New Chance for a Dem House Seat: NY-27

Republican Rep. Jack Quinn (NY-27  [upstate, Buffalo]) announced a few weeks ago that he's giving up his seat to spend more time with his family.  Quinn was elected to this seat in '94, succeeding Dole's future VP candidate Jack Kemp.  This seat has been in the hands of the GOP forever, but it shouldn't be.  Now the Dems have a chance in NYS Assemblyman Brian Higgins, who announced yesterday that he's going to run for the seat.  No GOP'ers have announced to succeed Quinn, and all the other Dems have baclked out

Higgins, who is in his early 40s was an city council member in Buffalo before he went on to be an Assemblyman, a seat he has held for a couple years now.  Higgins' big issue is economic development and reurbanization.  This will play especially well, considering the situation in Buffalo and the fact that in the region (slightly less so in this particular district) gives the Dems a 2:1 advantage in registered Dems.

Buffalo is Union Central, with over 25 unions with active and voting memberships.  They have supported Quinn in the past, but will likely feel pressured to go to the Dem this year.  The city is ravaged by unemployment, outsourcing, and economic stagnation.  Buffalonians will respond to someone they can trust to bring back jobs.

Higgins has an excellent chance in November, and I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see this seat swing Blue.

•  Local detail

  A local newspaper is saying the local GOP is royally steamed that Quinn didn't give them any advance notice of this. It also said that this seat was Republican largely due to Quinn's personal popularity, and a would-be Republican candidate (when they find one) is going to have a hard go of it.

  I'm a few hours from Buffalo, and I can say there is a decent share of loyal Republicans around here who are very unhappy with Bush and his ideological kin. This could have some sort of an effect on the race for the seat.

  by MattK D1 on Mon May 10, 2004 at 01:39:12 PM PDT

•  No Dem primary?

  What a relief.

  I take back all the criticism I made when I heard that there was going to be a vicious primary.

  Apparently they really do want to win that seat. Good luck to them.

  Is he a pretty strong candidate?

  by JamesB3 on Mon May 10, 2004 at 01:51:11 PM PDT

  •  fairly strong

    here's what his last race for the assembly looked like:

    Brian M. Higgins, Dem. 24,098; Ind. 2,892; Con. 2,323; Wor. 1,062
    Richard A. Rydza, Rep. 9,259

    he pretty much trounced the GOPer.  it was closer in 2000, but he still won by 5-6 pts, if i remember correctly.  

    by thsisnotanexit on Mon May 10, 2004 at 03:42:57 PM PDT

•  Quinn's son

  I remember reading after he retired that some people wanted his kid to run on the GOP side-- anyone know what the latest on that potentiality is, and whether that could be one thing that got the unions to not back Higgins? After all, labor has very few friends left in the GOP these days, and the idea of creating a legacy-lifeline (or at least staying neutral in case that happenned) might be tempting to them...

  by sip1983 on Mon May 10, 2004 at 02:09:12 PM PDT

  •  haven't heard anything

    about quinn's son, but on a resume-resume basis, higgins wins hands down.  and i think the unions will recognize this.  higgins' dad was a famous councilman in buffalo, so there's a legacy there, too.

    the problem the GOP has is that this district has a huge portion of largely irish-catholic south buffalo (which ALWAYS goes D), a number of dem-leaning suburbs, and a couple of center-right suburbs.  however, higgins currently represents portions of all of these areas.  the major suburbs in this district all have Dem mayors, so there's no prominent GOPer who can really step up.

    my guess is the unions will be relieved to stop backing a GOPer.

    by thsisnotanexit on Mon May 10, 2004 at 03:46:42 PM PDT

    •  one more thing on the unions

      in 2000, quinn was challenged by 32-year-old john fee.  fee had some local business experience but didn't have any elected experience.

      however, at least several major unions automatically endorsed fee because of the D next to his name.  they later pulled their endorsements after some hardcore politicking and bitching by quinn and his cronies.

      without quinn to keep them on a leash, the unions can feel free to do what they want and endorse higgins.

      by thsisnotanexit on Mon May 10, 2004 at 03:51:36 PM PDT

•  Keep the local news a-comin

  Remember, we're in this not just for federal offices, but to take back our government at all levels.

  by Kaushansky on Mon May 10, 2004 at 02:33:41 PM PDT

•  Glad to hear this one looks good

  I just wanted to add, though, that the 27th was not Kemp's old district.  I know the lines have changed somewhat, but Kemp was succeeded by Bill Paxon (ugh), who was succeeded by Tom Reynolds (double ugh).  The district is now the NY 26th.

  by Historical Pessimist on Mon May 10, 2004 at 05:31:13 PM PDT

  •  good catch

    i've got it all mixed up with the crazy redistricting in the past couple of years.  everything's been realigned.

    by thsisnotanexit on Mon May 10, 2004 at 05:50:10 PM PDT