results, I was spectacularly wrong on this - the PP was clearly hurt by the bombings and their reactions to it.

    The formation of a new government will certainly require some temprature taking.  I'm particularly interested in the performance of the Basque Separatist parties.  

    Everybody dies alone.

    by Armando on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 04:08:53 PM PDT

    •  How do you want that? (none / 0)

      Crow served here

      With a side of conventional wisdom?

      by fly on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 04:19:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm genuinely surprised (none / 0)

        I'm not sure that my view was CW, but I can tell you I reached an independent conclusion, a spectacularly wrong conclusion, but an independent one.

        Everybody dies alone.

        by Armando on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 04:22:50 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Don't feel too bad (none / 1)

          I was supposing PP would lose some seats, but I feared that you may be right and that in fact they would still perform better than what the last polls showed.
          Apparently, PP should just be glad the bombings didn't occur Monday instead of Thursday, otherwise they'd be definitely past history.

          Now, I eagerly await the backlash in other European countries as well as Japan and S Korea. Particularly in Italy, who's been designed as the next target. And Berlusconi's position seems shakier than ever, now that Bossi basically went out of order. Sure, Berlusconi may well be as stubborn as Aznar and Blair, but I wouldn't be really surprised if Fini opted for a less enthusiastic support of the Iraq war - after all, he's trying to position himself as the next leader of the right so he has to take into account the 70% of Italians that want to see the boys back.

          Americans placed the stamp of approval on the least justifiable military action since Hitler invaded Poland. Paul C. Roberts

          by Clueless Joe on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 05:02:09 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Spanish regionalist parties tend to prefer PSOE (none / 0)

    From what i have read, the PP has historically been the post-Francoist party favouring strong central government and being hostile to any devolution to the regions.  The PSOE has tended to be more sympathetic to giving the regions more powers.  Therefore I would assume that the Catalonian and Basque nationlists etc... would far prefer to back a PSOE government than a PP government.

    Smug Canadian who hates Bush

    by CanuckObserver on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 04:10:08 PM PDT

    •  Don't assume (none / 0)

      Aznar has formed governments with the Catalan parties before.  Politics makes strange bedfellows, particularly in a parliamentary system.  That said, PSOE looks like it will clearly be in a better position to form a government.

      Everybody dies alone.

      by Armando on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 04:12:16 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Regional parties and the PP and PSOE (none / 0)

        I think that what you are referring to was in 1996 when Aznar first won, but in that case the PP was just short of a majority and it was clear that the PSOE could not scrape together any coalition.  The regional parties very reluctantly backed Aznar because there was no other viable government.

        Smug Canadian who hates Bush

        by CanuckObserver on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 04:18:37 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  A little more than that (none / 0)

          the Catalan Party, historic enemies of the PP, for good and obvious reasons, turned the politics upside down by joining the PP government in exchange for big concessions from Aznar on decentralization.

          Point is, youneverknow.

          Everybody dies alone.

          by Armando on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 04:21:03 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  PP Campaign Manager Looking Like a Loser (none / 0)

    He looks shell shocked if you ask me.  This seems to have come as a surprise to them as well.

    Everybody dies alone.

    by Armando on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 04:16:50 PM PDT

  •  lastest projections (none / 0)

    with 9% of the vote in: 162 para el PSOE, 135 para el PP

    Keep it up, keep it up.

    All results should be counted by 6:00 pm EST

    by paper tigress on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 05:08:12 PM PDT

    •  Looks like a big PSOE win!! (none / 0)

      I see that the PSOE is way ahead with almost a quarter of the votes counted.  On top of that the socialistic Catalan nationalist party took 8 seats and the Communists have 4-5.  

      I doubt is the other 75% of the votes to be counted could all be from PP strongholds. So let's get out the champagne!

      Smug Canadian who hates Bush

      by CanuckObserver on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 05:15:23 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Results from _El Pais_ (none / 0)

    The ruling party got swamped, big time. With 20 percent of votes counted, the socialists have a 27-seat lead over the Popular Party — and the Catalonian party aligned with the socialists [listed as the CiU] has kept enough seats to push the socialists close to a majority.

    Can you say "backlash," boys and girls? I knew you could.

    by Greg Greene on Sun Mar 14, 2004 at 05:17:10 PM PDT