So 18 months ago I made a prediction, and got nothing but blank stares and laughs. My prediction was that Dean would be the Dem nominee. Certainly that's not guaranteed yet, but it has become a mainstream expectation.
I will now make another prediction that will guarantee some poking from some of you. At least until it becomes conventional wisdom...
Here goes:
Dean will win the general election next year with a very clear margin of victory. Not a Reagan landslide, but not a "closely divided electorate." He'll have a mandate.
Here's how I see it. Dean is a very savvy politician. I don't for a second believe that he's frontrunner because he's a liberal who happens to appeal to the hardcore base. He just knows how to win the nomination, he's exciting the right people at the right time. And he'll do the same come general election time. My sense is taht as President, he'll lead as a rational eclectic and redefine Democratic politics, something that's long overdue.
The way I see it, Dean will systematically target Bush's credibility in the general, and lead many Americans to question Bush's motives (something they don't do now). And because of his ability to dominate one news cycle after the other, his ideas will be heard and will stick. He will in fact raise impressively competetive funds through small donations, bringing his current campaign rhetoric to reality. And because of his relentless ability to stand and fight back with indignation (an unusual characteristic for a Democrat), the Republican attacks will ultimately hurt him less than any modern Democratic candidate.
He'll end up winning several states Gore lost in 2000: Nevada, Arizona, New Hampshire, Louisiana, West Virginia, Ohio, and Missouri for starters.
I'm basing this not on some whimsical desire, be on a careful analysis of our political landscape, taking into account how Bush has shifted the Republican party and how that will affect their coalition and our turnout, if we play our cards right.
I even think Dean will win a majority in both houses of Congress, most dramatically he'll help turn around dozens of seats in the House.
And, this part is whimsical desire, but nonetheless a real possibility... Bush's astonishing failures may end the myth that Republican is the party of fiscal responsibility and of national security. We will see the dawn of a new Democratic age in America, one that will last for decades... a victory to progressive ideals that will ultimately be attributed to none other than George W. Bush and the fall of the modern Republican party.