Great Oregon Poll

ARG has a new poll of Oregon voters showing Kerry beating Bush 50% to 42%, with Nader drawing 4%.  In a two-man race, Kerry wins 50% to 43%.  The poll was conducted July 19-22 and has a 4% margin of error.

Some other tidbits from the poll:

* Of Democrats polled, Kerry is favored 85% to 8%.
Of Republicans polled, Bush is favored 80% to 11%.  Thus, Kerry's intensity of support among those in his party is +77%, 8 points better than bush's +69%.
* Bush's fav/unfav rating is -2 (46% to 48%), whereas Kerry's is +18 (53% to 35%).  Kerry's winning the favorability category by 20 points!

Oregon has seemed to me one of the most worrisome of the battleground states that went to Gore.  I hope we continue to see Kerry's lead growing in subsequent polls.  And I hope the same happens soon in Wisconsin!  By September, I want to hear the Bill Schneiders of the media pointing out that, in all of the states Gore won in 2000, Kerry leads by at least 5% in current polls.

•  re:Other Names?

  Please feel free to suggest other names for me or to tell me how insane you think my signature is.

  by deminva on Fri Jul 23, 2004 at 01:44:38 PM PDT

  •  The 405....

    Is waaaaaay too optimistic. Bush will be getting a large bounce from his convention. Although Kerry will win the debates, I think Rove will pull something. I forecast Kerry 288, Bush 252.

    If it was 405-133, what states would you say Bush would win?

    if election night comes, and Bush gets below 150, I will be the happiest person alive.

    If election night comes, and Bush gets below 270, I will still be the happiest person alive!

    :)
    

    by weathercoins on Fri Jul 23, 2004 at 01:50:22 PM PDT

    •  re:It Is

      way too optimistic to predict 405 electoral votes for Kerry.  But I want Bush embarrassed, and I believe his embarrassment on November 2 is far from unlikely.

      This 50-50 country of ours isn't currently capable, I don't think, of a 49-state rout.  If the economy had been renewed and running full-bore for a year now, and if Iraq was sunny and peaceful, and if Bushco weren't fighting scandal after scandal, Bush would probably have a better chance at such a landslide.  I also think that it's a lot more difficult in general for any Democrat to win the reddest of red states (Utah?!) than it would be for a Republican to take a solid-blue state like Vermont.

      So I'm predicting the next best thing: The biggest possible rout of Bush in 2004.

      Here's how I get it:

      • Start with Gore states (260 EV)
      • Add the likeliest battleground pickups: FL, OH, NH, NV, and WV (321)
      • Add MO, AR, and LA, to complete the Mississippi line (347)
      • Add VA, NC, and TN (386)
      • Cap it off with AZ and CO (405)

      It's worth remembering, I think, that some recent polls have shown Kerry tied with Bush in MO and TN and within five points in NC, VA, and AZ.  I subscribe to the view that most undecided voters have decided against Bush but haven't yet made up their minds for Kerry.  When they do, I believe we'll see solid leads for Kerry in national polls and close races in some of the states at the bottom of my bullet list.

      I think two scenarios for the fall are equally likely: First, that Kerry will open up and retain a solid lead following the Dem convention.  Second, that the race will remain fairly close until after the debates, when the wheels come off Bush's bus.  In either case, I think we would see undecideds breaking hard toward Kerry.  

      And remember, the outcome in several of the states I have listed could be affected by big Kerry wins in states in the Eastern time zone.  If for instance, voters in the Midwest and farther are hearing by 7 PM Eastern time that Kerry is cleaning up--that he has won Florida and North Carolina and that Virginia is too close to call--many would-be Bush voters may decide to stay home.  I think Bush has a lot of reluctant supporters who may be looking for excuses not to vote for him.  This effect would be strongest in AZ and CO, though it could also have major effects in MO, AR, and LA.

      I'm not saying there aren't other scenarios or that they're less likely.  I'm just focusing on the scenarios I like best.  I'm a nail-biter, and I don't want to permanently scar my fingers this October.

      by deminva on Fri Jul 23, 2004 at 02:24:49 PM PDT

  •  From one Dem in VA

    to another: I like your name.

    by DynomiteUVA on Fri Jul 23, 2004 at 02:11:12 PM PDT

•  More good news

  Look at the poll closely. The Nader effect is no more. Nader actually helps us one percent more than it helps Bush in this poll.

  Good, Good News.

  by weathercoins on Fri Jul 23, 2004 at 01:45:27 PM PDT

  •  There was a lot of news in oregon

    about Repubs helping Nader, according to my dad in Portland. That may have iced him there.

    by decembersue on Fri Jul 23, 2004 at 03:32:45 PM PDT

•  I like Jon Stewart's

  names for the other agents besides Chalabi (agent Curveball) the administration must have relied on for Iraq intel: Agent Horseshit at Captain Icantbelieveyourenotfactcheckingthisowitz

  by Superribbie on Fri Jul 23, 2004 at 01:45:45 PM PDT

•  ARG

  is the one that had the weird California poll w/Bush 1% away from Kerry. I don't trust them.

  by JamesB3 on Fri Jul 23, 2004 at 02:10:55 PM PDT

  •  re:I Don't Trust Them, Either

    unless they show Kerry up.

    by deminva on Fri Jul 23, 2004 at 02:36:17 PM PDT